基于演化博弈的公共交通、共享汽车与私家车的博弈分析

出行者的选择行为分析是交通系统中的一项重要内容,随着城市的发展,交通出行方式大体分为三大类:公共交通出行、辅助公共交通出行和私人交通出行。本文在以往的研究基础上,采用演化博弈的方法研究公共交通、共享汽车以及私家车三者之间的博弈关系,模拟出行者的选择行为,分析博弈均衡点稳定性及参数条件。通过模型仿真实验,演化结果中各项比例大小取决于各项收益、补贴、损失以及额外收益,要增加公共交通的配套设施,增收拥堵费以及增加对共享汽车的补贴及配套服务。     

目的地型饭店品牌体验与顾客满意度关系研究

以目的地型饭店这一新兴饭店业态作为研究对象,从顾客感知层面研究目的地型饭店品牌体验与顾客感知价值以及顾客满意度之间的关系.通过问卷调查获取相关数据,并用SPSS 19.0与AMOS 17.0统计分析软件进行数据分析,得到了以下结论:①目的地型饭店具有旅游休闲吸引力,能够吸引顾客离开常住地到此作短暂停留;②目的地型饭店顾客的消费动机并非单纯食宿,而是更加关注全方位的度假休闲体验;③在品牌体验的5个维度中,关联体验对顾客感知价值与满意度具有最显著影响,而思考体验则最不显著.在此基础上,提出了有效提升目的地型饭店顾客满意度的管理建议.     

基于灰色聚类分析的风险评价方法研究——以江苏民间资本进入金融领域风险评价为例

运用灰色系统理论,结合AHP方法,建立灰色聚类分析模型,对风险进行评价,并以江苏民间资本进入金融领域风险评价为例进行研究.结果表明,民间资本进入金融领域的风险属于高风险范畴,其中进入风险中的产业风险和社会风险属于高风险,信用风险属于较高风险,政治风险属于中等风险.并针对上述风险的等级,提出了相应的政策建议.模型具有一定的实用价值,它对于正确认识民间资本进入金融领域的风险和有针对性地制定相应的政策措施具有一定的理论和现实意义.     

一种无密钥托管的移动IPv6网络匿名密钥分发协议

针对基于身份的密码体制IBE中固有的密钥托管问题,本文提出了一个移动IPv6网络环境中的无密钥托管匿名密钥生成机制与分发协议.该机制将节点身份认证和密钥生成与分发这两个过程分离,利用不可区分性匿名密文安全性在PKG不知道节点地址的情况下分发私钥给经过身份认证的节点,使得私钥生成中心或认证中心即使被单独攻破,攻击者也无法实现身份碰撞.可将身份认证中心部署于家乡服务器,而将PKG离线部署.经安全性分析,协议有效解决了移动IPv6网络中基于身份密码体制的密钥托管问题.     

EFFECT OF FORESTLAND AVAILABILITY BY OWNERSHIP TYPE ON LICENSE SALES FOR HUNTING: A SPATIAL APPROACH

Abstract The effect of forestland availability under different ownership types on license sales for hunting in nine Southeastern states is empirically evaluated. An equation that represents license sales for hunting is estimated assuming the sale of hunting licenses in a particular county is related to the characteristics of that county as well as the characteristics and license sales for hunting in its neighboring counties. The positive effects of the amounts of both national and private forestland on license sales reaffirm the potential benefits of maintaining forestland to stimulate hunting. The positive spillover effect of national forests on license sales for hunting suggests that availability and close access to hunting in national forests within neighboring counties are important in supporting hunting license sales in a county. This study contributes to the general understanding of the drivers affecting individuals’ decisions to use natural resources for hunting. Advances in natural resource modeling, specifically the spatial process model and geospatial data used in this research, make it possible to examine the interactions between the spatial dynamics and ownership attributes of the natural system, allowing policy makers to design natural resource management practices that respond to a system characterized by these interactions.     

