超高效液相色谱-串联质谱法测定蜂蜜中抗生素和农药浓度

基于快速有效的基质净化方法,结合超高效液相色谱-串联质谱技术,建立了测定蜂蜜中39种抗生素及25种农药的检测方法.蜂蜜样品经乙腈+水(v/v=8:2)提取,用PRiME HLB净化,超高效液相色谱-串联质谱(ultraperformance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry,UPLC-MS/MS)分析测定,通过多反应监测模式(MRM)分析目标化合物,并进行基质标准曲线定量.在测定浓度范围内呈良好线性关系,相关系数大于0.99;农兽药的检出限为0.02~3.8μg·kg~(-1),定量限为0.1~11.5μg·kg~(-1);在3档浓度的添加回收实验中,39种抗生素的回收率在72%~119%内,25种农药的回收率在72%~115%内,相对标准偏差均小于15%.随机抽取浙江市场上在售的52份蜂蜜样进行检测分析和膳食暴露评估,共检出罗红霉素、诺氟沙星和环丙沙星3种抗生素,检出率分别为2.6%,8.6%和3.9%,浓度分别为59.6~214.4,4.7~1 486.3和5.9~215.1μg·kg~(-1).膳食暴露评估结果表明,蜂蜜中抗生素残留对10岁以下组群的风险高于其他组群、女性消费者高于男性消费者;%ADI100,说明膳食暴露评估风险水平尚可接受.因在计算中存在诸多不确定性因素,对组群的风险评估尚需进一步分析.     

2型糖尿病并发大血管病变的危险因素分析与自我管理

探讨2型糖尿病合并大血管病变的相关危险致病因素, 以期指导制定自我管理方案. 采用回顾性病例-对照研究方法, 选2型糖尿病患者85例, 根据是否合并大血管病变, 分为单纯2型糖尿病组(T2DM组, n=41)及合并大血管病变组(T2DM+MV组, n=44), 选同期的40例非糖尿病患者作为对照, 比较各组患者的一般资料及入院时的血压、血清镁、空腹血糖、糖化血红蛋白和血脂水平等参数. 结果表明 糖尿病病程(比值比(OR)=1.268, 95%置信区间(CI) 1.076~1.496)、空腹血糖(OR=2.147, 95% CI 1.167~3.949)及糖化血红蛋白水平(OR=4.936, 95% CI 1.575~15.470)是2型糖尿病患者并发大血管病变的独立危险因素, 而血清镁水平则是独立保护性因素(OR=0.001, 95% CI 0.000~0.014). 同时表明, 在2型糖尿病早期自我管理中, 积极控制血糖及维持血清镁在较高水平是预防大血管病变的有效途径.     

Transmission of macroeconomic shocks to risk parameters: Their uses in stress testing

In this paper, we are interested in evaluating the resilience of financial portfolios under extreme economic conditions. Therefore, we use empirical measures to characterize the transmission process of macroeconomic shocks to risk parameters. We propose the use of an extensive family of models, called General Transfer Function Models, which condense well the characteristics of the transmission described by the impact measures. The procedure for estimating the parameters of these models is described employing the Bayesian approach and using the prior information provided by the impact measures. In addition, we illustrate the use of the estimated models from the credit risk data of a portfolio.     

基于贝叶斯网络的船舶港口国监督检查滞留风险研究

针对港口国监督(Port State Control, PSC)检查的复杂性和不确定性, 基于贝叶斯网络理论构建船舶PSC检查滞留风险分析模型. 以东京备忘录(Tokyo MOU)中2014~2017年船舶PSC检查样本数据为基础, 运用R语言bnlearn包进行贝叶斯网络的结构及参数学习. 同时分别执行贝叶斯网络的正向、逆向推理, 定量表示各风险因素与滞留结果之间的相互作用关系, 找出导致船舶滞留的高风险因素, 实现不确定环境下船舶PSC检查滞留风险的全面动态分析. 实证表明, 模型具有较高的精确度, 可为检查人员的滞留决策及航运公司的安全风险管理提供有效依据.     

