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基于2000–2010年NECR/NECP的500 hPa位势场资料, 用EOF时空分解方法和动力模型重构思想, 通过遗传算法的全局优化搜索和并行计算途径, 开展了500 hPa位势场动力预报模型反演, 建立了刻画副高活动的非线性动力预报模型, 实现了副高活动的中长期预报. 模型预报试验表明, 该模型对副高的中长期活动, 尤其是异常活动能够较好地描述和预报, 进而为副高等复杂天气系统的预报探索了新的方法思路.
关键词:
副热带高压
500 hPa位势场
动力模型反演
遗传算法 相似文献
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针对副热带高压的动力预报模型难以准确构建的困难,基于T106数值预报产品500hPa位势高度场序列,用经验正交函数(EOF)分解方法对位势场序列进行了时、空分解,引入了动力系统重构思想,以EOF分解的空间模态的时间系数序列作为动力模型变量,用遗传算法全局搜索和并行计算优势,进行了动力模型参数的优化反演,建立了客观合理的非线性动力模型.通过对动力模型积分和EOF的时、空重构,实现了副热带高压的中、长期预报.试验结果表明.本文反演的动力模型的副热带高压预报效果优于常规的数值预报产品,该研究工作为副热带高压等复杂天气系缔和萼索场预报提供了新的方法恩路和技术途径. 相似文献
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该文的主要研究结果是当马氏链满足一致可数可加条件和漂移条件(V1)时,马氏链存在Harris分解,进一步证明了马氏链存在不变测度,最后给出了一个相关的例子. 相似文献
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To analyze the dynamic mechanism of unusual activities of the subtropical high, the space-time varible separation of the partial differential vortex equations is carried out with Galerkin methods based on the heat force and the whirl movement dissipation effect. Aiming at the subjective and man-made conventional method of choice in the space basis functions, we propose to combine the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis with the genetic algorithm to inverse the space basis functions from the actual sequence of fields. A group of trigonometric functions are chosen as a generalized space basis function. With the least-squares error of the basis function and EOF typical fields, and with the complete orthogonality of basis functions, we can get the dual-bound function. A genetic algorithm is then introduced to carry out surface fitting and coefficient optimization of the basis function. As a result, the objective and reasonable constant differential equation of the subtropical high is obtained by inversion. Finally, based on the obtained nonlinear dynamics model, the dynamic behavior and mechanism of the subtropical high is analyzed and discussed under the influence of heat force. We find that solar radiation and zonal differences in land and sea are important factors impacting the potential field and flow field changes of the subtropical areas. These factors lead to strength changes of the subtropical high and medium-term advance/retreat activities. The former is a gradual change, while the latter shows more break characteristics. Meaningful results are obtained in the analysis. 相似文献
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NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC MODEL RETRIEVAL OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH BASED ON EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION AND GENETIC ALGORITHM 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Aiming at the difficulty of accurately constructing the dynamic model of subtropical high, based on the potential height field time series over 500 hPa layer of T106 numerical forecast products, by using EOF(empirical orthogonal function) temporal-spatial separation technique, the disassembled EOF time coefficients series were regarded as dynamical model variables, and dynamic system retrieval idea as well as genetic algorithm were introduced to make dynamical model parameters optimization search, then, a reasonable non-linear dynamic model of EOF time-coefficients was established. By dynamic model integral and EOF temporal-spatial components assembly, a mid-/long-term forecast of subtropical high was carried out. The experimental results show that the forecast results of dynamic model are superior to that of general numerical model forecast results. A new modeling idea and forecast technique is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high. 相似文献
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IntroductionTheabnormalityboththeChinaweatherandtheWest_Pacificsubtropicalhigh (markedWPSH ,thefollowingisthesame)arecloselycorrelatedinsummerseason .Inrecentyears,someWPSHseasonalabnormalitysamplesofitslocationpersistingleaningnorthwardosouthwardwerestu… 相似文献
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为了分析研究副热带高压异常活动的动力学机理,基于热力强迫和涡动耗散效应的大气偏微涡度方程,采用Galerkin方法进行方程的时-空变量分离,针对常规方法在空间基函数选择中存在的主观人为性,提出从实际资料场序列中用经验正交函数(EOF)分解与遗传算法结合客观反演空间基函数的思想.选择一组三角函数族作为广义空间基函数,以该基函数与EOF典型场的误差最小二乘和基函数间的完备正交性构造双约束泛函,再引入遗传算法进行空间基函数曲面拟合和系数优化,反演得到客观合理的副热带高压常微动力模型.最后,基于所得非线性动力学模型,对热力强迫作用下的副热带高压的动力学行为和机理进行了分析和讨论,发现太阳辐射加热和纬向海陆热力差异是影响副热带地区位势和流场变化从而导致副高强弱变化和中期进退活动的重要因素,前者以渐变为主;后者则更多表现出突变的特性.通过分析,得到了一些有意义的结果. 相似文献