基于CEEMD的重大事件对香港住宅价格影响的实证分析

应用互补集成经验模态分解（CEEMD）方法对香港1997―2018年的住宅价格月度数据进行了分解，将经过重构后的数据分成高频序列、低频序列与残差项。将BP多断点检测应用于低频序列，并结合样本时段内的重大事件进行实证分析。结果表明：1997年亚洲金融风暴对房价的影响大于2008年金融危机；外部经济体的救市政策间接地影响香港房价；在经济不景气的大环境下“孙九招”政策没有立即见效；资本投资者入境计划、住房供给调整与按揭贷款调整对房价的影响较为显著；税收调整对房价影响不显著、对交易量影响显著；SARS爆发使住宅价格下降约1%。     

Anisotropy Effects and Observational Data on the Constraints of Evolution Dark Energy Models

We investigate cosmological dark energy models where the accelerated expansion of the universe is driven by a field with an anisotropic universe. The constraints on the parameters are obtained by maximum likelihood analysis using observational of 194 Type Ia supernovae(SNIa) and the most recent joint light-curve analysis(JLA) sample. In particular we reconstruct the dark energy equation of state parameter w(z) and the deceleration parameter q(z). We find that the best fit dynamical w(z) obtained from the 194 SNIa dataset does not cross the phantom divide line w(z) =-1 and remains above and close to w(z)≈-0.92 line for the whole redshift range 0 ≤ z ≤ 1.75 showing no evidence for phantom behavior. By applying the anisotropy effect on the ΛCDM model, the joint analysis indicates that ?_(σ0)= 0.0163 ± 0.03,with 194 SNIa, ?_(σ0)=-0.0032 ± 0.032 with 238 the SiFTO sample of JLA and ?_(σ0)= 0.011 ± 0.0117 with 1048 the SALT2 sample of Pantheon at 1σ′confidence interval. The analysis shows that by considering the anisotropy, it leads to more best fit parameters in all models with JLA SNe datasets. Furthermore, we use two statistical tests such as the usual χ_(min)~2/dof and p-test to compare two dark energy models with ΛCDM model. Finally we show that the presence of anisotropy is confirmed in mentioned models via SNIa dataset.     

Empirical Likelihood Estimation for the Two-Sample Mean under Density Ratio Models Using Auxiliary Information

Auxiliary population information is often available in finite population inference problems, and the empirical likelihood (EL) approach has been demonstrated to be flexible and useful for such problems. The present paper concerns EL when interest centers on inference for the mean of the baseline distribution under two-sample density ratio models. Although dual EL is a convenient technical tool since it has the same maximum point and maximum likelihood as DRM-based EL, it can not combine such auxiliary information into the likelihood conveniently and may have loss of efficiency. By contrast, the classical EL approach of Qin and Lawless\ucite{21} does not have this problem and incorporate seamlessly auxiliary information. Based on the EL using auxiliary information and the dual EL methods, we construct both point and interval estimations and make a careful comparison. Though the point estimation efficiency gain obtained by the former is not noticeable, we find that they may have different performances in interval estimation. In terms of coverage accuracy, the two intervals are comparable for not or moderate skewed populations, and the EL interval using auxiliary information can be much superior for severely skewed populations.     

Mechanical deformations of a liquid crystal elastomer at director angles between 0° and 90°: Deducing an empirical model encompassing anisotropic nonlinearity

Despite the wealth of studies reporting mechanical properties of liquid crystal elastomers (LCEs), no theory can currently describe their complete mechanical anisotropy and nonlinearity. Here, we present the first comprehensive study of mechanical anisotropy in an all‐acrylate LCE via tensile tests that simultaneously track liquid crystal (LC) director rotation. We then use an empirical approach to gain a deeper insight into the LCE's mechanical responses at values of strain, up to 1.5, for initial director orientations between 0° and 90°. Using a method analogous to time–temperature superposition, we create master curves for the LCE's mechanical response and use these to deduce a model that accurately predicts the load curve of the LCE for stresses applied at angles between 15° and 70° relative to the initial LC director. This LCE has been shown to exhibit auxetic behavior for deformations perpendicular to the director. Interestingly, our empirical model predicts that the LCE will further demonstrate auxetic behavior when stressed at angles between 54° and 90° to the director. Our approach could be extended to any LCE; so it represents a significant step forward toward models that would aid the further development of LCE theory and the design and modeling of LCE‐based technologies. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Polymer Science Part B: Polymer Physics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Polym. Sci., Part B: Polym. Phys. 2019, 57, 1367–1377     

