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为揭示供热负荷时间序列蕴含的内在动态特性,采用非线性分析方法对供热负荷时间序列混沌特性进行识别.以集中供热热源和热力站负荷时间序列为研究对象,进行相空间重构,求得了饱和关联维数和最大Lyapunov指数,验证了供热负荷时间序列的混沌特性,为供热负荷预报研究提供了混沌理论基础.针对现有供热负荷预报方法多为主观模型方法,本文提出了一种基于Volterra自适应滤波器的供热负荷预报方法,该方法不必事先建立主观模型,而直接根据负荷序列本身的特性进行预报,避免了负荷预报的人为主观性.最后,给出了供热负荷预报算例,仿真结果表明二阶Volterra自适应滤波器模型预报精度较高,可满足供热工程节能控制及热力调度的需要.
关键词:
供热节能
负荷预报
混沌
Volterra自适应滤波器 相似文献
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针对红外焦平面对辐射强度较大的目标输出动态范围不足的问题,提出了一种场景自适应的红外焦平面成像动态范围调整技术。包括3个方面的内容:从图像中提取目标灰度特征,获取动态范围自适应依据;结合最小均方自适应滤波算法,对调整依据进行滤波预测后给出调节值;把灰度调节值转换成电平值,利用电平值设置红外焦平面偏置电压完成焦平面成像动态范围自适应。最后,对整体方案进行了实验验证。通过在红外焦平面成像系统中实验证明了基于场景成像动态范围自适应方法的可行性,并获得了很好的效果,成像质量有明显提高。 相似文献
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A modified fractional least mean square algorithm for chaotic and nonstationary time series prediction
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A method of modifying the architecture of fractional least mean square (FLMS) algorithm is presented to work with nonlinear time series prediction. Here we incorporate an adjustable gain parameter in the weight adaptation equation of the original FLMS algorithm and absorb the gamma function in the fractional step size parameter. This approach provides an interesting achievement in the performance of the filter in terms of handling the nonlinear problems with less computational burden by avoiding the evaluation of complex gamma function. We call this new algorithm as the modified fractional least mean square (MFLMS) algorithm. The predictive performance for the nonlinear Mackey glass chaotic time series is observed and evaluated using the classical LMS, FLMS, kernel LMS, and proposed MFLMS adaptive filters. The simulation results for the time series with and without noise confirm the superiority and improvement in the prediction capability of the proposed MFLMS predictor over its counterparts. 相似文献
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为提高最大相关熵算法对混沌时间序列的预测速度和精度,提出了一种新的分数阶最大相关熵算法.在采用最大相关熵准则的基础上,利用分数阶微分设计了一种新的权重更新方法.在alpha噪声环境下,采用新的分数阶最大相关熵算法对Mackey-Glass和Lorenz两类具有代表性的混沌时间序列进行预测,并分析了分数阶的阶数对混沌时间序列预测性能的影响.仿真结果表明:与最小均方算法、最大相关熵算法以及分数阶最小均方算法三类自适应滤波算法相比,所提分数阶最大相关熵算法在混沌时间序列预测中能够有效地抑制非高斯脉冲噪声干扰的影响,具有较快收的敛速度和较低的稳态误差. 相似文献
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An adaptive filter for cancelling noise contained in the direct absorption spectra is reported. This technique takes advantage of the periodical nature of the repetitively scanned spectral signal, and requires no prior knowledge of the detailed properties of noises. An experimental system devised for measuring CH 4 is used to test the performance of the filter. The measurement results show that the signal-to-noise (S/N) value is improved by a factor of 2. A higher enhancement factor of the S/N value of 5.4 is obtained through open-air measurement owing to higher distortions of the raw data. In addition, the response time of this filter, which characterizes the real-time detection ability of the system, is nine times shorter than that of a conventional signal averaging solution, under the condition that the filter order is 100. 相似文献