运用系统动力学模型预测稀土战略储备规模

基于全球稀土资源的供需形势和中国稀土资源减少的趋势,运用系统动力学的模型来预测未来17年我国稀土资源储备量。选取了2000~2013的生产和消费数据,通过定量模拟计算中国稀土供需差波动系数,设计了稀土资源供需差波动范围分别为0%,20%的两个方案,模拟计算了两个方案的年储备量、累计储备量和储备量绝对值。方案一范围是(-0%,+0%),仿真预测出稀土未来17年累积储备量为720551 t,即战略储备规模达到720551 t,该方案下不论供需差发生如何波动,国家都会进行储备或释放调节;方案二范围是(-20%,+20%),预测出未来17年战略储备规模为461331 t,国家只需在这个范围外进行收储释放调节,从而调节市场供求,降低价格波动幅度。本文从不同供需差的波动系数来模拟计算储备量,目的是为国家相关部门在进行稀土储备决策时提供参考,可以根据我国经济景气状况和供需形势,以及稀土产业发展状况,进行不同规模的稀土储备。     

不确定需求与产出供应链回购契约决策

针对市场需求的不确定性和供应商产出产品合格率的不确定性,提出供应商产出量小于销售商订购量时需再生产满足销售商的订购,以及供应商生产过量和回购的产品通过折扣市场出售,建立以供应链期望利润为目标函数,以回购单价为决策变量的供应链回购契约决策模型.通过模型的分析,证明了模型存在最优的期望利润,给出了最优回购单价满足的方程;同时,也证明了最优订购量,最优生产量和销售商最优期望利润是回购单价的增函数.最后,通过算例验证了模型的有效性.     

基于向后逐步回归模型的我国农机需求特征及影响因素研究

以2004-2014年数据为样本,以农机总动力为因变量,以农机购置补贴、农机价格、农机作业服务价格、农户人均纯收入、农产品价格、农业劳动力数量和农作物播种总面积为自变量构建了我国农机需求影响因素的回归方程,向后逐步回归结果表明:(1)除农作物播种总面积、农机作业服务价格、农产品价格之外,其余变量对农机总动力的影响均统计上显著;(2)农机购置补贴、农机价格指数、农户人均纯收入及农业劳动力四个变量对农机需求的弹性系数分别为0.027、-0.004、0.457、0.474。最后根据研究结果提出加大与落实农机购置补贴、规范农机价格、培育新型经营主体、加速土地规范流转等政策建议。     

“禁摩限电”效果综合评价模型

将交通需求级别进行划分后,通过数据包络分析法计算交通需求匹配度和交通运行效率,近乎绝对细化交通运行表现,依据具有时间轴的四维交通状况模拟建立了全新多维度的交通评价体系。此外,利用模糊层次分析法确定道路交通安全评价指标体系中各个指标的权重,同时作出基于差异驱动原理的综合评价。最后,将交通的污染指标提炼为机动车的排放指标和电动车的耗电指标来衡量交通工具对环境的影响。     

碳税政策下时变需求依赖库存与价格的供应链协调模型

研究由一个供应商和一个零售组成的二级供应链系统在碳税政策下的协调问题.对于市场需求率为时变函数且依赖于当前库存水平和销售价格的情形,建立分散式和集中式供应链决策模型.比较两种模型得出供应商和零售商合作能够提高供应链的整体利润但是也会产生更多的碳排放.分别利用批发价格契约和两部收费契约协调分散式决策模型得出供应链协调的条件.最后通过数值算例验证理论结果并分析碳税单价对供应链在两部收费契约下实现协调的影响.     

Stochastic optimization of an urban rail timetable under time‐dependent and uncertain demand

Urban rail planning is extremely complex, mainly because it is a decision problem under different uncertainties. In practice, travel demand is generally uncertain, and therefore, the timetabling decisions must be based on accurate estimation. This research addresses the optimization of train timetable at public transit terminals of an urban rail in a stochastic setting. To cope with stochastic fluctuation of arrival rates, a two‐stage stochastic programming model is developed. The objective is to construct a daily train schedule that minimizes the expected waiting time of passengers. Due to the high computational cost of evaluating the expected value objective, the sample average approximation method is applied. The method provided statistical estimations of the optimality gap as well as lower and upper bounds and the associated confidence intervals. Numerical experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the solution method.     