基于公众偏好大数据分析的重大突发事件应急决策方案动态调整方法

针对在重大突发事件应急过程中如何根据与其相关的公众偏好大数据信息来对事件进行划分以及确定事件风险大小等问题,提出了一种基于公众偏好大数据分析的两阶段聚类算法,将事件现场公众在社交媒体上发布的偏好大数据信息进行聚类分析,识别出多个与事件相关的子事件,并得出每个子事件的客观风险级别。然后,结合专家经验判断,综合得出每个子事件的风险级别,进而选择相对应的方案。在此基础上,根据实际突发事件多阶段演变特点,描述了应急决策中多事件多方案的动态调整过程,考虑方案之间的相关性和不同子事件调整方案对各风险级别子事件的应急处置效果、应对损失以及不同方案之间的转化成本等因素,得出不同情境下的最佳调整方案。通过案例分析说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Determination,residue and risk assessment of trifloxystrobin,trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in Chinese rice consumption

A simple and rapid analytical method for the detection of trifloxystrobin, trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in soil, brown rice, paddy plants and rice hulls was established and validated by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Acceptable linearity (R² > 0.99), accuracy (average recoveries of 74.3–108.5%) and precision (intra- and inter-day relative standard deviations of 0.9–8.8%) were obtained using the developed determination approach. In the field trial, the half-lives of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in paddy plants were 5.7–8.3 days in three locations throughout China, and the terminal residue concentrations of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole were <100 and 500 μg/kg (maximum residue limits set by China), respectively, at harvest, which indicated that, based on the recommended application procedure, trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole are safe for use on rice. The risk assessment results demonstrated that, owing to risk quotient values of both fungicides being <100%, the potential risk of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole on rice was acceptable for Chinese consumers. These data could provide supporting information for the proper use and safety evaluation of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in rice.     

基于Aspen Plus耦合生命周期评价的科研案例在环境工程原理教学中的应用

将化工流程模拟Aspen Plus软件与环境影响评估领域常用的生命周期评价(LCA)进行集成应用,围绕环境工程原理教学中有关化工过程质量能量衡算与环境污染防治内容的协同应用与拓展,构建化工流程模拟-环境风险评估科研案例“苯酐生产流程模拟及环境风险研究”,并将其作为环境工程原理的综合教学案例。教学实践经验表明,通过引入工程相关综合教学案例,不仅使得抽象的理论知识更加生动具体,而且在深化学生对课程理论知识理解的同时,提高学生应用专业知识分析和解决化工生产环境污染工程问题的综合能力和素质,为学生将来步入相关领域工作奠定扎实的基础。     

Atheroprotective potentials of curcuminoids against ginger extract in hypercholesterolaemic rabbits

The anti-atherogenic potentials of total ginger (Zingiber officinale) extract (TGE) or curcuminoids extracted from turmeric (Curcuma longa), members of family Zingiberaceae, were compared in hypercholesterolaemia. Rabbits were fed either normal or atherogenic diet. The rabbits on atherogenic diet received treatments with TGE or curcumenoids and placebo concurrently for 6 weeks (n = 6). The anti-atherogenic effects of curcuminoids and ginger are mediated via multiple mechanisms. This effect was correlated with their ability to lower cholesteryl ester transfer protein activity. Ginger extract exerted preferential effects on plasma lipids, reverse cholesterol transport, cholesterol synthesis and inflammatory status. Curcuminoids, however, showed superior antioxidant activity.     

云南东川区域重金属环境暴露健康风险评价

以云南省昆明市东川主要河流及附近土壤、植物为研究对象,对其进行采样分析,并根据美国环境保护署(U.S.EPA)推荐健康风险评价方法对东川流域多种环境因素进行了重金属的健康风险评价。结果表明,水环境中致癌物质造成的风险最大,风险值在2.35×10^(-4)~8.27×10^(-4),达到U.S.EPA推荐的最大值10^(-4),植物根部的健康风险值为0.40×10^(-1)~7.00×10^(-1),茎叶部分的风险值为2.42×10^(-2)~15.24×10^(-2),根部存在的重金属对人体的健康风险约为茎叶部分的5倍;土壤中非致癌物质的健康风险影响较大,总健康风险值区间为0.64×10^(-1)~3.83×10^(-1)。评价结果可为该区域地表水、土壤和植物资源的污染治理、保护开发提供依据。