基于GA_XGBoost模型的大学生科研能力预测问题研究

科学评价大学生科研创新能力对我国科研水平的提高具有重要意义.采用机器学习模型来预测大学生科研能力可以起到良好的效果,提出一种GAXGBoost模型来实现对大学生的科研能力预测.此模型是以Xgboost算法为基础,然后充分利用遗传算法的全局搜索能力自动搜索Xgboost最优超参数,避免了人为经验调参不准确的缺陷,最后采用精英选择策略以此确保每一轮都是最佳的进化结果.通过分析表明,所采用的GAXGBoost模型在大学生科研能力预测的结果中具有很高的精度,将此模型与Logistic Regression、Random Forest、SVM等模型进行对比,GAXGBoost模型的预测精度最高.     

Phosphoric-Acid Retention in High-Temperature Proton-Exchange Membranes

Great efforts have been conducted to develop high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell (HT-PEMFC) due to its features of enhanced electrocatalyst reactivity, simplified hydrothermal management system and high CO tolerance of catalysts, and remarkable progress has been achieved. However, the easy leaching of phosphoric acid (PA) from the membranes during operation limits its commercial scale-up in complicated environments. This concept here mainly focuses on the recent developments for mitigation of PA loss in PEMs. The probable mechanisms of PA loss are proposed. The approaches to improve PA retention for example via introduction of phosphonic acid by covalent bond, using ion-pairs interaction and siphoning effect, and blending with inorganic nanoparticles are described in detail. Among these strategies, the siphoning effect from the intrinsic microporous PEMs is the most efficient and enables the cell to operate flexibly within a broad temperature range. Therefore, this concept may provide new ideas for the scientists to retain PA, to improve the cell performance and expand the potential applications of PA doped PEMs at elevated humidity and wide temperature range.     

Comparison study of exchange-correlation functionals on prediction of ground states and structural properties

Despite significant advances in first-principles calculation methods, there is no single exchange-correlation functional which predicts the ground state of materials without an error yet. We investigated how accurately ground states of binary semiconductors are described using 16 exchange-correlation functionals (with or without van der Waals corrections). LDA, PBEsol, SCAN (with or without rVV10 correction), and PBE with D3 van der Waals correction (zero or Becke-Johnson damping) show good predicting power. The lattice constants of stable phases were slightly better described by SCAN, PBEsol, PBE+D3 (Becke-Johnson damping), and MS2. We also propose a set of functionals to double-check the stability of new materials based on the majority vote.     

Enhanced dielectric and nonohmic properties of SrTiO3-modified CaCu3Ti4O12 ceramics

Dielectric and nonohmic properties of CaCu₃Ti₄O₁₂ (CCTO) ceramics can be modified by addition of SrTiO₃ (STO) in different molar proportions which were fabricated by a modified sol-gel method. XRD results indicated that all modified ceramics showed mixed phase consisting of both CCTO and STO. SEM images and grain size distribution probability also presented the change of microstructure with the addition of STO. The dielectric loss of the CCTO/0.4STO ceramics sintered at 1000 °C can be lower than 0.02 in a wide frequency (1 kHz–10 kHz), especially at 1 kHz, the dielectric loss of this sample is as low as 0.012. Furthermore, excellent nonlinear I–V electrical characteristic (high breakdown voltage to 54.15 kV/cm for CCTO/0.4STO sintered at 1000 °C) was observed as well. All the results indicated that the addition of STO does improve the dielectric properties and nonohmic characteristics of CCTO ceramics dramatically.     

明代生命损失型地震的时空分布特征及成因分析

利用史料记录建立了明代生命损失型地震的数据库，构建生命损失型地震等级序列、10 a尺度上生命损失型地震的频次序列和县次序列，再现明代生命损失型地震的时空分布特征，探讨了生命损失型地震发生及导致人口死亡的时空差异原因。结果表明：（1）从明初到明末，生命损失型地震等级强度有逐渐扩大的趋势。（2）明代前期处于生命损失型地震发生较少的稳定时期；明代中后期处于生命损失型地震发生较多的波动时期。明代生命损失型地震发生频次存在明显的周期性变化特征。（3）生命损失型地震在明代大部分区域皆有分布。灾害重心随时间变化发生移动，由西南到中部再到华北、华东。（4）明代地震频繁的原因除地球本身因素外，太阳活动通过影响气候变化，进而间接影响地壳活动。气候寒冷与干旱和地震有较好的对应关系。明代后期生命损失型地震导致死亡人数大量增加，与明代经济发展，人口密度逐渐增长有关；不同地区生命损失型地震导致的死亡人数不同，且死亡人数与地震频发地区是否处于板块之间的活动构造带和人口分布密度有关。     

水流损失和热补偿共同作用对增强型地热系统(EGS)产能影响的研究

基于青海共和盆地-3705m地热田实测数据,结合流固耦合传热理论并运用Comsol软件,建立了离散型裂隙岩体流体传热模型。考虑水流损失和热补偿共同作用,模拟得到了开采过程中上、下岩层(盖层和垫层)为绝热不渗透、传热不渗透、渗透传热时,储层(上、下岩层和压裂层)温度场的变化特征,分析了产出流量、水流损失、产出温度、产热速率的变化规律。研究结果表明:采热过程中产出流量始终小于注入流量;产出流量增幅速率先增大后减小,最后趋于稳定,前3a产出流量增幅超过总增幅量的3/4;忽略水流损失,将高估产热速率,采热初期甚至达到考虑水流损失时产热速率的3倍以上;考虑水流损失,产热速率呈先快速上升再趋于稳定后逐渐下降的趋势,最优开采时间为3a^11a;研究上、下岩层对产出温度的影响,仅考虑传热,采热寿命延长5.43%,同时考虑渗流传热时,采热寿命延长2.71%;采热前9a,水流损失占主导作用,即流入上、下岩层水流损失对产热速率的影响高于热补偿效应,开采10a后,热补偿效应占主导作用;同时考虑水流损失和热补偿效应得到的产热速率变化规律与实际工程更为符合,建议选择低渗透能力的上、下岩层延长增强型地热系统(EGS)运行时间。     

Analytical formulas for complex permittivity of periodic composites. Estimation of gain and loss enhancement in active and passive composites

ABSTRACT

The asymptotic homogenization method is applied to complex dielectric periodic composites. An equivalence to coupled dielectric problems with real coefficients is shown. This is similar to a piezoelectric problem: an out-plane mechanical displacement and an in-plane electric potential establishing a correspondence principle. Closed-form formulas for the complex dielectric effective tensor in the case of a square array of circular inclusions embedded in a matrix are given. These formulas are written in terms of a real and symmetric matrix which facilitates the implementation of the computational scheme. We also get similar formulas for multilayered complex dielectric composites. The real closed-form formulas are advantageous for estimating gain and loss enhancement properties of active and passive composites in certain volume fraction intervals. Numerical computations are performed and the results are compared with other approaches showing the usefulness of the obtained formulas. This may be of interest in the context of metamaterials.     

基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。