建设工程招标评标的模糊方法研究

通过对招标评标的系统分析，建立了评标指标体系，提出了模糊综合评价模型和评价方法，并通过典型实例说明了模型的应用。     

博弈论视角的多属性逆向拍卖评标行为研究

技术属性和商务属性间强负相关性会诱导两组评标专家间的对立情绪和不合作行为,评标管理部门对评标专家的组织管理是评标公平性的重要因素. 以博弈论为工具分别建立了多属性逆向拍卖分组评标机制下技术专家和商务专家之间、管理部门与评标专家之间行为的理论模型和研究框架,分析了纯策略纳什均衡解存在的条件.然后,分析了影响技术与商务专家、 管理部门与评标专家之间策略选择的因素,揭示了评标参数对均衡的影响. 为便于研究博弈主体行为,基于Matlab GUI平台开发了分组多属性逆向拍卖评标和管理行为仿真系统. 数值仿真了评标环境的改变和决策参数的不同对均衡结果的影响.     

不平衡报价跨期选择的多因素交互作用研究

报价人的跨期选择心理特征将直接影响不平衡报价策略,从而影响工程结算额度与经营效益。为揭示不平衡报价决策者的跨期选择心理机制,针对不平衡报价策略制定过程中出现的跨期选择心理效应问题,基于跨期结算组合策略的最大效用原则,并假设报价决策者为有限理性人,引入时间尺度、时间框架、理性水平3个变量,采用23(3因素2水平)设计,通过发放调查问卷方式,对跨期选择的多因素交互作用进行研究。研究结果表明,时间尺度、理性水平及时间框架主效应显著;理性水平与时间框架、理性水平与时间尺度、理性水平与时间框架和时间尺度的交互作用显著。在日期框架中,时间尺度较小时的报价均高于时间尺度较大时的报价;在延迟天数时间框架中,高理性水平报价人在时间尺度较小时的报价低于时间尺度较大时的报价,而低理性水平报价人则相反。研究结果对于增强不平衡报价决策效率、实现理性化决策具有重要的指导意义。     

Characterization of Iran electricity market indices with pay-as-bid payment mechanism

Market data analysis in Iran’s electricity market as a market with a pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered in this paper. The analysis procedure includes both predictability and correlation analysis of the most important load and price indices. The experimental data from Iran’s electricity market has been employed in its real size which is long enough to take properties such as non-stationarity of the market into account. For predictability, the characteristics of the hourly accepted Weighted Average Price (WAP) as the topmost price index of this market is analyzed. The analysis tools are time series analysis methods such as power spectral density analysis, phase space reconstruction and test of surrogates, the fractional dimension and the slope of integral sums and the recurrence plots. The results indicate a deterministic, un-stationary and seasonal behavior in addition to unstable periodic orbits and even chaotic behavior in WAP time series. These observations imply just short-term predictability of WAP behavior. The interactive behavior of WAP with the hourly required load (RL) is also considered. For this interaction analysis, in addition to the common correlation methods, cross and joint recurrence plot are also employed. The joint behavioral analysis represents an un-stationary mimic correlation between WAP and RL.     

车辆牌照拍卖模型

提出多个相同物品(如车辆牌照)同时密封拍卖的模型，给出对称均衡竞标策略；证明了该拍卖方式与第一价格密封连续拍卖产生相同的预期收益；对估价为均匀分布的拍卖预期收益进行了研究。     

Internet广告决策和智能代理模型

利用概率模型及模糊数学的基本建模思想，描述了一种应用于因特网上的广告决策和智能代理模型，进而给出了一种高效的因特网广告决策方案。     

工程招投标中的激励机制分析

本文试图利用博弈理论 ,对工程招投标过程中存在的现象进行分析 ,并建立了相应的对策模型 .目的是通过所建模型讨论工程招投标过程中招投标双方的对策及博弈 ,力图达到一种均衡     

基于灰色系统理论的工程项目评标方法研究

工程项目评标实质是多目标决策问题,为优先出合适的投标单位,建立灰色Euclid理论工程项目评标决策模型.首先,运用层次分析法(AHP)与信息熵法分别确定主客观权重.然后利用博弈集结模型对指标体系进行组合赋权,得到综合权重.最后,结合工程项目评标实例运用灰色Euclid理论评标模型进行评标决策.结果表明,运用博弈集结组合赋权和灰色Euclid理论模型选出投标单位D为最优方案,与实际评标一致,验证了模型的可操作性和适用性.     

Application of multi-dimensional procurement auction in single-period inventory models

Procurement is one of the major activities in the Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRP II), which is closely coupled with inventory management. Any improvement in this area will have a direct impact on the performance of the entire supply chain. Auction mechanism can be a successful procurement method when there are several potential suppliers available. In this paper, we consider a single-period inventory model when the selection of the supplier is done through a reverse auction with bids consisting of several attributes, namely price, shortage quantity, and lead time. The multi-dimensionality of the bid increases the complexity of the underlying problem creating a need for an approach to determine an approximate optimal target level. This is needed for the initiation of the auction and the procurement process. Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to investigate the performance of the approximation. Simulation results show that the analytical method provides an acceptable approximation for the optimal target inventory level.     

基于Vague集的建设项目综合评标

把Vague集应用于建设项目评标,从正向、反向和不确定多个方面描述投标文件的信息,为招标人客观评价和选择投标人提供了更充分的依据,应用综合评价值对投标人进行排序,从而选出最优投标人,使评标工作更加趋于全面、快捷,实例说明该方法的有效性.