一种复合材料梁架结构的强度可靠性分析

为解决分析复合材料框架式结构的强度可靠性问题 ,应用最小势能原理 ,设计推导了一种具有复杂剖面形状 ,考虑横向剪切 ,承受横向集中及分布载荷作用的层合梁单元。根据一具体水平梁架的实际情况 ,结合有限元处理程序中组装总体刚度矩阵的特点 ,较好地实现了层合梁之间的不完全简支连接。分析系统强度可靠性时 ,通过可调控的运行方式 ,有效解决了挑选失效模式与离散单元数目之间的关系 ,使系统可靠性的计算更合理     

联保贷款中的策略性违约规避机制设计

针对联保贷款的策略性违约问题,通过对其产生原因的分析以及对现有文献中解决措施的探讨,设计了一个弹性联保贷款合约。该合约的特点在于,随着企业愿意承担的连带责任的增加,企业可获得的期望收益也随之增加,旨在从正面激励企业主动为同伴承担还款责任,达到规避策略性违约的目的。通过数值分析验证了该弹性合约的特性以及适用范围。并进一步在两企业模式基础上进行拓展,讨论了多于两企业的情况下该弹性合约的适用条件。     

Continuous-time portfolio selection with liability: Mean–variance model and stochastic LQ approach

In this paper we formulate a continuous-time mean–variance portfolio selection model with multiple risky assets and one liability in an incomplete market. The risky assets’ prices are governed by geometric Brownian motions while the liability evolves according to a Brownian motion with drift. The correlations between the risky assets and the liability are considered. The objective is to maximize the expected terminal wealth while minimizing the variance of the terminal wealth. We derive explicitly the optimal dynamic strategy and the mean–variance efficient frontier in closed forms by using the general stochastic linear-quadratic (LQ) control technique. Several special cases are discussed and a numerical example is also given.     

Asset and liability modelling for participating policies with guarantees

We study the problem of asset and liability management of participating insurance policies with guarantees. We develop a scenario optimization model for integrative asset and liability management, analyze the tradeoffs in structuring such policies, and study alternative choices in funding them. The nonlinearly constrained optimization model can be linearized through closed form solutions of the dynamic equations. Thus large-scale problems are solved with standard methods. We report on an empirical analysis of policies offered by Italian insurers. The optimized model results are in general agreement with current industry practices. However, some inefficiencies are identified and potential improvements are highlighted.     

基于Heston随机波动率模型和风险偏好视角的资产负债管理

本文研究基于Heston随机波动率模型的资产负债管理问题。假设金融市场由一个无风险资产和一个风险资产构成,投资者的目标是最大化其终端财富的期望效用。应用随机控制方法,得到了该问题最优资产配置策略的解析表达式和相应值函数的解析解,通过数值算例分析了Heston模型主要参数以及债务对最优资产配置策略的影响。结果表明:配置到风险资产的比例对Heston模型中的参数非常敏感;为了对冲债务风险,负债的引入使得配置到风险资产的比例比无负债情形下的高;在风险厌恶系数变大时,无论投资者是否有负债,其投资到风险资产的比例则越来越低。     

Heston随机波动率模型下带负债的投资组合博弈

本文研究了Heston随机波动模型下两个投资人之间的随机微分投资组合博弈问题。假设金融市场上存在价格过程服从常微分方程的无风险资产和价格过程服从Heston随机波动率模型的风险资产。该博弈问题被构造成两个效用最大化问题,每个投资者的目标是最大化终止时刻个人财富与竞争对手财富差的效用。首先,我们应用动态规划原理,得出了相应值函数所满足的HJB方程。然后,得到了在幂期望效用框架下非零和博弈的均衡投资策略和值函数的显式表达。最后,借助数值模拟,分析了模型中的参数对均衡投资策略和值函数的影响,从而为资产负债管理提供一定的理论指导。     

The AURORA Financial Management System: Model and Parallel Implementation Design

The AURORA financial management system under development at the University of Vienna is a modular decision support tool for portfolio and asset–liability management. It is based on a multivariate Markovian birth-and-death factor model for the economic environment, a pricing model for the financial instruments and an objective function which is flexible enough to express risk aversion.The core of the system is a large scale linear or convex program, which due to its size and structure is well suited for parallel optimization methods.As the system is still at an early stage of development, the results are preliminary in nature. Only a few types of financial instruments are handled and just two types of objectives are considered. The parallel optimization modules are still in the development phase.     

A stochastic programming model using an endogenously determined worst case risk measure for dynamic asset allocation

We present a new approach to asset allocation with transaction costs. A multiperiod stochastic linear programming model is developed where the risk is based on the worst case payoff that is endogenously determined by the model that balances expected return and risk. Utilizing portfolio protection and dynamic hedging, an investment portfolio similar to an option-like payoff structure on the initial investment portfolio is characterized. The relative changes in the expected terminal wealth, worst case payoff, and risk aversion, are studied theoretically and illustrated using a numerical example. This model dominates a static mean-variance model when the optimal portfolios are evaluated by the Sharpe ratio. Received: August 15, 1999 / Accepted: October 1, 2000?Published online December 15, 2000     

机关事业单位基本养老保险的精算应计负债

通过养老金测算的平行四边形框架建立养老保险的精算模型应计负债,测算机关事业单位基本养老保险在2015年初的精算应计负债.提高退休年龄、利率、缴费率和工资增长率都会降低精算应计负债,退休年龄的影响非常强,利率的影响也很强.提高养老金增长率、工龄工资增长率和同年度养老金随年龄增长率都会增加精算应计负债,养老金增长率的影响很强.为控制机关事业单位基本养老保险精算应计负债,可适时适度提高退休年龄,创造条件提高投资收益率,通过全社会创新提高社会生产力来提高工资增长率,与此同时可降低缴费率.     

Polynomial diffusion models for life insurance liabilities

In this paper we study the pricing and hedging problem of a portfolio of life insurance products under the benchmark approach, where the reference market is modelled as driven by a state variable following a polynomial diffusion on a compact state space. Such a model can be used to guarantee not only the positivity of the OIS short rate and the mortality intensity, but also the possibility of approximating both pricing formula and hedging strategy of a large class of life insurance products by explicit formulas.