中国出境旅游的外交效应

2000年以来，中国出境旅游高增长、高消费，影响力不断增大，成为国家外交战略的重要内容，外交效应逐渐显现。通过辨析中国出境旅游外交效应的概念、表现形式和结果，基于10个中国主要出境目的国的旅游互动数据，采用DIF-GMM计量经济模型，实证检验了中国出境旅游外交效应。结果表明，中国通过有序推进ADS协议、加强经济援助、举办“旅游年”活动、实施旅游“制裁”，并积极参与国际制度建设等旅游外交行为，促进了与世界各国的友好交往，维护了自身核心利益，提升了外交软实力和国际影响力。国际旅游反作用于国际关系，对国际关系具有显著的正向促进作用，不仅是国际关系的结果，而且是其重要动因之一。中国出境旅游与政治、经济、社会、文化等联动，多方面提升了中国的国际影响力。     

生产率差异与企业对外直接投资进入模式选择

基于企业异质性视角,借鉴演化博弈理论探究企业通过OFDI“走出去”时的跨国并购方和标的方在全要素生产率上的差异对企业OFDI进入策略选择的影响机制。利用Hotelling模型构造资本密集型企业与劳动密集型企业OFDI进入策略选择博弈模型,讨论两类企业OFDI进入方式决策在并购双方生产率差异变化之下的变迁机理。研究发现:当并购方和被并购方生产率差异较小时,市场达到两类企业都倾向于跨国并购策略的演化稳定状态;当并购双方生产率差异较大时,企业的生产要素密集度及其结构对其OFDI进入模式决策具有重要的作用,知识或技术密集度较高的资本密集型企业与综合实力强势的部分劳动密集型企业采取跨国并购战略,而另一部分劳动密集型企业选择绿地新建方式进入国际市场。即企业OFDI进入策略选择因其所属的行业生产要素密集度及其结构不同而具有差异性。研究结论在一定程度上弥补了现有研究的不足,为以后的研究工作提供一定的理论参考。     

Optimal consumption and investment problem with random horizon in a BMAP model

In this paper, we consider the consumption and investment problem with random horizon in a Batch Markov Arrival Process (BMAP) model. The investor invests her wealth in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset and a risky asset. The price processes of the riskless asset and the risky asset are modulated by a continuous-time Markov chain, which is the phase process of a BMAP. The possible consumption or investment are restricted to a sequence of random discrete time points which are determined by the same BMAP. The investor has only consumption opportunities at some of these random time points, has both consumption and investment opportunities at some other random time points, and can do nothing at the remaining random time points. The object of the investor is to select the consumption–investment strategy that maximizes the expected total discounted utility. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the consumption–investment opportunity and the economic state on the value functions and consumption–investment strategies. The general solution and the exact solution under the assumption that the consumption and the terminal wealth are evaluated by the power utility are obtained. Finally, a numerical example is presented.     

带交易费用的最优投资和比例再保险

研究了保险公司的最优投资和再保险问题.保险公司的盈余通过跳-扩散风险模型来模拟,可以把盈余的一部分投资到金融市场,金融市场由一个无风险资产和n个风险资产组成,并且保险公司还可以购买比例再保险;在买卖风险资产时,考虑了交易费用.通过随机控制的理论,获得了最优策略和值函数的显示解.     

Optimal investment with transaction costs based on exponential utility function: a parabolic double obstacle problem

This paper concerns optimal investment problem with proportional transaction costs and finite time horizon based on exponential utility function. Using a partial differential equation approach, we reveal that the problem is equivalent to a parabolic double obstacle problem involving two free boundaries that correspond to the optimal buying and selling policies. Numerical examples are obtained by the binomial method.     

科技保险中项目投资损失保险投保比例优化决策

针对我国科技保险第二批推行险种--项目投资损失保险,以科技企业为研究主体,综合考虑其期望利润和科技风险(方差),构建了投保比例模型.在对武汉市迪源光电科技有限公司投保科技保险的具体案例中,运用线性不等式组的旋转算法进行求解,计算出企业在项目组合投资中如何优化各项投保比例,使其以最小的风险承担得到最大的期望利润.     

Detecting and Analyzing Politically-Themed Stocks Using Text Mining Techniques and Transfer Entropy—Focus on the Republic of Korea’s Case

Politically-themed stocks mainly refer to stocks that benefit from the policies of politicians. This study gave the empirical analysis of the politically-themed stocks in the Republic of Korea and constructed politically-themed stock networks based on the Republic of Korea’s politically-themed stocks, derived mainly from politicians. To select politically-themed stocks, we calculated the daily politician sentiment index (PSI), which means politicians’ daily reputation using politicians’ search volume data and sentiment analysis results from politician-related text data. Additionally, we selected politically-themed stock candidates from politician-related search volume data. To measure causal relationships, we adopted entropy-based measures. We determined politically-themed stocks based on causal relationships from the rates of change of the PSI to their abnormal returns. To illustrate causal relationships between politically-themed stocks, we constructed politically-themed stock networks based on causal relationships using entropy-based approaches. Moreover, we experimented using politically-themed stocks in real-world situations from the schematized networks, focusing on politically-themed stock networks’ dynamic changes. We verified that the investment strategy using the PSI and politically-themed stocks that we selected could benchmark the main stock market indices such as the KOSPI and KOSDAQ around political events.     

On the poisson output of queueing systems with dependent service times

In this paper a method is stated to conclude that the output of given queueing system is POISSON from the steady-state probabilities and from the behavior of the queueing system at jump epochs, i.e. at epochs when the system state can be changed. The corresponding statement for queueing systems described by Markov processes with denumber-able state space will be generalized to systems which can have arbitrary service time distributions if the steady-state probabilities are insensitive with respect to these distributions.     

Estimation of investment project profitability in the modified Cantor-Lipman model

The profitability of investment projects in the modified Cantor-Lipman model is analyzed. The possibility of making lower estimates of the investment project profitability by searching for periodic trajectories is studied. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a trajectory with the period 2 are derived. The sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of a certain trajectory with the period 2 are derived in the form of explicit requirements on the investment project structure.