基于面板模型的商品房价格影响因素的实证研究

选取了我国30个省市2006~2015年的面板数据,应用面板数据计量模型回归的方法,基于R语言对影响商品房价格的因素进行实证研究.首先,经过Hausman检验与F检验确定面板数据的模型为混合估计模型;模型可以通过十折交叉验证法、残差正太性的检验、Q-Q图检验、变量间共线性的检验;最后经过逐步回归分析,结果表明土地价格、商品房销售面积、居民可支配收入、人均国内总产值财政收入占地区生产总值比重、汇率这6个指标对商品房价格都有显著性的影响.其中,土地价格和居民可支配收入对商品房价格的影响最为突出.     

Multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue

Forecasting enterprise-wide revenue is critical to many companies and presents several challenges and opportunities for significant business impact. This case study is based on model developments to address these challenges for forecasting in a large-scale retail company. Focused on multivariate revenue forecasting across collections of supermarkets and product categories, hierarchical dynamic models are natural: these are able to couple revenue streams in an integrated forecasting model, while allowing conditional decoupling to enable relevant and sensitive analysis together with scalable computation. Structured models exploit multi-scale modeling to cascade information on price and promotion activities as predictors relevant across categories and groups of stores. With a context-relevant focus on forecasting revenue 12 weeks ahead, the study highlights product categories that benefit from multi-scale information, defines insights into when, how, and why multivariate models improve forecast accuracy, and shows how cross-category dependencies can relate to promotion decisions in one category impacting others. Bayesian modeling developments underlying the case study are accessible in custom code for interested readers.     

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ARTIFICIAL AND COMMERCIAL PIPES IN TRANSITION ZONE1)

管路沿程损失是教学中要讲的内容。其中在过渡粗糙区,人工管和商业管的沿程损失系数存在差异。本文对此差异做了初步分析。从学生对此差异的理解和表面粗糙度的含义两方面探讨了表面粗糙度对此差异的影响。量化探讨表面粗糙度在过渡粗糙区的作用仍是个问题。     

黑龙江省的界河坍塌地质灾害及其防治对策

界河坍塌是黑龙江省特殊的、主要的地质灾害,也是当前亟待解决的问题。本文总结了黑龙江省的两条主要界河—黑龙江和乌苏里江的塌岸状况;说明了界河坍塌的分布规律;论证了界河坍塌的形态类型;探讨了界河坍塌的形成机制;分析了界河坍塌的原因;最后提出了防止界河坍塌的一系列对策。     

银行间债券市场的外部效率:基于商业银行的视角

以参与我国银行间债券市场的商业银行为研究对象,运用面板数据模型检验银行间债券市场的外部效率对于商业银行经营绩效的影响.实证结果表明:我国银行间债券市场的发展对于商业银行的盈利能力和流动性管理水平均有较强的外部正效率,而对于商业银行传统盈利模式和风险管理则具有负面影响.建议商业银行应利用银行间债券市场的外部正效率提高其资产负债管理水平,通过提升自身经营管理水平来降低银行间债券市场外部负效率对自身的影响;此外监管当局还应该降低小型金融机构进入银行间债券市场的门槛,以发挥该市场外部正效率对化解区域金融风险的作用.     

互联网金融背景下我国上市商业银行的效率实证研究

本文通过数据包络分析(DEA)中的CRS模型和VRS模型,对我国16家上市商业银行于2007至2014年在互联网金融背景下的效率进行了测度。根据16家商业银行的综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率的变动情况,来分析互联网金融对商业银行造成影响和冲击。结果表明,商业银行的整体效率波动与互联网金融环境的变化基本一致,并且,商业银行的规模效率变化与综合技术效率变化保持一致,股份制商业银行的规模效率一直高于国有商业银行。     

A novel technique for predicting ionizing radiation effects of commercial MOS devices

A nondestructive selection technique for predicting ionizing radiation effects of commercial metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) devices has been put forward. The basic principle and application details of this technique have been discussed. Practical application for the 54HC04 and 54HC08 circuits has shown that the predicted radiation-sensitive parameters such as threshold voltage, static power supply current and radiation failure total dose are consistent with the experimental results obtained only by measuring original electrical parameters. It is important and necessary to choose suitable information parameters. This novel technique can be used for initial radiation selection of some commercial MOS devices.     

Evaluating the performance of Swedish savings banks according to service efficiency

This article develops principles for an evaluation of the efficiency of a savings bank. It starts out from the observation that such a bank is less profit oriented than a commercial bank. The customer is a vital stakeholder to the savings bank implying a greater emphasis on customer service provision. We are using data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a method to consider the service orientation of savings banks. We thereby demonstrate how an evaluation of the performance of savings banks according to “service efficiency” differs from an evaluation based on the traditional “profit” or shareholder concept. We determine the number of Swedish savings banks being “service efficient” as well as the average degree of service efficiency in this industry.     

变动供给下的多物品拍卖

变动供给下的多物品拍卖是在线拍卖的形式之一，但对这一问题的相关研究未能真正地解决销售商如何确定待拍商品的数量和价格问题。本就变动供给下的多物品拍卖问题，建立了一个新的决策分析模型，与已有的模型相比，它不仅能同时确定待售商品的数量与价格，而且能有效地避免替代性商品间的外部性损失，为销售商的决策提供参考。