基于模糊博弈视角的企业联盟“双循环”合作对策研究

企业合作在“双循环”新发展格局下呈现出更多的模糊特征,能否形成稳定的模糊合作格局及持续合作的收益再分配策略成为合作联盟的关注点。将广义模糊超量博弈和模糊凸博弈及其广义解集应用到“双循环”新发展格局下企业联盟合作与收益再分配中,提出最大广义模糊超量博弈模型及其广义模糊谈判集,并基于最大广义模糊超量博弈均衡性的视角,对模糊凸博弈下广义模糊谈判集与核心的等价性质进行论证。研究结果不仅满足了“双循环”新发展格局下合作企业以部分资源参与合作的意愿,及企业联盟模糊凸合作博弈下再分配方案等价性证明需求,而且实现了保留部分收益用于联盟再发展的策略。     

Evaluating impacts of fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation actions on the livelihoods of small‐scale fishers on the Beijiang River,China

Inappropriate development and overexploitation have seriously degraded aquatic resources in China. Stakeholders identified three fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation scenarios for the Beijiang River: S1, increased fish restocking; S2, no fishing season and habitat conservation; and S3, strict pollution control. Potential impacts of these actions on the livelihoods of fishers were evaluated using applied economic modeling. Baseline costs and benefits came from logbooks from 30 fishers and a survey of 90 households in three villages. The financial net benefit for a household was US$1583 (￥11,160) annually, representing a 142% and 387% return on capital and operating costs, respectively. Larger catches associated with S1 and S2 generated a net benefit of US$1651 and US$1822, respectively. Strict pollution control resulting in higher catches (+20%) and lower operating costs (?20%) would increase the net benefit by 15.9% to US$1835 annually. Pollution control would benefit other resource users and is a prerequisite for ecological restoration. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Stringent pollution control measures are essential to conserve aquatic biodiversity and enhance the livelihoods of fishers but will require considerable public and private sector investment.
• Enhanced fish stocks in the Beijiang River could benefit poor livelihoods but may not be sufficient to lift households out of poverty, aged fishers require government assistance to diversify their livelihoods, access alternative urban employment, and survive with dignity.
• Adopting the economic modeling approach presented here could enable responsible authorities to simultaneously evaluate fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation options.
• Broader application of the approach presented here could help ensure small‐scale inland fisheries are managed sustainably and aquatic ecosystems are restored and protected by 2020, in line with Target 6 of the United Nations’ Convention on Biological Diversity Strategic Plan for Biodiversity.

     

Optimal assets allocation and benefit outgo policies of DC pension plan with compulsory conversion claims

In this paper, we study optimal asset allocation and benefit outgo policies of DC (defined contribution) pension plan. We extend He and Liang model (2013a,b) to describe dynamics of individual fund scale during distribution period. The fund scale is affected by investment return, benefit outgo and mortality credit. The management of the pension plan controls the asset allocation and benefit outgo policies to achieve the objective of pension members. The goal of the management is to minimize accumulated deviations between the actual benefit outgo and a pre-set target during the whole distribution period. The performance function (criterion) is the weighted average of the square and linear deviations to express more penalty on negative deviation than positive deviation. Using HJB (Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman) equations and variational inequality methods, the closed-forms of the optimal policies are derived. The counterintuitive effect of the optimal proportion allocated in the risky asset with respect to the fund scale is also derived, and the optimal benefit outgo has the form of the spread method. Moreover, we use Monte Carlo Methods (MCM) to analyze economic behaviors of the optimal asset allocation and benefit outgo policies.     

基于未确知测度理论的工业企业经济效益评价

介绍了工业企业经济效益评价的经济指标,建立了基于未确知测度理论的多属性综合评价方法.在确定各评价对象的属性权重时,采用熵值法这一客观性方法来确定.通过实例,将这种方法应用于具体的工业企业经济效益的评价,为评价企业经济效益提供了一种量化处理的方法,从而能够更直观、更合理地分析评价企业的经济效益状况.     

西部开发中能源配置模型的研究

开发西部丰富的能源资源,解决东部地区能源紧缺的矛盾,是东西部经济合作、优势互补、东西联动双赢战略研究的一项重要课题.在国家投资主体和市场经济条件下,以能源消费效益最大为目标,建立了基于边际效益均衡的能源空间配置优化模型;兼顾经济效益与环境效益的能源部门配置优化模型.结果显示,各地区、部门要获得更多的能源,就必须提高能源的使用效率,提高能源消费的边际效益,降低污染排放水平.     

Optimal threshold analysis of segmentation methods for identifying target customers

In CRM (Customer Relationship Management), the importance of a segmentation method for identifying good customers has been increasing. For evaluation of different segmentation methods, Accuracy often plays a key role. This indicator, however, cannot distinguish two types of errors. The purpose of this paper is to overcome this pitfall by introducing two different indicators: Recall and Precision. Assuming that a promotion is addressed exclusively to the selected target customers, the financial effectiveness of the underlying segmentation method is expressed as a function of Recall and Precision. An optimization problem is then formulated so as to maximize the financial measure by finding the optimal threshold level in terms of the severeness for estimating the target set. By introducing a functional form which represents correctness and mistakes about the target set, the unique optimal solution is derived explicitly. The proposed approach is validated by using real customer purchase data.     

一类动态规划的解法及其在Turbo码解码中的应用

研究一类多阶段动态规划问题,给出了求最优解的方法.将这种多阶段动态规划应用于Turbo译码中,不仅可以减少运算量,还可以避免传统的Turbo译码算法需要进行指数运算以及其随着迭代次数的增加容易出现的数据溢出问题,因此是一种十分有效的方法,是对系统工程理论应用领域的拓宽.     

基于标准差和平均差的权系数确定方法及其应用

本文以工业经济效益的综合评价为应用背景 ,提出了一种确定多指标决策权系数的新方法———标准差和平均差极大化方法。运用该方法进行多指标决策和评价 ,概念清楚、涵义明确 ,决策和评价结果准确、可信、不具有主观随意性     

斯特林制冷机通用化和系列化的技术经济效益分析

以实际数据分析了斯特林制冷机实行通用化、系列化所取得的和可以取得的技术、经济效益,阐明了在斯特林制冷机研制、生产中实施通用化、系列化的重要性。     

Pensions modelling

Valuable insights into the problem of how to fund defined benefitpension schemes can be obtained by analysis using the standardBlack–Scholes/Merton option pricing model, consideringthe pension fund finances jointly with those of the sponsoringcompany. The nature of the fund assets and liabilities is completelydifferent, and this lies behind current controversies aboutthe appropriate discount rate, valuation, financial accountingand preferential status for pension fund claimants in insolvency.