基于Copula的供应链金融质物组合价格风险测度研究

本文选取白银、铝和铜三种供应链金融质物作为研究对象,在分析三种质物收益率统计特征的基础上,引入Copula模型刻画供应链金融业务中质物收益率的“尖峰厚尾”特征以及质物收益率之间的非线性相关结构;采用Monte Carlo模拟方法测度考虑到极端情况下的质物组合价格风险值CVaR;利用时间平方根法则测度长周期视角下质物组合的价格风险。将CVaR与VaR测度结果进行对比,比较分析短期价格风险与长期价格风险,将Copula模型与传统风险测度方法下计算出的风险值进行对比,以期选取最优测度供应链金融质物组合长期价格风险模型。研究结果表明:从单一质物价格波动特征来看,三种单一质物的收益率均存在非正态分布和“尖峰厚尾”特征,具有一般金融资产收益率分布的特点。从模型的有效性来看,第一,CVaR比VaR能够更好地、全面地测度供应链金融质物组合的价格风险;第二,基于Copula模型的风险测度结果比传统集成风险测度结果的准确性高;第三,平方欧式距离法结果表明在五种Copula模型中,t-Copula是最优刻画供应链金融质物组合收益率间的相依关系的模型。从长短期风险测度结果来看,随着风险期限的增加,质物组合的价格风险值随之增大,以往研究中用短期风险测度往往会低估商业银行所面临的价格风险,不利于商业银行资金信贷的优化配置。得到的结论对我国商业银行开展供应链金融业务防范价格风险提供了量化支持。     

考虑策略型消费者和退货的零售商降价促销决策研究

基于零售商降价促销问题,引入策略型消费者,考虑到异质性消费者有可能对商品不满意,构建两期决策模型,旨在从退货和价格路径优化两方面提高零售商利润。研究给出(不)允许退货时,零售商面对策略型消费者的定价建议,指出零售商制定价格要在一定程度上参考商品类型。订货量相同时,给出策略型消费者降低零售商的期望利润的条件;面对短视型或者策略型消费者时,允许退货可在特定条件下提升零售商利润。消费者退货成本越高,对策略型消费者消极影响的抑制作用越明显,零售商的利润增长越显著。最后,通过数值算例分析了在两种退货决策以及不同退货成本下产品类型对零售商定价的影响,以及退货措施对策略型消费者消极影响的作用。     

基于双向长短期记忆网络的太赫兹光谱识别

特征提取是太赫兹光谱识别的关键处理步骤，通常利用降维方法作为特征提取手段。然而，当一些化合物的太赫兹光谱曲线整体差异度较小时，降维方法往往会缺失样本差异的重要特征信息，从而导致分类错误。如果不采用降维方法提取特征，传统机器学习分类算法对维数较高的原始太赫兹光谱数据又不能很好的分类。针对此问题，提出了一种基于双向长短期记忆网络（BLSTM-RNN）自动提取太赫兹光谱特征的识别方法。BLSTM-RNN作为一种特殊的循环神经网络，利用其LSTM单元可以有效解决原始太赫兹光谱数据维数较高使得模型难以训练问题。再结合模型的双向频谱信息利用架构模式，可以增强模型对复杂光谱数据自动提取有效特征信息的能力。采用三类、15种化合物太赫兹透射光谱作为测试对象，首先利用S-G滤波和三次样条插值对Anthraquinone，Benomyl和Carbazole等十五种化合物在0.9～6 THz内的太赫兹透射光谱数据进行归一化处理，然后通过构建一个具有双向长短期记忆的循环神经网络对太赫兹光谱的全频谱信息进行自动特征提取并利用Softmax分类器进行分类。通过试验优化网络结构和各项参数，最终获得了针对复杂太赫兹透射光谱数据的预测模型，并与传统机器学习算法SVM，KNN及神经网络算法MLP，CNN进行对比实验。结果表明，dataset-1和dataset-2分别作为差异度较大和无明显峰值特征的五种化合物太赫兹透射光谱数据集，其平均识别率分别为100%和98.51%，与其他方法相比识别率有所提高；最重要的是，dataset-3作为5种化合物谱线极为相似的太赫兹透射光谱数据集，其平均识别率为96.56%，与其他方法相比识别率提高显著；dataset-4作为dataset-1，dataset-2和dataset-3的透射光谱数据集集合，其平均识别率为98.87%。从而验证了BLSTM-RNN模型能自动提取有效的太赫兹光谱特征，同时又能保证复杂太赫兹光谱的预测精度。在选择模型训练优化算法方面，使用Adam优化算法要好于RMSProp，SGD和AdaGrad，其模型的目标函数损失值收敛速度最快。同时随着模型训练迭代次数增加，相似太赫兹透射光谱数据集的预测准确率也不断提升。可为复杂太赫兹光谱数据库的光谱识别检索提供一种新的识别方法。     

