OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF A VULNERABLE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE

It is assumed that the probability of destruction of a biological asset by natural hazards can be reduced through investment in protection. Specifically a model, in which the hazard rate depends on both the age of the asset and the accumulated invested protection capital, is assumed. The protection capital depreciates through time and its effectiveness in reducing the hazard rate is subject to diminishing returns. It is shown how the investment schedule to maximize the expected net present value of the asset can be determined using the methods of deterministic optimal control, with the survival probability regarded as a state variable. The optimal investment pattern involves “bang-bang-singular” control. A numerical scheme for determining jointly the optimal investment policy and the optimal harvest (or replacement) age is outlined and a numerical example involving forest fire protection is given.     

Estimating household purchase rates for consumer nondurable goods

Understanding the purchase rates of households for frequently purchased packaged goods is an important element in developing effective marketing strategies. Previous researchers have attempted to estimate these rates by assuming that the time between purchases is a random variable that follows some common parametric probability distribution such as the exponential or Weibull distribution. Recent research has shown that for many frequently purchased packaged goods, the interpurchase times cannot be adequately described by these commonly used probability distributions. In this study we demonstrate how household purchase rates can be estimated in a robust manner using a generalized semiparametric approach that obviates the need for specifying a parametric form for the distribution of interpurchase times. The motivation being that often there is no theory of household purchase behaviour that specifies a priori the probability distribution underlying the interpurchase times. Our empirical results indicate that, for the data analysed, the household purchase rates exhibit a regular pattern that cannot be recovered by probability distributions often used in previous research. Further, marketing actions taken by sellers do indeed influence household purchase behaviour.     

The Use of Adiabatic Calorimetry for the Process Analysis and Safety Evaluation in Free Radical Polymerization

Adiabatic calorimetry is a technique that has been introduced as an important approach to hazard evaluation of exothermically reactive systems. In this paper the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate (MMA) has been studied. One of the most important aspects of MMA polymerization is its exothermicity and autoaccelerating behaviour, these characteristics can generate the occurrence of a runaway reaction.In a runaway situation the reacting system is close to adiabatic behaviour because it is unable to eliminate the heat that is being generated. An even worse situation can be reproduced in the laboratory with the Phi-Tec pseudo-adiabatic calorimeter. Process design parameters that are usually calculated from thermodynamic data or using semiempirical rules, such as adiabatic temperature rise or maximum attainable pressure, can be directly determined.The existence of the ceiling temperature has been experimentally demonstrated.This revised version was published online in November 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

How Does Diet Influence Our Lives? Evaluating the Relationship between Isotopic Signatures and Mortality Patterns in Italian Roman Imperial and Medieval Periods

The present research investigates the relationship between dietary habits and mortality patterns in the Roman Imperial and Medieval periods. The reconstructions of population dynamics and subsistence strategies provide a fascinating source of information for understanding our history. This is particularly true given that the changes in social, economic, political, and religious aspects related to the transition from the Roman period to the Middle Ages have been widely discussed. We analyzed the isotopic and mortality patterns of 616 individuals from 18 archeological sites (the Medieval Latium sites of Colonna, Santa Severa, Allumiere, Cencelle, and 14 Medieval and Imperial funerary contexts from Rome) to compile a survivorship analysis. A semi-parametric approach was applied, suggesting variations in mortality patterns between sexes in the Roman period. Nitrogen isotopic signatures influenced mortality in both periods, showing a quadratic and a linear effect for Roman Imperial and Medieval populations, respectively. No influence of carbon isotopic signatures has been detected for Roman Imperial populations. Conversely, increased mortality risk for rising carbon isotopic values was observed in Medieval samples.     

Hazard in reaction of titanium raw materials with sulphuric acid

The reaction of ilmenite titanium raw material with sulphuric acid was investigated in ‘hazard’ type calorimetric system. The investigations show the essential influence of initial temperature, particle size distribution and concentration of sulphuric acid on rate and heat power of reaction and determine the limits of safety of the process and also its efficiency.     

Strong limit theorems for oscillation moduli of PL-process and cumulative hazard process under truncation and censorship with applications

In this paper we obtain exact rates of uniform convergence for oscillation moduli and Lipschitz-1/2 moduli of PL-process and cumulative hazard process when the data are subject to left truncation and right censorship. Based on these results, the exact rates of uniform convergence for various types of density and hazard function estimators are derived. Research supported by the Postdoctoral Programme Foundation and the National Natural Science Foundation of China     

Behavior of the surface of a bubbly liquid after detonation wave impact

In safety engineering, one position of interest inside heterogeneous systems of the type liquid–gas is the contact surface between these two phases. Under certain conditions, e.g. shock wave impact, phenomena can take place at this position that can have a significant influence on the explosion behavior of the system. In this work an investigation is presented about the existence of such phenomena on the surface of liquid cyclohexane with or without the existence of oxygen containing bubbles. The observations have been performed during the time before, as well as after, a detonation wave reflection on that surface. High-speed pressure and optical measurements have been applied. Apart from the experimental observations, also a theoretical analysis and discussion is presented in this contribution, which contains the comparison between calculated and experimental values.