Solitary wave solutions of nonlinear financial markets :data-modeling-concept-practicing

This paper seeks to solve the difficult nonlinear problem in financial markets on the complex system theory and the nonlinear dynamics principle, with the data-model-concept-practice issue-oriented reconstruction of the phase space by the high frequency trade data. In theory, we have achieved the differentiable manifold geometry configuration, discovered the Yang-Mills functional in financial markets, obtained a meaningful conserved quantity through corresponding space-time non-Abel localization gauge symmetry transformation, and derived the financial solitons, which shows that there is a strict symmetry between manifold fiber bundle and guage field in financial markets. In practical applications of financial markets, we have repeatedly carried out experimental tests in a fluctuant evolvement, directly simulating and validating the existence of solitons by researching the price fluctuations (society phenomena) using the same methods and criterion as in natural science and in actual trade to test the stock Guangzhou Proprietary and the futures Fuel Oil in China. The results demonstrate that the financial solitons discovered indicates that there is a kind of new substance and form of energy existing in financial trade markets, which likely indicates a new science paradigm in the economy and society domains beyond physics.      

居民收入和消费预测的灰理论方法

阐述灰色模型GM(1,1)建立及检验的基本理论和方法.并依据2000年—2005年浙江农村居民人均纯收入和人均生活消费数据,利用GM(1,1)模型建模方法,对“十一五”期间浙江农民的纯收入和生活消费进行了预测.     

Stability of Markovian structure observed in high frequency foreign exchange data

Contrary to the common sense in economics and financial engineering, price fluctuations at very fine level of motion exhibit various evidences against the efficient market hypothesis. We attempt to investigate this issue by studying extensive amount of foreign currency exchange data for over five years at the finest level of resolution. We specifically focus on the proposed stability in binomial conditional probabilities originally found in much smaller examples of financial time series. In order to handle very large data, we have written an efficient program in C that automatically generates those conditional probabilities. It is found that the stability is maintained for extremely large time duration that covers almost the entire period. Based on the length of conditions for which the conditional probabilities are distinguishable each other, we identify the length of memory being less than 3 movements.     

农业供应链金融能有效缓解企业的融资约束？——涉农企业参与精准扶贫的实证研究

农业供应链金融为涉农企业融资难问题提供了新思路。本文以上市涉农上市企业2016~2018年的财务数据为样本,探讨了农业供应链金融对缓解企业融资约束的影响,以及涉农企业参与精准扶贫对缓解融资约束的调节作用。研究发现:涉农企业普遍面临融资约束问题,而农业供应链金融显著缓解了涉农企业的融资约束,且对参与精准扶贫企业的融资约束缓解更为显著。本文揭示了:农业供应链金融能有效缓解涉农企业的融资约束问题,再次证明了农业供应链金融缓解涉农企业融资约束的重要性和必要性,拓展了供应链金融研究的领域,同时对企业参与精准扶贫,响应新时期涉农企业社会责任的具体要求,形成政府、企业等共同承担社会责任的多元化减贫治理机制,助力乡村振兴提供相应借鉴。     

“东方经济”与中国乡村工业化的社会学机制—重访史国衡的个旧矿城研究

本文对“魁阁”社会学家史国衡1940年代在美访学期间的一部未刊稿《个旧矿城》进行了梳理与讨论。史国衡的个旧研究呈现了一个将产业、民情与治理相结合的综合进路,通过对个旧锡业兴衰的个案分析,揭示了传统“东方经济”模式的独特特征以及决定中国乡村工业化成败的社会学机制,同时也以个旧经验对现代化理论、人际关系学派等当时美国社会科学主流范式提出了反思。《个旧矿城》与另一部更为人所熟知的著作《昆厂劳工》共同构成了史国衡关于中国工业化研究的姊妹篇,“工业化的社会基础”是其中一以贯之的核心线索。对史国衡个旧矿城研究的“再发现”,有助于我们重新认识中国早期社会学的工业研究传统,同时也提示我们,当下的乡村工业化乃至乡村振兴仍然需要重视产业的社会基础,处理好经济转型与社会重组之间的辩证关系。     

Risk externalities and too big to fail

This paper establishes the case for a fallacy of economies of scale in large aggregate institutions and the effects of scale risks. The problem of rogue trading and excessive risk taking is taken as a case example. Assuming (conservatively) that a firm exposure and losses are limited to its capital while external losses are unbounded, we establish a condition for a firm not to be allowed to be too big to fail. In such a case, the expected external losses second derivative with respect to the firm capital at risk is positive. Examples and analytical results are obtained based on simplifying assumptions and focusing exclusively on the risk externalities that firms too big to fail can have.     

Observation of chimera patterns in a network of symmetric chaotic finance systems

The economic and financial systems consist of many nonlinear factors that make them behave as the complex systems. Recently many chaotic finance systems have been proposed to study the complex dynamics of finance as a noticeable problem in economics. In fact, the intricate structure between financial institutions can be obtained by using a network of financial systems. Therefore, in this paper, we consider a ring network of coupled symmetric chaotic finance systems, and investigate its behavior by varying the coupling parameters. The results show that the coupling strength and range have significant effects on the behavior of the coupled systems, and various patterns such as the chimera and multi-chimera states are observed. Furthermore, changing the parameters' values, remarkably influences on the oscillators attractors. When several synchronous clusters are formed, the attractors of the synchronized oscillators are symmetric, but different from the single oscillator attractor.     

我国A股房地产板块羊群效应研究

借助CSAD模型、马尔科夫转换模型和GARCH模型的研究结果表明我国A股房地产板块存在明显的羊群效应且存在如下特点:非对称性,扩张期较衰退期更为显著;规模差异性,大盘股较中小盘股更为显著;房地产调控政策影响的非对称性,紧缩政策较之宽松政策会诱发更加明显的羊群效应;产业链传染性,上下游行业中的羊群效应产生影响.非系统性风险和系统性风险都对A股房地产板块羊群效应产生了促进影响,且系统性风险的影响较大.     

国外保险定价的发展及其对我国的借鉴

回顾国外保险定价的发展概况，介绍两种重要的金融定价模型资本资产定价模型和期权定价模型及其在保险定价中的应用，并就我国保险业借鉴国外保险定价先进的思想、方法和技术，发展和完善我国保险定价工作提出建议。     

Explicit Solution of a Non-Linear Filtering Problem for Lévy Processes with Application to Finance

In this paper we explicitly solve a non-linear filtering problem with mixed observations, modelled by a Brownian motion and a generalized Cox process, whose jump intensity is given in terms of a Lévy measure. Motivated by empirical observations of R. Cont and P. Tankov we propose a model for financial assets, which captures the phenomenon of time inhomogeneity of the jump size density. We apply the explicit formula to obtain the optimal filter for the corresponding filtering problem.