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1.
加权几何平均组合预测模型及其应用   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
本文提出了由几个不同的预测模型通过加权几何平均的方式进行组合从而得到加权几何平均组合预测模型,给出了确定最优权系数的方法。最后,以应用实例说明了我们的组合预测模型比加权算术平均组合预测模型更优越。  相似文献
2.
一种新的非线性模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
对于复杂工业系统非线性时间序列预测精度不高问题,引入了多种预测方法的预测相对误差、预测对象的变化趋势、灰色基本权重和自适应调节系数等概念,建立了模糊自适应变权重非线性组合预测模型。结果表明,此模糊自适应变权重非线性组合预测模型的精度较高,并且平均误差和预测平方根误差均较小。该组合预测模型为复杂非线性工业系统所需决策提供了有力支持。  相似文献
3.
Numerical evaluation of performance measures in heavy-tailed risk models is an important and challenging problem. In this paper, we construct very accurate approximations of such performance measures that provide small absolute and relative errors. Motivated by statistical analysis, we assume that the claim sizes are a mixture of a phase-type and a heavy-tailed distribution and with the aid of perturbation analysis we derive a series expansion for the performance measure under consideration. Our proposed approximations consist of the first two terms of this series expansion, where the first term is a phase-type approximation of our measure. We refer to our approximations collectively as corrected phase-type approximations. We show that the corrected phase-type approximations exhibit a nice behavior both in finite and infinite time horizon, and we check their accuracy through numerical experiments.  相似文献
4.
Relative error rather than the error itself is of the main interest in many practical applications. Criteria based on minimizing the sum of absolute relative errors (MRE) and the sum of squared relative errors (RLS) were proposed in the different areas. Motivated by K. Chen et al.’s recent work [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 2010, 105: 1104–1112] on the least absolute relative error (LARE) estimation for the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, in this paper, we establish the connection between relative error estimators and the M-estimation in the linear model. This connection allows us to deduce the asymptotic properties of many relative error estimators (e.g., LARE) by the well-developed M-estimation theories. On the other hand, the asymptotic properties of some important estimators (e.g., MRE and RLS) cannot be established directly. In this paper, we propose a general relative error criterion (GREC) for estimating the unknown parameter in the AFT model. Then we develop the approaches to deal with the asymptotic normalities for M-estimators with differentiable loss functions on ? or ?\{0} in the linear model. The simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimates for the different scenarios. Illustration with a real data example is also provided.  相似文献
5.
围绕两个典型迭代数列的构造问题,以问题为驱动,提出一种生成迭代数列的新方法,并通过数值实验或理论证明验证迭代数列的收敛性.  相似文献
6.
This article presents a solver for delay differential equations (DDEs) called HBO414DDE based on a hybrid variable-step variable-order 3-stage Hermite-Birkhoff-Obrechkoff ODE solver of order 4 to 14. The current version of our method solves DDEs with state dependent, non-vanishing, small, vanishing and asymptotically vanishing delays, except neutral type and initial value DDEs. Delayed values are computed using Hermite interpolation, small delays are dealt with by extrapolation, and discontinuities are located by a bisection method. HBO414DDE was tested on several problems and results were compared with those of known solvers like SYSDEL and the recent Matlab DDE solver ddesd and statistics show that it gives, most of the time, a smaller relative error than the other solvers for the same number of function evaluations.  相似文献
7.
针对灰色Verhulst模型的不足,讨论了灰色Verhulst模型的参数优化问题.首先,利用最小二乘原理给出了一种初值优化的改进模型.其次,在平均相对误差最小准则下,将Verhulst模型的参数优化转化为线性规划问题,然后利用粒子群优化算法估计Verhulst模型中的参数,得到另外一种改进模型.最后,给出了一个仿真实例,结果表明灰色Verhulst模型的改进方法是可行的和有效的,而且具有较高的拟合和预测精度.  相似文献
8.
针对星间激光比对GPS相对定位精度结果的精确性和可信度问题,研究了星间激光比对GPS相对定位精度数据量的确定方法;运用数理统计方法推导了相对误差、置信水平和数据量之间的概率不等式;为实现激光比对结果的精确性、可信度和数据量选取的综合权衡提供了量化分析手段,仿真结果验证了该方法的正确性和有效性.  相似文献
9.
对《微积分快餐》中主要概念(相对误差)、定理(基本定理)和应用(面积)做了剖析.  相似文献
10.
通过仿真实例,对BP网络和RBF网络在期货预测应用上的表现性能进行了比较研究,仿真结果表明,BP网络更适合于期货市场价格预测.实际的期货预测应用中,此结论可指导神经网络模型的选择.  相似文献
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