一种基于序贯估计的直达声区水面舰船 被动测距方法 *

该文利用基于射线的盲解卷积方法，从直达声区的水面舰船噪声中提取出船和锚系于海底的垂直接收阵之间的时域信道响应，并利用直达波在不同阵元相对于参考阵元的到达时间差，通过序贯方法，利用射线模型和声速剖面信息，对水面舰船距接收阵的距离进行了估计。通过处理海深约为580 m的2016年美国圣巴巴拉海峡的实验数据，对1.6~3.5 km直达声区范围内Anna Maersk商船与垂直阵之间的距离进行了估计，验证了测距方法的有效性，并将结果与系统测量值和几何方法的估计值进行了比较。由于该方法不需要对海底参数进行估计，所以在海底参数未知时要优于传统匹配场方法；在声速剖面存在跃层且海底为多层分布的复杂信道条件下，该方法仍能对距离进行有效估计，且与测量值的相对误差在6%以内，小于几何方法的估计误差，测距结果精度较高。     

More efficient time integration for Fourier pseudospectral DNS of incompressible turbulence

Time integration of Fourier pseudospectral DNS is usually performed using the classical fourth-order accurate Runge-Kutta method or other second- or third-order methods, with a fixed step size. We investigate the use of higher-order Runge-Kutta pairs and automatic step size control based on local error estimation. We find that the fifth-order accurate Runge-Kutta pair of Bogacki and Shampine gives much greater accuracy at a significantly reduced computational cost. Specifically, we demonstrate speedups of 2× to 10× for the same accuracy. Numerical tests (including the Taylor-Green vortex, Rayleigh-Taylor instability, and homogeneous isotropic turbulence) confirm the reliability and efficiency of the method. We also show that adaptive time stepping provides a significant computational advantage for some problems (like the development of a Rayleigh-Taylor instability) without compromising accuracy.     

基于贝叶斯网络的船舶港口国监督检查滞留风险研究

针对港口国监督(Port State Control, PSC)检查的复杂性和不确定性, 基于贝叶斯网络理论构建船舶PSC检查滞留风险分析模型. 以东京备忘录(Tokyo MOU)中2014~2017年船舶PSC检查样本数据为基础, 运用R语言bnlearn包进行贝叶斯网络的结构及参数学习. 同时分别执行贝叶斯网络的正向、逆向推理, 定量表示各风险因素与滞留结果之间的相互作用关系, 找出导致船舶滞留的高风险因素, 实现不确定环境下船舶PSC检查滞留风险的全面动态分析. 实证表明, 模型具有较高的精确度, 可为检查人员的滞留决策及航运公司的安全风险管理提供有效依据.     

The Application of Fractal Transform and Entropy for Improving Fault Tolerance and Load Balancing in Grid Computing Environments

This paper applies the entropy-based fractal indexing scheme that enables the grid environment for fast indexing and querying. It addresses the issue of fault tolerance and load balancing-based fractal management to make computational grids more effective and reliable. A fractal dimension of a cloud of points gives an estimate of the intrinsic dimensionality of the data in that space. The main drawback of this technique is the long computing time. The main contribution of the suggested work is to investigate the effect of fractal transform by adding R-tree index structure-based entropy to existing grid computing models to obtain a balanced infrastructure with minimal fault. In this regard, the presented work is going to extend the commonly scheduling algorithms that are built based on the physical grid structure to a reduced logical network. The objective of this logical network is to reduce the searching in the grid paths according to arrival time rate and path’s bandwidth with respect to load balance and fault tolerance, respectively. Furthermore, an optimization searching technique is utilized to enhance the grid performance by investigating the optimum number of nodes extracted from the logical grid. The experimental results indicated that the proposed model has better execution time, throughput, makespan, latency, load balancing, and success rate.     

Determination,residue and risk assessment of trifloxystrobin,trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in Chinese rice consumption

A simple and rapid analytical method for the detection of trifloxystrobin, trifloxystrobin acid and tebuconazole in soil, brown rice, paddy plants and rice hulls was established and validated by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Acceptable linearity (R² > 0.99), accuracy (average recoveries of 74.3–108.5%) and precision (intra- and inter-day relative standard deviations of 0.9–8.8%) were obtained using the developed determination approach. In the field trial, the half-lives of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in paddy plants were 5.7–8.3 days in three locations throughout China, and the terminal residue concentrations of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole were <100 and 500 μg/kg (maximum residue limits set by China), respectively, at harvest, which indicated that, based on the recommended application procedure, trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole are safe for use on rice. The risk assessment results demonstrated that, owing to risk quotient values of both fungicides being <100%, the potential risk of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole on rice was acceptable for Chinese consumers. These data could provide supporting information for the proper use and safety evaluation of trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in rice.     

Residues,dissipation and risk evaluation of spiroxamine in open-field-grown strawberries using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

The dissipation dynamic and residues of spiroxamine in open-field-grown strawberries were determined using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS). Spiroxamine application was performed according to Egyptian good agricultural practices recommendation. A QuEChERS-based extraction method along with direct analysis with an LC–MS/MS analytical method were optimized and validated, and the specificity of the techniques used was considered satisfactory. Good linearity (R² > 0.999) was obtained for spiroxamine within the range of 0.001–0.1 μg/ml. The mean recoveries varied between 97.1 and 108.2%, with inter- and intra-day precision (RSD) <4.9%. The limit of quantitation for spiroxamine was 0.001 mg/kg. The results indicated that spiroxamine degradation in strawberry followed first–order kinetics (R² > 0.9929) with an estimated half-life value of 4.71 days. Considering the Australian maximum residue limit (0.05 mg/kg) in strawberry and based on the results from residue trials with a preharvest interval of 14 days for strawberry, compliance can be expected. The present results could provide guidance to fully evaluate the risks of spiroxamine residues, preventing any potential health risk to consumers.     

一类改进最大熵方法的可调参数分析

在结构可靠性分析中,引入含可调参数的转换函数能对传统的最大熵方法进行改进,获得更高的失效概率预测精度。但是,此可调参数的最佳取值很难确定。针对这一问题,引入概率守恒方程,从功能函数转换前后所得概率密度函数出发,建立其最大熵值的变化关系,给出转换前后最大熵值之差的理论形式。通过对三种典型单调非线性转换函数开展算例研究,发现功能函数转换前后的最大熵值之差与转换函数的最佳可调参数值有关。改变可调参数值驱使最大熵值之差变化的同时,改进最大熵方法能遍历到更好的失效概率估计值。     

Collective risk models with dependence

In actuarial science, collective risk models, in which the aggregate claim amount of a portfolio is defined in terms of random sums, play a crucial role. In these models, it is common to assume that the number of claims and their amounts are independent, even if this might not always be the case. We consider collective risk models with different dependence structures. Due to the importance of such risk models in an actuarial setting, we first investigate a collective risk model with dependence involving the family of multivariate mixed Erlang distributions. Other models based on mixtures involving bivariate and multivariate copulas in a more general setting are then presented. These different structures allow to link the number of claims to each claim amount, and to quantify the aggregate claim loss. Then, we use Archimedean and hierarchical Archimedean copulas in collective risk models, to model the dependence between the claim number random variable and the claim amount random variables involved in the random sum. Such dependence structures allow us to derive a computational methodology for the assessment of the aggregate claim amount. While being very flexible, this methodology is easy to implement, and can easily fit more complicated hierarchical structures.