Empirical Likelihood Inference for Functional Coefficient ARCH-M Model

Empirical likelihood inference for parametric and nonparametric parts in functional coefficient ARCH-M models is investigated in this paper. Firstly, the kernel smoothing technique is used to estimate coefficient function δ(x). In this way we obtain an estimated function with parameter β.Secondly, the empirical likelihood method is developed to estimate the parameter β. An estimated empirical log-likelohood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squred, and the maximum empirical likelihood estimation(MELE) for β is shown to be asymptotically normal. Finally, based on the MELE of β, the empirical likelihood approach is again applied to reestimate the nonparametric part δ(x). The empirical log-likelohood ratio for δ(x) is proved to be also asymptotically standard chi-squred. Simulation study shows that the proposed method works better than the normal approximation method in terms of average areas of confidence regions for β, and the empirical likelihood confidence belt for δ(x) performs well.     

累积Logistic回归模型结构变点的序贯检验

分类时间序列在生物医学、社会学和遗传学等领域有着广泛的应用,累积Logistic回归模型是分类时间序列建模的一类重要模型.本文基于偏似然得分过程(Partial likelihood score process)提出一种变点序贯检验方法,监测累积Logistic回归模型的结构是否发生变化.原假设下推导检验统计量的极限分布,备择假设下证明其一致性.模拟试验和实例分析说明了方法的有效性.     

Monomer relative affinity in a copolymer

This paper analyzes data from experiments on simple polymer chains. It measures the extent to which a particular monomer prefers to link with another of the same type. To analyze the data, it derives the likelihood function for a two‐state Markov model in which only the number in each state, but not the order, is observed. This technology is applied to a data set on which experimenters mixed lactic‐glycolic monomers with a known proportion of a contaminant consisting of an extra lactic acid. The resulting copolymers were subjected to matrix‐assisted laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry. This records the number of copolymers at each atomic weight, which can be associated with a given length of copolymer and number of contaminant monomers. Analysis of the data shows that the proportion of contaminant monomers exceeded the proportion of experimentally induced contaminant. Maximum likelihood estimates using the data show that lactic‐glycolic monomers show a positive affinity for the contaminant. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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In this paper, the empirical Bayes (EB) two-sided test for parameter of Cox models is investigated under square loss functions. At first by using recursive kernel estimation of probability function the empirical Bayes two-sided test rule is constructed. It proves that the proposed empirical Bayes test rule is asymptotic optimal and convergence rates are obtained under suitable conditions. Finally an example of satisfying theorem conditions is given.     

稀土安全评价:集成算法改进与实证

稀土作为我国战略性矿产资源,其安全问题一直是政府和学术界关注与研究的重要课题.建立了稀土安全的概念框架与评价体系,针对传统AHP中九标度法的不足,基于熵值法、加速遗传算法及扩充标度值的层次分析法,提出了一种改进的层次分析法(EV-AGA-EAHP),通过集成模糊C-均值聚类算法和模糊综合评价法,研究提出了一种模糊综合集成评价方法(EV-AGA-EAHP-FCM-FIJ),给出了集成算法及步骤,对2001-2013年我国稀土安全水平进行了评价,提出了保障我国稀土安全的建议.     

A Cross-Entropy Approach to the Estimation of Generalized Linear Multilevel Models

In this article, we use the cross-entropy method for noisy optimization for fitting generalized linear multilevel models through maximum likelihood. We propose specifications of the instrumental distributions for positive and bounded parameters that improve the computational performance. We also introduce a new stopping criterion, which has the advantage of being problem-independent. In a second step we find, by means of extensive Monte Carlo experiments, the most suitable values of the input parameters of the algorithm. Finally, we compare the method to the benchmark estimation technique based on numerical integration. The cross-entropy approach turns out to be preferable from both the statistical and the computational point of view. In the last part of the article, the method is used to model the probability of firm exits in the healthcare industry in Italy. Supplemental materials are available online.