Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Since 1990:Some Personal Reflections

Abstract I reflect upon the development of nonlinear time series analysis since 1990 by focusing on five majorareas of development. These areas include the interface between nonlinear time series analysis and chaos,thenonparametric/semiparametric approach,nonlinear state space modelling,financial time series and nonlinearmodelling of panels of time series.     

金融时间序列分析与建模

介绍了金融时间序列分析与建模的主要理论、方法,着重论述了近20多年发展起来的非平稳时间序列的建模方法及工具,指出进一步的研究方向.最后,对上证综合指数这一金融时间序列进行了实证分析.     

金融发展对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文将金融发展作为一个独立解释变量引入,构造经济增长的面板数据模型,运用面板数据以1994年为分界点分两阶段实证分析了全国及东、中、西部地区1985~2003年金融发展对经济增长的影响,以及东、中、西部地区影响的差异性,模型较好地拟合了数据。实证分析表明,各地区之间金融发展的不平衡性可以部分解释其经济增长的差异性。     

围绕财经特色主题加强《高等代数》精品课程建设

我校精品课程《高等代数》建设的思路是,围绕财经特色主题,坚持以高等代数理论为基础,以经济、管理类的专业为依托,以数学实验室为训练基地,将数学建模的思想融入到《高等代数》的教学活动中.这种教学模式的改变不仅有利于学生的培养,而且有助于培养出一支有较高水平的师资队伍.使我们的《高等代数》课程真正成为高水平、高质量的示范性课程.     

论自我知识的构成主义观点

构成主义观点致力于在自然主义的心灵图景中解释自我知识的特殊性与第一人称权威。为此,它主张高阶信念和一阶态度不是相互独立的,而是有着构成性的关系。概念论解释试图从认识主体的概念能力,特别是批判性推理的能力来作出论证。默认权威观点则诉诸日常话语实践的“语法”要求,主张认识主体对自我的态度拥有先天合理的、又可由证据挫败的确信。通过引入“以言行事”的思路,构成主义有希望确立起合理、审慎、有节制的第一人称权威观点。     

A deductive approach to the solution of the problem of optimal pairs trading from the viewpoint of stochastic control with time‐dependent parameters

In a fairly recent paper (2008 American Control Conference, June 11‐13, 1035‐1039), the problem of dealing with trading in optimal pairs was treated from the viewpoint of stochastic control. The analysis of the subsequent nonlinear evolution partial differential equation was based upon a succession of Ansätze, which can lead to a solution of the terminal‐value problem. Through an application of the Lie Theory of Continuous Groups to this equation, we show that the Ansätze are based upon the underlying symmetries of the equation (their (14)). We solve the problem in a more general context by allowing the parameters to be explicitly time dependent. The extension means thatmore realistic problems are amenable to the samemode of solution. Copyright © 2014 JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of rating classes and default probabilities in credit risk models with dependencies

Let Y = m(X) + ε be a regression model with a dichotomous output Y and a one‐step regression function m . In the literature, estimators for the three parameters of m , that is, the breakpoint θ and the levels a and b , are proposed for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations. We show that these standard estimators also work in a non‐i.i.d. framework, that is, that they are strongly consistent under mild conditions. For that purpose, we use a linear one‐factor model for the input X and a Bernoulli mixture model for the output Y . The estimators for the split point and the risk levels are applied to a problem arising in credit rating systems. In particular, we divide the range of individuals' creditworthiness into two groups. The first group has a higher probability of default and the second group has a lower one. We also stress connections between the standard estimator for the cutoff θ and concepts prevalent in credit risk modeling, for example, receiver operating characteristic. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Information Network Modeling for U.S. Banking Systemic Risk

In this work we investigate whether information theory measures like mutual information and transfer entropy, extracted from a bank network, Granger cause financial stress indexes like LIBOR-OIS (London Interbank Offered Rate-Overnight Index Swap) spread, STLFSI (St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index) and USD/CHF (USA Dollar/Swiss Franc) exchange rate. The information theory measures are extracted from a Gaussian Graphical Model constructed from daily stock time series of the top 74 listed US banks. The graphical model is calculated with a recently developed algorithm (LoGo) which provides very fast inference model that allows us to update the graphical model each market day. We therefore can generate daily time series of mutual information and transfer entropy for each bank of the network. The Granger causality between the bank related measures and the financial stress indexes is investigated with both standard Granger-causality and Partial Granger-causality conditioned on control measures representative of the general economy conditions.     

基于博弈论的融资租赁保证金确定方法研究

针对融资租赁中租金偿还违约风险的防范问题,研究了如何合理设置租赁保证金来防范违约风险.运用博弈理论建立了租金偿还的动态博弈模型,采用逆向归纳法求解该博弈模型并推导出了预防性保证金确定方法及其适用条件,通过边界条件的改变继而推导出了补偿性保证金确定方法及其适用条件.算例分析表明,运用两种方法来计算租赁保证金时,只需已知租赁项目各期租金和租赁资产的价值而无需知道租赁项目的各期收益,仅以出租人预期租赁项目在各期的收益与租金之间的大小作为判据来选择保证金确定方法.两种保证金确定方法具有较高的实用性和可操作性,是出租人合理地确定租赁保证金的有效方法.     

Thermoeconomic analysis of an irreversible Stirling heat pump cycle

In this paper an analysis of the Stirling cycle in thermoeconomic terms is developed using the entropy generation. In the thermoeconomic optimization of an irreversible Stirling heat pump cycle the F function has been introduced to evaluate the optimum for the higher and lower sources temperature ratio in the cycle: this ratio represents the value which optimizes the cycle itself. The variation of the function F is proportional to the variation of the entropy generation, the maxima and minima of F has been evaluated in a previous paper without giving the physical foundation of the method. We investigate the groundwork of this approach: to study the upper and lower limits of F function allows to determine the cycle stability and the optimization conditions. The optimization consists in the best COP at the least cost. The principle of maximum variation for the entropy generation becomes the analytic foundation of the optimization method in the thermoeconomic analysis for an irreversible Stirling heat pump cycle.