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In some countries that energy prices are low, price elasticity of demand may not be significant. In this case, large increase or hike in energy prices may impact energy consumption in a way which cannot be drawn from historical data. This paper proposes an integrated adaptive fuzzy inference system (FIS) to forecast long-term natural gas (NG) consumption when prices experience large increase. To incorporate the impact of price hike into modeling, a novel procedure for construction and adaptation of Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy inference system (TS-FIS) is suggested. Linear regressions are used to construct a first order TS-FIS. Furthermore, adaptive network-based FIS (ANFIS) is used to forecast NG consumption in power plants. To cope with random uncertainty in small historical data sets, Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to generate training data for ANFIS. To show the applicability and usefulness of the proposed model, it is applied for forecasting of annual NG consumption in Iran where removing energy subsidies has resulted in a hike in NG prices.  相似文献
This paper presents a new discrete approach to the price-based dynamic economic dispatch (PBDED) problem of fossil-fuel generators of electricity. The objective is to find a sequence of generator temperatures that maximizes profit over a fixed-length time horizon. The generic optimization model presented in this paper can be applied to automatic operation of fossil-fuel generators or to prepare market bids, and it works with various price forecasts. The model’s practical applications are demonstrated by the results of simulation experiments involving 2009 NYISO electricity market data, branch-and-bound, and tabu-search optimization techniques.  相似文献
基于2000年1月至2014年4月的月度数据,利用 VAR模型对煤炭、石油、天然气三种能源价格波动影响国内物价水平的传导效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,能源价格的传导既存在供给拉动作用又存在需求推动作用;能源价格变动对生产领域的影响大于对消费领域的影响,且不同能源对我国物价的影响程度存在明显差异,其中,原油价格对原材料燃料动力购进价格指数和工业品出厂价格指数的影响大于煤炭和天然气。  相似文献
基于供给需求理论构建了能源——经济联立方程模型,定量研究各类能源价格变化对我国宏观经济的影响.结果发现,能源价格上涨可以降低能源消耗,通过供给渠道对潜在生产能力和GDP产生紧缩作用,对通货膨胀产生向上压力.石油价格上涨对主要经济指标的影响略小,煤炭价格与电力价格上涨对经济的影响较大,煤、电价格联合上涨对经济的影响最大.这与目前我国能源消费结构吻合.各种能源价格的持续上涨冲击对潜在产出、能源消费、能源强度和碳排放强度的负向影响有继续增强的趋势.  相似文献
Electricity swing options are supply contracts for power, which give the owner the right to change the required delivery on short time notice. It gives more flexibility than fixed base load or peak load contracts. The name “option” is a bit misleading, since it gives the owner multiple exercise rights at many different time horizons with exercise amounts on a continuous scale. We look at the problem to determine a rational ask price for such a contract from the viewpoint of the contract seller. The pricing of these contracts differs drastically from the pricing of financial options. First, peculiar properties arise from the non-storability of the underlying (the energy) and therefore the impossibility to hedge with the underlying, hedging is only possible with some future contracts. Second, the behavior of the owner plays an important role. Based on some behavioral model for the option holder, we develop a game-theoretic model, which allows to identify the equilibrium price. Besides some theoretical results, we present some numerical results which clarify the dependence of the asked price on the amount of flexibility offered in the swing option.  相似文献
A new pricing scheme is proposed for determining the social welfare distribution in a centralized pool-based auction in the context of solving the unit commitment problems under competition. A significant contribution of this paper over previous publications on this subject is the inclusion of the price-responsive demand side for the multi-period auctions with dynamic commitment characteristics. The model allows every thermal unit and every consumer to obtain individual maximum profits, and at the same time it gives the market coordinator an adequate tool for solving the ensuing technologically constrained unit commitment problem with fair market clearing. The pricing model is in the form of a mixed linear programming model that minimizes the sum of the compensation costs. The accompanying case study illustrates the approach proposed.  相似文献
Deep Learning (DL) is combined with extreme value theory (EVT) to predict peak loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose a deep temporal extreme value model to capture these effects, which predicts the tail behavior of load spikes. Deep long‐short‐term memory architectures with rectified linear unit activation functions capture trends and temporal dependencies, while EVT captures highly volatile load spikes above a prespecified threshold. To illustrate our methodology, we develop forecasting models for hourly price and demand from the PJM interconnection. The goal is to show that DL‐EVT outperforms traditional methods, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample, by capturing the observed nonlinearities in prices and demand spikes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.  相似文献
目前人民币国际化已被广泛关注,国际大宗商品贸易、特别是能源贸易中计价货币绑定成为货币走向世界的新道路,因此研究人民币国际化与能源价格的关系对于进一步推动人民币国际化有着重要意义.本文选用渣打银行人民币环球指数来度量人民币国际化进程,利用协整、格兰杰因果和脉冲响应三种方法对人民币国际化与国内外石油及煤炭价格的互动关系进行了研究.实证结果表明:人民币国际化与能源价格之间存在长期均衡关系,且短期内能源价格变动对于人民币国际化变动都有着正向的影响.并且,石油价格以及国内煤炭价格是人民币国际化的格兰杰原因,而人民币国际化指数仅仅是国际煤炭价格的格兰杰原因;最后,通过脉冲响应分析,发现能源价格变动对人民币国际化进程有积极推动作用.  相似文献
以滞量τ为分支参数,研究了具时滞的能源价格模型的动力学行为,这些行为包括:系统在平衡点附近的稳定性,局部Hopf分支的存在性,发生条件.Hopf分支的方向,分支周期解的稳定性以及分支随参数变化其周期解的周期变化.最后通过数值模拟验证了理论分析结果,并用分支理论解释了能源价格模型产生且维持周期振荡的原因.  相似文献
采用Khasminskii极限定理,随机平均法和FPK方程,研究了能源价格系统在随机干扰作用下的Hopf分岔特性,得到了分岔参数,并讨论了分岔参数对系统性态的影响.进而得出能源经济系统的相关结论.  相似文献
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