基于GA_XGBoost模型的大学生科研能力预测问题研究

科学评价大学生科研创新能力对我国科研水平的提高具有重要意义.采用机器学习模型来预测大学生科研能力可以起到良好的效果,提出一种GAXGBoost模型来实现对大学生的科研能力预测.此模型是以Xgboost算法为基础,然后充分利用遗传算法的全局搜索能力自动搜索Xgboost最优超参数,避免了人为经验调参不准确的缺陷,最后采用精英选择策略以此确保每一轮都是最佳的进化结果.通过分析表明,所采用的GAXGBoost模型在大学生科研能力预测的结果中具有很高的精度,将此模型与Logistic Regression、Random Forest、SVM等模型进行对比,GAXGBoost模型的预测精度最高.     

Comparison study of exchange-correlation functionals on prediction of ground states and structural properties

Despite significant advances in first-principles calculation methods, there is no single exchange-correlation functional which predicts the ground state of materials without an error yet. We investigated how accurately ground states of binary semiconductors are described using 16 exchange-correlation functionals (with or without van der Waals corrections). LDA, PBEsol, SCAN (with or without rVV10 correction), and PBE with D3 van der Waals correction (zero or Becke-Johnson damping) show good predicting power. The lattice constants of stable phases were slightly better described by SCAN, PBEsol, PBE+D3 (Becke-Johnson damping), and MS2. We also propose a set of functionals to double-check the stability of new materials based on the majority vote.     

广西经济增长、金融发展与城乡收入差距的实证研究

探讨了经济增长及金融发展与城乡收入差距之间互动影响,刻画了三者间的逻辑关系,并基于广西1990-2017年的统计数据,运用状态空间模型及卡尔曼滤波算法对三者间动态关系进行了实证分析.结果显示:经济增长对城乡收入差距呈现倒U型曲线形态,而金融发展则显示出具有不断缩小城乡收入差距的趋势.     

基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。     

Information Network Modeling for U.S. Banking Systemic Risk

In this work we investigate whether information theory measures like mutual information and transfer entropy, extracted from a bank network, Granger cause financial stress indexes like LIBOR-OIS (London Interbank Offered Rate-Overnight Index Swap) spread, STLFSI (St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index) and USD/CHF (USA Dollar/Swiss Franc) exchange rate. The information theory measures are extracted from a Gaussian Graphical Model constructed from daily stock time series of the top 74 listed US banks. The graphical model is calculated with a recently developed algorithm (LoGo) which provides very fast inference model that allows us to update the graphical model each market day. We therefore can generate daily time series of mutual information and transfer entropy for each bank of the network. The Granger causality between the bank related measures and the financial stress indexes is investigated with both standard Granger-causality and Partial Granger-causality conditioned on control measures representative of the general economy conditions.     

Identifying aspirin polymorphs from combined DFT-based crystal structure prediction and solid-state NMR

A combined experimental and computational approach was used to distinguish between different polymorphs of the pharmaceutical drug aspirin. This method involves the use of ab initio random structure searching (AIRSS), a density functional theory (DFT)-based crystal structure prediction method for the high-accuracy prediction of polymorphic structures, with DFT calculations of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) parameters and solid-state NMR experiments at natural abundance. AIRSS was used to predict the crystal structures of form-I and form-II of aspirin. The root-mean-square deviation between experimental and calculated ¹H chemical shifts was used to identify form-I as the polymorph present in the experimental sample, the selection being successful despite the large similarities between the molecular environments in the crystals of the two polymorphs.     

A Dynamic Anomaly Detection Approach Based on Permutation Entropy for Predicting Aging-Related Failures

Software aging is a phenomenon referring to the performance degradation of a long-running software system. This phenomenon is an accumulative process during execution, which will gradually lead the system from a normal state to a failure-prone state. It is a crucial challenge for system reliability to predict the Aging-Related Failures (ARFs) accurately. In this paper, permutation entropy (PE) is modified to Multidimensional Multi-scale Permutation Entropy (MMPE) as a novel aging indicator to detect performance anomalies, since MMPE is sensitive to dynamic state changes. An experiment is set on the distributed database system Voldemort, and MMPE is calculated based on the collected performance metrics during execution. Finally, based on MMPE, a failure prediction model using the machine learning method to reveal the anomalies is presented, which can predict failures with high accuracy.     

(Q)SAR modelling of nanomaterial toxicity: A critical review

There is increasing recognition that some nanomaterials may pose a risk to human health and the environment. Moreover, the industrial use of the novel engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) increases at a higher rate than data generation for hazard assessment; consequently, many of them remain untested. The large number of nanomaterials and their variants (e.g., different sizes and coatings) requiring testing and the ethical pressure towards nonanimal testing means that in a first instance, expensive animal bioassays are precluded, and the use of (quantitative) structure–activity relationships ((Q)SARs) models as an alternative source of (screening) hazard information should be explored. (Q)SAR modelling can be applied to contribute towards filling important knowledge gaps by making best use of existing data, prioritizing the physicochemical parameters driving toxicity, and providing practical solutions for the risk assessment problems caused by the diversity of ENMs. This paper covers the core components required for successful application of (Q)SAR methods to ENM toxicity prediction, summarizes the published nano-(Q)SAR studies, and outlines the challenges ahead for nano-(Q)SAR modelling. It provides a critical review of (1) the present availability of ENM characterization/toxicity data, (2) the characterization of nanostructures that meet the requirements for (Q)SAR analysis, (3) published nano-(Q)SAR studies and their limitations, (4) in silico tools for (Q)SAR screening of nanotoxicity, and (5) prospective directions for the development of nano-(Q)SAR models.     

基于神经网络的间隙机构运动副磨损预测

应用BP神经网络建立了磨损率与接触应力、滑动速度和材料硬度之间的非线性关系模型,并对该网络模型进行了验证和测试,结果表明,训练良好的神经网络模型能够准确反映样本所蕴含的内在磨损规律,且具有较好的预测效果。基于非线性弹簧阻尼模型和修正的Coulomb摩擦力模型对含间隙曲柄滑块机构进行数值仿真分析,获得间隙机构运动副的接触应力和相对滑动速度,利用训练好的神经网络磨损模型对轴套的磨损进行迭代磨损预测分析,发现随着曲柄转数的增加,轴套表面一些特定位置处的磨损越来越严重,最终导致轴套表面出现非均匀磨损现象,其原因是间隙机构运转过程在一些特定位置处产生了较大接触应力和碰撞力。     

Fatigue Behavior of Composite Sandwich Panels Under Three Point Bending Load

In this paper, the bending fatigue tests of honeycomb sandwich panels are carried out by using an improved three-point bending test fixture, and the S-N curves at different stress ratios are obtained. Through the records of fatigue damage in the experiment, the failure mode of the honeycomb sandwich panels and the source of fatigue damage are determined. At the same time, through the calculation of the shear stress distribution on the honeycomb wall, the reasons for the difference in the failure morphology of the L-direction and W-direction sandwich panels are clarified. Besides, a life prediction method is proposed and its effectiveness in predicting the fatigue life of sandwich panels has been verified.