Moderate Deviation for the Rightmost Position in a Branching Brownian Motion

We study the moderate deviation probability of the position of the rightmost particle in a branching Brownian motion and obtain its moderate deviation function. Firstly, Chauvin and Rouault studied the large deviation probability for the rightmost position in a branching Brownian motion. Recently, Derrida and Shiconsidered lower deviation for the same model. By contrast, Our main result is more extensive.     

基于时变Copula模型的 基金收益率相依关系的应用研究

基于时变Copula模型,获得预测方差,确定单个基金收益率序列的边缘分布.利用常见的静态Copula和时变Copula模型对基金收益率序列间两两相依关系进行建模并进行对比分析.应用研究表明,基于MCMC方法的时变Copula模型能更有效地度量基金收益率序列的风险.     

一类改进最大熵方法的可调参数分析

在结构可靠性分析中,引入含可调参数的转换函数能对传统的最大熵方法进行改进,获得更高的失效概率预测精度。但是,此可调参数的最佳取值很难确定。针对这一问题,引入概率守恒方程,从功能函数转换前后所得概率密度函数出发,建立其最大熵值的变化关系,给出转换前后最大熵值之差的理论形式。通过对三种典型单调非线性转换函数开展算例研究,发现功能函数转换前后的最大熵值之差与转换函数的最佳可调参数值有关。改变可调参数值驱使最大熵值之差变化的同时,改进最大熵方法能遍历到更好的失效概率估计值。     

Improving the approximation of the probability density function of random nonautonomous logistic‐type differential equations

In this paper, we address the problem of approximating the probability density function of the following random logistic differential equation: P^′(t,ω)=A(t,ω)(1?P(t,ω))P(t,ω), t∈[t₀,T], P(t₀,ω)=P₀(ω), where ω is any outcome in the sample space Ω. In the recent contribution [Cortés, JC, et al. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simulat 2019; 72: 121–138], the authors imposed conditions on the diffusion coefficient A(t) and on the initial condition P₀ to approximate the density function f₁(p,t) of P(t): A(t) is expressed as a Karhunen–Loève expansion with absolutely continuous random coefficients that have certain growth and are independent of the absolutely continuous random variable P₀, and the density of P₀, , is Lipschitz on (0,1). In this article, we tackle the problem in a different manner, by using probability tools that allow the hypotheses to be less restrictive. We only suppose that A(t) is expanded on L²([t₀,T]×Ω), so that we include other expansions such as random power series. We only require absolute continuity for P₀, so that A(t) may be discrete or singular, due to a modified version of the random variable transformation technique. For , only almost everywhere continuity and boundedness on (0,1) are needed. We construct an approximating sequence of density functions in terms of expectations that tends to f₁(p,t) pointwise. Numerical examples illustrate our theoretical results.     

Birnbaum‐Saunders distribution: A review of models,analysis, and applications

Birnbaum and Saunders introduced a two‐parameter lifetime distribution to model the fatigue life of a metal, subject to cyclic stress. Since then, extensive work has been done on this model providing different interpretations, constructions, generalizations, inferential methods, and extensions to bivariate, multivariate, and matrix‐variate cases. More than 200 papers and one research monograph have already appeared describing all these aspects and developments. In this paper, we provide a detailed review of all these developments and, at the same time, indicate several open problems that could be considered for further research.     

Multistrain edge‐based compartmental model on networks

Multistrain diseases, which are infected through individual contacts, pose severe public health threat nowadays. In this paper, we build competitive and mutative two‐strain edge‐based compartmental models using probability generation function (PGF) and pair approximation (PA). Both of them are ordinary differential equations. Their basic reproduction numbers and final size formulas are explicitly derived. We show that the formula gives a unique positive final epidemic size when the reproduction number is larger than unity. We further consider competitive and mutative multistrain diseases spreading models and compute their basic reproduction numbers. We perform numerical simulations that show some dynamical properties of the competitive and mutative two‐strain models.     

The survival probability of critical and subcritical branching processes in finite state space Markovian environment

Let ${\left(Z_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ be a branching process in a random environment defined by a Markov chain ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ with values in a finite state space $\mathbb{X}$. Let ${\mathbb{P}}_i$ be the probability law generated by the trajectories of ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ starting at $X_0=i\in \mathbb{X}.$ We study the asymptotic behaviour of the joint survival probability ${\mathbb{P}}_i\left(Z_n>0,X_n=j\right)$, $j\in \mathbb{X}$ as $n\to +\infty$ in the critical and strongly, intermediate and weakly subcritical cases.     

Persistence of sums of correlated increments and clustering in cellular automata

Let $T$ be the first return time to $(?\infty ,0]$ of sums of increments given by a functional of a stationary Markov chain. We determine the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability, $\mathbb{P}(T\ge t)～C{t}^{?1∕2}$ for an explicit constant $C$. Our analysis is based on a connection between the survival probability and the running maximum of the time-reversed process, and relies on a functional central limit theorem for Markov chains. As applications, we recover known clustering results for the 3-color cyclic cellular automaton and the Greenberg–Hastings model, and we prove a new clustering result for the 3-color firefly cellular automaton.