从客户视角研究微型付款模式对企业绩效的影响

基于客户资产理论,从客户视角研究微型付款模式影响企业绩效的机制进行研究.采用问卷设计和数据收集方式,研究共回收有效问卷2260份.通过对这2260份有效问卷进行信度和效度检验、描述性统计分析、相关分析和多元回归分析,对关于微型付款模式影响企业绩效的假设进行实证,找出客户视角微型付款模式影响企业绩效的机制.     

基于三维荧光光谱和四元数主成分分析的食醋品牌溯源研究

提出基于四元数主成分分析的三维荧光光谱特征提取新方法，并将其运用于品牌食醋溯源研究。首先利用F7000荧光光谱仪测得不同品牌食醋样本的三维荧光光谱数据，获取样本的等高线图和三维投影图，并进行三维荧光等高线图分析；然后利用激发波长分别为380，360和400 nm下的发射光谱数据建立食醋三维荧光光谱数据的四元数并行表示模型，对四元数荧光光谱矩阵进行四元数主成分特征提取，并基于乘积运算、模值运算和求和运算三种方法对提取出来的四元数主成分特征进行特征融合；最后将融合特征作为K近邻分类器的输入，得到不同食醋品牌的最优分类模型。分别讨论三种不同特征融合方法和四元数主成分个数与最终模型分类正确率之间的关系。针对四个不同食醋品牌120个样本的分析结果可得：基于求和特征融合运算所得到的融合特征可以利用最少的特征数目，建立最优的溯源模型，样本预测集溯源正确率可达100%。研究结果表明：四元数主成分特征提取和特征融合方法能够并行表示三维荧光光谱数据所蕴含的丰富信息，为三维荧光光谱数据分析提供新思路。     

Cryptanalysis and Improvement of Quantum Private Comparison Protocol Based on Bell Entangled States

Recently, Liu et al. [Commun. Theor. Phys. 57(2012) 583] proposed a quantum private comparison protocol based on entanglement swapping of Bell states, which aims to securely compare the equality of two participants' information with the help of a semi-honest third party(TP). However, the present study points out there is a fatal loophole in Liu et al.'s protocol, and TP can make Bell-basis measurement to know all the participants' secret inputs without being detected. To fix the problem, a simple solution, which uses one-time eavesdropper checking with decoy photons instead of twice eavesdropper checking with Bell states, is demonstrated. Compared with the original protocol,it not only reduces the Bell states consumption but also simplifies the protocol steps.     

机构投资者增持的经济后果:基于定向增发的实证研究

定向增发背景下,对机构投资者增持行为经济后果展开研究具有重要的现实意义。以2008-2017年我国沪深A股成功进行定向增发的上市公司为样本,本研究采用OLS、POISSON、PSM等方法对机构投资者增持的经济后果及机理进行实证分析与稳健性检验。结果表明:机构投资者整体增持与定向增发上市公司的长期市场表现正相关。考虑机构投资者异质性特征并做进一步分析,价值投资型机构投资者增持行为通过提升企业创新水平显著提升了定向增发上市公司长期市场表现;由于追求短期股权价值波动收益,价格追随型机构投资者增持行为则不利于定向增发上市公司长期市场表现;限售期规定能够有效遏制价格追随型机构投资者的“追涨杀跌”行为。本研究为我国中长期价值投资型机构投资者培育、定向增发资源配置效率提升提供了理论依据。     

Forecasting retained earnings of privately held companies with PCA and L1 regression

We use proprietary data collected by SVB Analytics, an affiliate of Silicon Valley Bank, to forecast the retained earnings of privately held companies. Combining methods of principal component analysis (PCA) and L¹/quantile regression, we build multivariate linear models that feature excellent in‐sample fit and strong out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy. The combined PCA and L¹ technique effectively deals with multicollinearity and non‐normality of the data, and also performs favorably when compared against a variety of other models. Additionally, we propose a variable ranking procedure that explains which variables from the current quarter are most predictive of the next quarter's retained earnings. We fit models to the top five variables identified by the ranking procedure and thereby, discover interpretable models with excellent out‐of‐sample performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.