Separation between second price auctions with personalized reserves and the revenue optimal auction

When buyer valuations are drawn IID from a known regular distribution, a second price auction with a symmetric reserve price is the revenue-optimal single-item auction. When this distribution is irregular, we provide the first separation result showing that a second price auction with reserves earns at most 0.778 times the revenue of Myerson’s optimal auction, even when the reserves can be asymmetric. Since the lower bound is 0.745 for i.i.d. buyers, our result is nearly tight.     

Utility maximization problem with random endowment and transaction costs: when wealth may become negative

In this article, we study the problem of maximizing expected utility from the terminal wealth with proportional transaction costs and random endowment. In the context of the existence of consistent price systems, we consider the duality between the primal utility maximization problem and the dual one, which is set up on the domain of finitely additive measures. In particular, we prove duality results for utility functions supporting possibly negative values. Moreover, we construct a shadow market by the dual optimal process and consider the utility-based pricing for random endowment.     

On the construction of non-affine jump-diffusion models

We describe a method for construction of jump analogues of certain one-dimensional diffusion processes satisfying solvable stochastic differential equations. The method is based on the reduction of the original stochastic differential equations to the ones with linear diffusion coefficients, which are reducible to the associated ordinary differential equations, by using the appropriate integrating factor processes. The analogues are constructed by means of adding the jump components linearly into the reduced stochastic differential equations. We illustrate the method by constructing jump analogues of several diffusion processes and expand the notion of market price of risk to the resulting non-affine jump-diffusion models.     

粮食最低收购价政策问题研究

利用聚类分析、逐步回归分析确定小麦与稻谷种植面积模型和指标体系.建立综合指标评价模型和ARMA模型,可知:最低收购政策具有托市效应.结合时间趋势剔除法、蛛网模型,可知:小麦和稻谷价格波动呈现5、3年的周期性,分别满足发散型、收敛型蛛网形态.建立基于补偿法的最低收购价定价模型并用BP神经网络模型进行检验.基于反证法,推知调控最低收购价提高5%小麦种植面积的做法是不可行的.最后提出了调控粮食种植的建议·     

基于面板模型的商品房价格影响因素的实证研究

选取了我国30个省市2006~2015年的面板数据,应用面板数据计量模型回归的方法,基于R语言对影响商品房价格的因素进行实证研究.首先,经过Hausman检验与F检验确定面板数据的模型为混合估计模型;模型可以通过十折交叉验证法、残差正太性的检验、Q-Q图检验、变量间共线性的检验;最后经过逐步回归分析,结果表明土地价格、商品房销售面积、居民可支配收入、人均国内总产值财政收入占地区生产总值比重、汇率这6个指标对商品房价格都有显著性的影响.其中,土地价格和居民可支配收入对商品房价格的影响最为突出.     

Contract type and decision right of sales promotion in supply chain management with a capital constrained retailer

From the practices of Chinese consumer electronics market, we find there are two key issues in supply chain management: The first issue is the contract type of either wholesale price contracts or consignment contracts with revenue sharing, and the second issue is the decision right of sales promotion (such as advertising, on-site shopping assistance, rebates, and post-sales service) owned by either manufacturers or retailers. We model a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer who has limited capital and faces deterministic demand depending on retail price and sales promotion. The two issues interact with each other. We show that only the combination (called as chain business mode) of a consignment contract with the manufacturer’s right of sales promotion or a wholesale price contract with the retailer’s right of sales promotion is better for both members. Moreover, the latter chain business mode is realized only when the retailer has more power in the chain and has enough capital, otherwise the former one is realized. But which one is preferred by customers? We find that the former is preferred by customers who mainly enjoy low price, while the latter is preferred by those who enjoy high sales promotion level.     

Real-World Forward Rate Dynamics With Affine Realizations

We investigate the existence of affine realizations for Lévy driven interest rate term structure models under the real-world probability measure, which so far has only been studied under an assumed risk-neutral probability measure. For models driven by Wiener processes, all results obtained under the risk-neutral approach concerning the existence of affine realizations are transferred to the general case. A similar result holds true for models driven by compound Poisson processes with finite jump size distributions. However, in the presence of jumps with infinite activity we obtain severe restrictions on the structure of the market price of risk; typically, it must even be constant.