Anaerobic biological treatment of dye bearing water in anaerobic sequencing batch reactor: Performance and kinetics studies

Textile and dye industries are main sources of dye bearing effluent. In present studies the anaerobic biological degradation of Acid Red 3BN dye water (AR3BNDW) and mixed dye water (MDW) for reduction of color and COD were studied in sequential batch reactor (SBR). The sludge as sources of microorganism was arranged from maize processing bio methanation wastewater treatment plant, which was acclimatized for treatment of AR3BNDW and MDW. After the acclimatization, dyes degradation were studied in SBR At optimum operation condition of hydraulics retention time (HRT) = 2.5 d, and treatment time (t_R) = 16 h, AR3BNDW have gone maximum 87% color reduction of 500 mg/L dye, and 82.8% COD reduction of 380 mg/L COD. At same operating condition, 84.5% color reduction of 500 mg/L dye, and 79.42% COD reduction of 413 mg/L COD achieved for MDW. The second order Grau model was fitted well for COD and dye reductions. The kinetics parameter were evaluated for both the dye water.     

Synthesis and application of silica and calcium carbonate nanoparticles in the reduction of organics from refinery wastewater

Oil refinery is one of the fast growing industries across the globe and it is expected to progress in the near future. The worldwide increase in the generation of refinery wastewater along with strict environmental regulations in the discharge of industrial effluent, persistent efforts have been devoted to recycle and reuse the treated water. The wastewater from the refining operation leads to serious environmental threat to the ecosystem. Therefore, this study aimed to synthesize silica (SiO₂) and calcium carbonate nanoparticles (CaCO₃) in the reduction of organics from refinery wastewater. The synthesized nanoparticles were employed in the reduction of chemical oxygen demand (COD) from refinery wastewater by studying the influence of solution pH, contact time, dosage of nanoparticles and stirring speed on adsorption performance. From the batch experimental studies, the optimized processing conditions for the reduction of COD using SiO₂ nanoparticles are pH 4.0, dosage 0.5 g, stirring speed 125 rpm and 90 min stirring time, and the corresponding values for CaCO₃ nanoparticles are pH 8.0, dosage 0.4 g, stirring speed 100 rpm and 90 min stirring time. The study demonstrates that SiO₂ and CaCO₃ nanoparticles have a promising future in the reduction organics from refinery wastewater in different pH regimes.     

Intensified sonochemical degradation of 2-Picoline in combination with advanced oxidizing agents

2-picoline is a very important pyridine derivative with significant applications though it is also poisonous and harmful having considerable adverse influence on aquatic life, environment and organisms. The need for developing effective treatment methodologies for 2-Picoline directed the current work focusing on degradation of 2-Picoline using the combination of ultrasound and advanced oxidants such as hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), potassium persulphate (KPS), Fenton’s reagent, and Peroxymonosulphate (PMS) along with the use of Titanium oxide (TiO₂) as catalyst. Ultrasonic bath having 8 L capacity and operating frequency of 40 ± 2 kHz has been used. The effect of parameters like power, initial pH, temperature, time and initial concentration of 2-Picoline were studied to establish best operating conditions which were further used in the combination treatment approaches of ultrasound with oxidising agents. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) reduction for the optimized approaches of ultrasound in combination with oxidizing agents was also determined. Degradation experiments were performed using oxidising agents also in absence of ultrasound to investigate the individual treatment capacity of the oxidants and also the synergetic index for the combination. Kinetic study demonstrated that second order model suited for all the treatment approaches except US/Fenton where first order model fitted better. Ultrasound in combination with Fenton reagent demonstrated a substantial synergy for the degradation of 2-Picoline compared to other treatment approaches showing highest degradation of 97.6 %, synergetic index as 5.71, cavitational yield of 1.82 × 10⁻⁵ mg/J and COD removal of 82.4 %.     

不同补贴对象下闭环供应链信息共享价值研究

在一个制造商和一个零售商组成的二级闭环供应链中,为研究政府补贴下供应链需求信息共享对决策的影响及共享价值,针对两种补贴对象,构建并求解无信息共享和信息共享博弈模型,并进行仿真验证.研究表明:1)两种补贴对象下,制造商均能从信息共享中获益,零售商仅在绿色成本和回收成本较低时才会从信息共享中获益;绿色成本和回收成本稍高时,设计基于谈判势力的信息补偿机制能有效促进零售商共享信息.2)产品绿色度和回收率随预测需求量的提高而提高,批发价和零售价仅在回收成本较低时,才会随预测需求量的提高而提高.3)在仅补贴一方情况下,当补贴对象为低补贴一方时,两个主体所获的信息共享价值大;若对两者的补贴均较低,两个主体均希望补贴对象为零售商;若对两者的补贴均较高,零售商不愿共享需求信息.