Ergodic stationary distribution and practical application of a hybrid stochastic cholera transmission model with waning vaccine-induced immunity under nonlinear regime switching

Considering the effect of stochasticity including white noise and colored noise, this paper aims to study a hybrid stochastic cholera epidemic model with waning vaccine-induced immunity and nonlinear telegraph perturbations. First, we derive a critical value ${?}_0^C$ related to the basic reproduction number ${?}_0$ of the deterministic model. The key aim of this paper is to generalize the θ-stochastic criterion method proposed by the recent work (Han et al. in Chaos Solit Fract 140:110238, 2020) to eliminate nonlinear telegraph perturbations. Next, via constructing several θ-stochastic Lyapunov functions and using the generalized method, we further prove that the stochastic model have a unique ergodic stationary distribution under ${?}_0^C>1$. Results show that the prevention and control of cholera epidemic depend on low transmission rate and small telegraph perturbations. Finally, the corresponding numerical simulations are performed to illustrate our analytical results and a practical application on the Somalia cholera outbreak is shown at the end of this paper.     

An improved generalized predictive control algorithm based on the difference equation CARIMA model for the SISO system with known strong interference

ABSTRACT

The single input single output (SISO) system with known strong interference is widely used in various occasions. Due to its strong interference, the control accuracy is hard to guarantee. To solve this problem, an improved generalized predictive control (IGPC) algorithm is developed. The IGPC firstly builds the difference equation CARIMA (Controlled Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average) model of the SISO system and then treats the system as a two input single output (TISO) system and calculates its predictive vector, then transforms it into a SISO system and uses the TISO system predictive vector to calculate the SISO system control increment. A new parameter called phase coefficient is added to inhibit the control lag. Simulations are performed to make the comparison among the traditional GPC, PID control, velocity synchronization control (VSC), fuzzy adaptive PID control (FAPID), model-based robust PID control (BPID) and the IGPC. Results show that IGPC has best performance compared to the others. Finally, experiments are developed which proved that the IGPC algorithm has a higher accuracy in the SISO system with known strong interference than that of VSC.     

含时滞反馈与涨落质量的记忆阻尼系统的随机共振

针对具有记忆效应的欠阻尼系统, 存在时滞反馈与涨落质量, 本文主要研究了其输出稳态响应振幅的随机共振效应. 首先通过引入新变量和运用小时滞近似展开理论, 将具有非马尔科夫特性的原系统转化为等价的两维马尔科夫线性系统, 再利用Shapiro-Loginov公式和Laplace变换获得了系统响应的一阶稳态矩和稳态响应振幅的解析表达式. 结果表明: 当系统参数满足Routh-Hurwitz稳定条件时, 稳态响应振幅随质量涨落噪声强度、周期驱动信号频率以及时滞的变化均存在随机共振现象, 其中随机多共振现象也被观察到. 在适当范围内, 通过控制时滞反馈, 系统的随机共振效应随着时滞的增大而增强, 而较长的记忆时间及增大阻尼参数均对共振行为呈现抑制作用.有效调控时滞反馈与记忆效应的变化关系将有助于增强系统对周期驱动信号的响应强度. 最后, 通过数值模拟计算验证了理论结果的有效性.