运用系统动力学模型预测稀土战略储备规模

基于全球稀土资源的供需形势和中国稀土资源减少的趋势,运用系统动力学的模型来预测未来17年我国稀土资源储备量。选取了2000~2013的生产和消费数据,通过定量模拟计算中国稀土供需差波动系数,设计了稀土资源供需差波动范围分别为0%,20%的两个方案,模拟计算了两个方案的年储备量、累计储备量和储备量绝对值。方案一范围是(-0%,+0%),仿真预测出稀土未来17年累积储备量为720551 t,即战略储备规模达到720551 t,该方案下不论供需差发生如何波动,国家都会进行储备或释放调节;方案二范围是(-20%,+20%),预测出未来17年战略储备规模为461331 t,国家只需在这个范围外进行收储释放调节,从而调节市场供求,降低价格波动幅度。本文从不同供需差的波动系数来模拟计算储备量,目的是为国家相关部门在进行稀土储备决策时提供参考,可以根据我国经济景气状况和供需形势,以及稀土产业发展状况,进行不同规模的稀土储备。     

Nonlinear reserving and multiple contract modifications in life insurance

Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circularity and make cash flows and prospective reserves well-defined. In Markovian models, the (stochastic) Thiele equation and the Cantelli Theorem are the standard tools for solving the circularity issue and for maintaining actuarial equivalence. This paper expands the stochastic Thiele equation and the Cantelli Theorem to non-Markovian frameworks and presents a recursive scheme for the calculation of multiple contract modifications.     

基于区间二型梯形模糊集的应急物资储备动态协同决策模型

重大灾害下应急物资储备决策是阻止突发灾难蔓延的有效手段之一。针对救灾信息具备不确定性与复杂性特点,构建基于区间二型梯形模糊集的应急物资储备动态协同决策模型,并给出应急物资储备策略。利用区间二型模糊集理论的决策方案并结合比例分析法(COPRAS),构建常态环境下应急物资供应商选择的群决策模型,解决不相容群决策属性之间的冲突问题;进而,充分考虑“救灾阶段性动态时间因素”对储备决策的影响,构建动态救灾环境下应急物资储备结构模糊优化模型,实现常态决策与非常态应急决策之间的动态协同;最后,以2012年云南丽江“6.14”突发特大山洪灾害为实例进行数值分析,验证该动态协同决策模型的合理性与可行性,能有效解决动态救灾环境下应急物资储备结构优化问题。     

应用模糊综合评判方法优选非均质油藏调剖井和层

通过注水保持油层压力的方法开发非均质油藏,不可避免会造成油井含水或部分油井水淹.注入水窜入油井时,不管低渗透层是否受到开发,大部分注入水进入到高渗透层,因而使低渗透层在开发过程中采油速度很慢,或是基本未投入生产.为了降低产水量,保持或提高采油量,必须对已开发的非均质油藏实施相应的堵水调剖措施,防止注入水沿高渗透带水锥突进到油井,影响水驱采收率.本文建立了应用模糊综合评判方法优选非均质油藏调剖井和层的数学模型,通过实例分析表明,运用综合评判方法优选调剖井和层是一种客观有效的方法,该评价方法计算方便,易于操作和推广.     

折现的未决赔款准备金估计的随机逼近

凸序意义下的随机界是估计具有相依性随机变量和分布的良好工具.在考虑货币时间价值的基础上,通过随机上下界的两种不同形式的凸组合对未决赔款准备金的估计进行逼近,并通过矩匹配法,给出了最优权数的计算公式.通过一个实例对所述方法进行验证.     

实时定期人寿保险的破产模型及破产概率的计算

研究定期人寿保险中破产风险问题。建立了该类问题的数学模型,并分析其结构特征,推导破产概率的计算公式,并设计其计算方法。同以往模型相比,新模型的建立考虑了初始准备金的利息积累和任何时刻的新投保人的加入,采用了新的分组方式。这种新模型更加真实地刻画了实际过程,保证了传统模型中常用的某些假设得到了满足。     

The maximum surplus in a finite‐time interval for a discrete‐time risk model with exchangeable,dependent claim occurrences

This paper investigates a discrete‐time risk model that involves exchangeable dependent loss generating claim occurrences and compound binomially distributed aggregate loss amounts. First, a general framework is presented to derive the distribution of a surplus sequence using the model. This framework is then applied to obtain the distribution of any function of a surplus sequence in a finite‐time interval. Specifically, the distribution of the maximum surplus is obtained under nonruin conditions. Based on this distribution, the computation of the minimum surplus distribution is given. Asset and risk management–oriented implications are discussed for the obtained distributions based on numerical evaluations. In addition, comparisons are made involving the corresponding results of the classical discrete‐time compound binomial risk model, for which claim occurrences are independent and identically distributed.     

一种高分辨率遥感影像水体提取技术

针对高分辨率影像水体信息提取,利用小波技术对图像进行膨胀和去噪处理,并提出了一种多窗口线性保持技术对线性水体进行保持,最后利用水体信息的地学特征,对图像进行联合特征去噪,获取最终的水体影像信息.利用以上技术,成功提取了浙江省嵊州市甘霖镇IKONOS全色影像中的水体信息,提取精度达到94.92%,错误率为9.01%,与传统密度分割、监督分类等方法相比较,此算法具有高精度、低噪声、高信噪比的优点.     

A risk model driven by Lévy processes

We present a general risk model where the aggregate claims, as well as the premium function, evolve by jumps. This is achieved by incorporating a Lévy process into the model. This seeks to account for the discrete nature of claims and asset prices. We give several explicit examples of Lévy processes that can be used to drive a risk model. This allows us to incorporate aggregate claims and premium fluctuations in the same process. We discuss important features of such processes and their relevance to risk modeling. We also extend classical results on ruin probabilities to this model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

外汇储备规模与多元变量弹性系数的实证研究

中国外汇储备近几年的迅速增长引发了关于中国外汇储备规模是否适度的广泛讨论。本文从需求的角度,运用计量经济学的多元线性回归的方法,建立中国外汇储备与平均进口倾向、进口和国际收支三变量的双对数模型,通过计算并通过相关检验得到外汇储备与相关变量的弹性系数。为预测和制定相关政策提供依据。