企业雇佣下残疾人就业行为研究——基于就业促进政策的演化博弈分析

融合就业是残疾人可持续发展的关键途径。基于演化博弈理论和残疾人就业促进政策,建立残疾人与用人单位(企业)行为交互过程的动态演化模型,用数值实验展示了初始条件改变和决策变量不同取值对系统演化结果的影响。研究发现,残疾人就业行为路径演化系统收敛于良好状态和“锁定”状态两种模式;调控模型中的参数收敛于不同模式的概率发生显著变化或变化不明显,揭示了现实中残疾人就业治理效果不理想的深层次原因;通过提高残疾人的工资待遇、心理收益、为企业创造的价值,减少残疾人的社会补助与就业付出的人力和社会资本,增加残疾人就业法定比例、企业雇佣残疾人的声誉收益、增值税退税优惠(企业符合退税条件)与雇佣残疾人数量,减少企业支持残疾人的就业投入等均能使系统演化到良好状态的概率增加。这为制定灵活有效的残疾人就业制度、政策与措施提供了较大的操作空间,多元主体协同治理,利益共享,良性互动,以跳出不良“锁定”状态,实现残疾人就业行为良序发展,破解就业难题。     

Risk-sensitive finite-horizon piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes

This paper deals with risk-sensitive piecewise deterministic Markov decision processes, where the expected exponential utility of a finite-horizon reward is to be maximized. Both the transition rates and reward functions are allowed to be unbounded. Feynman–Kac’s formula is developed in our setup, using which along with an approximation technique, we establish the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and the existence of risk-sensitive optimal policies under suitable conditions.     

Dynamic repositioning for vehicle sharing with setup costs

This study considers a multi-period two-region repositioning problem with setup repositioning costs involved for vehicle sharing systems. We find that incorporating such costs can influence the total cost significantly and complicate the structure of the optimal policy. Moreover, we manage to partially characterize the optimal policy, and then develop an easy-to-implement heuristic policy. The performance of the heuristic policy and the influence of setup repositioning costs on policies are assessed numerically.     

胜利断块油藏细分注水技术界限研究

老油田进入特高含水期后,剩余油分布更加零散,各种地质因素也因长期注水开发而发生了一定的改变.此时稳油控水难度进一步加大,为了进一步挖掘剩余油,控制含水上升速度、减缓产量递减,必须对注水井采取进一步的细分调整.基于水湿油藏注水井注水层段吸水效果,从注入水受力分析入手,运用达西定律推导出了水驱油藏水驱油全过程中的单位体积注入水沿竖直、地层两个方向运移的渗流速度公式,明晰了水驱油藏注水层段不同开发阶段砂岩吸水机理.研究结果表明,水驱油藏细分注水效果与岩石绝对渗透率、水相相对渗透率、注入水黏度、水动力压力梯度、注水井启动压力梯度、含水饱和度、地层倾角、油水密度差等参数有关.结合胜利油田断块油藏地质特征及细分注水工艺要求,制定了一套适合胜利油田不同断块区的细分注水技术政策界限:层段内渗透率变异系数小于0.3,砂岩条带宽度极比小于2.5,且东辛油区断块油藏层段内砂岩厚度小于6m,小层数小于4个;现河油区断块油藏层段内砂岩厚度小于5m,小层数小于5个;临盘油区断块油藏层段内砂岩厚度小于6m,小层数小于6个.矿场试验证实,该细分注水技术政策界限是合理、实用的,其为胜利断块油藏注上水、注够水、注好水,实现多层断块油藏的高效开发提供了技术保障,对类似油藏细分注水技术界限研究具有一定的借鉴意义.     

基于语义的软件服务故障自动诊断模型

模仿学习是机器人仿生机制研究的主要内容之一,即通过观察、理解、学习、模仿示教行为实现机器人的仿生特性。基于高斯过程分别表达采集离散示教信号所构成的示教轨迹和含有未知参数策略的模仿轨迹,构建模仿学习方法框架,将概率模型匹配引入到模仿学习中,以KL散度为代价函数比较两种轨迹的概率分布,运用梯度下降法寻求使KL散度最小的最优模仿控制策略,将策略应用于模仿机器人以完成与示教相同的模仿任务。以关节型机器人的机械臂摆动行为模仿为学习任务进行仿真,结果表明基于概率轨迹匹配的模仿学习方法能够实现机械臂摆动行为模仿,学习过程较传统方法简易且学习效果较好。     

A computational study on fill rate expressions for single-stage periodic review under normal demand and constant lead time

This paper reviews fill rate expressions for a single stage periodic review inventory system under normal demand and constant lead time, discusses the relationship among all expressions in the literature, and evaluates their robustness and accuracy. Monte Carlo simulation is used to numerically compare all expressions. We present conditions under which some expressions produce higher values than others.     

分权体制下地方政府财政支出的环境效应研究

运用2000~2015年31个省级行政单位的数据,构建固定效应面板模型,实证研究分权体制下地方政府支出的环境效应.以"工业三废"作为环境质量衡量指标,考虑到中国式财政分权对地方财政支出的影响,引入财政分权度与财政支出规模的交叉项进行研究.研究结果显示:财政支出对环境质量的影响具有不确定性,财政分权与"工业三废"存在正相关关系,且通过财政支出规模间接的对"工业三废"产生负向影响.分权体制下政府财政支出规模对环境质量的影响存在区域差异,财政分权通过财政支出规模对高污染区域的"工业三废"减排作用最大,中度污染区域次之,轻度污染区域最小.     

An adaptive O(log n)‐optimal policy for the online selection of a monotone subsequence from a random sample

Given a sequence of n independent random variables with common continuous distribution, we propose a simple adaptive online policy that selects a monotone increasing subsequence. We show that the expected number of monotone increasing selections made by such a policy is within of optimal. Our construction provides a direct and natural way for proving the ‐optimality gap. An earlier proof of the same result made crucial use of a key inequality of Bruss and Delbaen [5] and of de‐Poissonization.     

Asymptotically optimal dividend policy for regime-switching compound Poisson models

This work develops asymptotically optimal dividend policies to maximize the expected present value of dividends until ruin.Compound Poisson processes with regime switching are used to model the surplus and the switching（a continuous-time controlled Markov chain） represents random environment and other economic conditions.Assuming the switching to be fast varying together with suitable conditions,it is shown that the system has a limit that is an average with respect to the invariant measure of a related Markov chain.Under simple conditions,the optimal policy of the limit dividend strategy is a threshold policy.Using the optimal policy of the limit system as a guide,feedback control for the original surplus is then developed.It is demonstrated that the constructed dividend policy is asymptotically optimal.