Pathwise superhedging for time-dependent barrier options on càdlàg paths—Finite or infinite tradeable European,One-Touch,lookback or forward starting options

We establish pathwise duality using simple predictable trading strategies for the robust hedging problem associated with a barrier option whose payoff depends on the terminal level and the infimum of a càdlàg strictly positive stock price process, given tradeable European options at all strikes at a single maturity. The result allows for a significant dimension reduction in the computation of the superhedging cost, via an alternate lower-dimensional formulation of the primal problem as a convex optimization problem, which is qualitatively similar to the duality which was formally sketched using linear programming arguments in Duembgen and Rogers [10] for the case where we only consider continuous sample paths. The proof exploits a simplification of a classical result by Rogers (1993) which characterizes the attainable joint laws for the supremum and the drawdown of a uniformly integrable martingale (not necessarily continuous), combined with classical convex duality results from Rockefellar (1974) using paired spaces with compatible locally convex topologies and the Hahn–Banach theorem. We later adapt this result to include additional tradeable One-Touch options using the Kertz and Rösler (1990) condition. We also compute the superhedging cost when in the more realistic situation where there is only finite tradeable European options; for this case we obtain the full duality in the sense of quantile hedging as in Soner (2015), where the superhedge works with probability $1?\epsilon$ where $\epsilon$ can be arbitrarily small), and we obtain an upper bound for the true pathwise superhedging cost. In Section 5, we extend our analysis to include time-dependent barrier options using martingale coupling arguments, where we now have tradeable European options at both maturities at all strikes and tradeable forward starting options at all strikes. This set up is designed to approximate the more realistic situation where we have a finite number of tradeable Europeans at both maturities plus a finite number of tradeable forward starting options.¹     

Option Pricing and Hedging under a Markov Switching Lévy Process Model

In this paper,we consider a Markov switching Lévy process model in which the underlying risky assets are driven by the stochastic exponential of Markov switching Lévy process and then apply the model to option pricing and hedging.In this model,the market interest rate,the volatility of the underlying risky assets and the N-state compensator,depend on unobservable states of the economy which are modeled by a continuous-time Hidden Markov process.We use the MEMM(minimal entropy martingale measure) as the equivalent martingale measure.The option price using this model is obtained by the Fourier transform method.We obtain a closed-form solution for the hedge ratio by applying the local risk minimizing hedging.     

Multi-population mortality models: A factor copula approach

Modeling mortality co-movements for multiple populations have significant implications for mortality/longevity risk management. A few two-population mortality models have been proposed to date. They are typically based on the assumption that the forecasted mortality experiences of two or more related populations converge in the long run. This assumption might be justified by the long-term mortality co-integration and thus be applicable to longevity risk modeling. However, it seems too strong to model the short-term mortality dependence. In this paper, we propose a two-stage procedure based on the time series analysis and a factor copula approach to model mortality dependence for multiple populations. In the first stage, we filter the mortality dynamics of each population using an ARMA–GARCH process with heavy-tailed innovations. In the second stage, we model the residual risk using a one-factor copula model that is widely applicable to high dimension data and very flexible in terms of model specification. We then illustrate how to use our mortality model and the maximum entropy approach for mortality risk pricing and hedging. Our model generates par spreads that are very close to the actual spreads of the Vita III mortality bond. We also propose a longevity trend bond and demonstrate how to use this bond to hedge residual longevity risk of an insurer with both annuity and life books of business.     

Mean-Variance Hedging Under Multiple Defaults Risk

We solve a mean-variance hedging problem in an incomplete market where multiple defaults can occur. For this purpose, we use a default-density modeling approach. The global market information is formulated as a progressive enlargement of a default-free Brownian filtration, and the dependence of the default times is modelled using a conditional density hypothesis. We prove the quadratic form of each value process between consecutive default times and recursively solve systems of coupled quadratic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We demonstrate the existence of these solutions using BSDE techniques. Then, using a verification theorem, we prove that the solutions of each subcontrol problem are related to the solution of our global mean-variance hedging problem. As a byproduct, we obtain an explicit formula for the optimal trading strategy. Finally, we illustrate our results for certain specific cases and for a multiple defaults case in particular.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis><Superscript>2</Superscript>-approximating Pricing under Restricted Information

We consider the mean-variance hedging problem under partial information in the case where the flow of observable events does not contain the full information on the underlying asset price process. We introduce a certain type martingale equation and characterize the optimal strategy in terms of the solution of this equation. We give relations between this equation and backward stochastic differential equations for the value process of the problem. This work was supported by Georgian National Science Foundation grant STO07/3-172.     

考虑结算风险的套期保值研究

期货市场的风险转移功能主要通过套期保值策略来实现,期货市场套期保值的关键问题是套期保值比率的确定。现有套期保值研究侧重于规避价格风险,忽略了期货市场另一个重要的风险因素-结算风险。本文通过建立考虑结算风险的期货套期保值决策模型,有效地平衡了套期保值过程中的价格风险与结算风险。具体特色一是将套保者的结算风险厌恶态度直接反映到套期比的计算中,体现了结算风险对套期保值决策的影响;二是在一定条件下,本模型的套期比趋近于最小方差套期比;三是利用ARMA时间序列方法预测期货与现货的价格走势,有效地反映了期货价格一阶平稳和季节性变化规律,使估计的套期比更加精确可靠。     

General financial market model defined by a liquidation value process

Financial market models defined by a liquidation value process generalize the conic models of Schachermayer and Kabanov where the transaction costs are proportional to the exchanged volumes of traded assets. The solvency set of all portfolio positions that can be liquidated without any debt is not necessary convex, e.g. in presence of proportional transaction costs and fixed costs. Therefore, the classical duality principle based on the Hahn–Banach separation theorem is not appropriate to characterize the prices super hedging a contingent claim. Using an alternative method based on the concepts of essential supremum and maximum, we provide a characterization of European and American contingent claim prices under the absence of arbitrage opportunity of the second kind.     

Analysis of VIX Markets with a Time-Spread Portfolio

This paper explores the relationship between option markets for the S&P500 (SPX) and Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE’s Volatility Index (VIX). Results are obtained by using the so-called time-spread portfolio to replicate a future contract on the squared VIX. The time-spread portfolio is interesting because it provides a model-free link between derivative prices for SPX and VIX. Time spreads can be computed from SPX put options with different maturities, which results in a term structure for squared volatility. This term structure can be compared to the VIX-squared term structure that is backed-out from VIX call options. The time-spread portfolio is also used to measure volatility-of-volatility (vol-of-vol) and the volatility leverage effect. There may emerge small differences in these measurements, depending on whether time spreads are computed with options on SPX or options on VIX. A study of 2012 daily options data shows that vol-of-vol estimates utilizing SPX data will reflect the volatility leverage effect, whereas estimates that exclusively utilize VIX options will predominantly reflect the premia in the VIX-future term structure.     

On the optimal product mix in life insurance companies using conditional value at risk

This paper proposes a Conditional Value-at-Risk Minimization (CVaRM) approach to optimize an insurer’s product mix. By incorporating the natural hedging strategy of Cox and Lin (2007) and the two-factor stochastic mortality model of Cairns et al. (2006b), we calculate an optimize product mix for insurance companies to hedge against the systematic mortality risk under parameter uncertainty. To reflect the importance of required profit, we further integrate the premium loading of systematic risk. We compare the hedging results to those using the duration match method of Wang et al. (forthcoming), and show that the proposed CVaRM approach has a narrower quantile of loss distribution after hedging—thereby effectively reducing systematic mortality risk for life insurance companies.