基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。     

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Muon Count in UHECR Extensive Air-Showers

The main goal of this work is to adapt a Physics problem to the Machine Learning (ML) domain and to compare several techniques to solve it. The problem consists of how to perform muon count from the signal registered by particle detectors which record a mix of electromagnetic and muonic signals. Finding a good solution could be a building block on future experiments. After proposing an approach to solve the problem, the experiments show a performance comparison of some popular ML models using two different hadronic models for the test data. The results show that the problem is suitable to be solved using ML as well as how critical the feature selection stage is regarding precision and model complexity.     

A volatolomic approach using cerumen as biofluid to diagnose bovine intoxication by Stryphnodendron rotundifolium

An innovative volatolomic approach employs the detection of biomarkers present in cerumen (earwax) to identify cattle intoxication by Stryphnodendron rotundifolium Mart., Fabaceae (popularly known as barbatimão). S. rotundifolium is a poisonous plant with the toxic compound undefined and widely distributed throughout the Brazilian territory. Cerumen samples from cattle of two local Brazilian breeds (‘Curraleiro Pé-Duro’ and ‘Pantaneiro’) were collected during an experimental intoxication protocol and analyzed using headspace (HS)/GC–MS followed by multivariate analysis (genetic algorithm for a partial least squares, cluster analysis, and classification and regression trees). A total of 106 volatile organic metabolites were identified in the cerumen samples of bovines. The intoxication by S. rotundifolium influenced the cerumen volatolomic profile of the bovines throughout the intoxication protocol. In this way, it was possible to detect biomarkers for cattle intoxication. Among the biomarkers, 2-octyldecanol and 9-tetradecen-1-ol were able to discriminate all samples between intoxicated and nonintoxicated bovines. The cattle intoxication diagnosis by S. rotundifolium was accomplished by applying the cerumen analysis using HS/GC–MS, in an easy, accurate, and noninvasive way. Thus, the proposed bioanalytical chromatography protocol is a useful tool in veterinary applications to determine this kind of intoxication.     

PN结物理特性的开放式测量实验方法研究

开放式、综合性量测实验的设计与应用,在巩固基础理论知识的同时,能够有效培养学生的动手实践能力、数据处理及分析能力,一定程度代表着大学物理实验课程的教学模式改革方向。以PN结物理特性的测量实验为例,基于通用型仪器与元器件的积木式组合,设计出简单、适用的实验电路;t=17.95℃时所采集的原始实验数据经三种模式回归分析,比较验证了PN结扩散电流与电压间遵循的玻尔兹曼分布律;计算出的玻尔兹曼常数与FD-PN-4测定仪的量测值相比,其结果说明了开放式测量实验方法的有效性。     

Incremental dynamic mode decomposition: A reduced-model learner operating at the low-data limit

The present work aims at proposing a new methodology for learning reduced models from a small amount of data. It is based on the fact that discrete models, or their transfer function counterparts, have a low rank and then they can be expressed very efficiently using few terms of a tensor decomposition. An efficient procedure is proposed as well as a way for extending it to nonlinear settings while keeping limited the impact of data noise. The proposed methodology is then validated by considering a nonlinear elastic problem and constructing the model relating tractions and displacements at the observation points.     

高光谱成像的土壤剖面水分含量反演及制图

传统土壤水分的获取方法仅可获得离散的土壤水分点位数据，难以获得剖面上精细且连续的水分含量分布图。研究了野外条件下利用近红外高光谱（882～1 709 nm）成像反演剖面土壤水分含量（SMC），并实现精细制图的可行性。研究剖面位于江苏省东台市，我们利用近红外高光谱成像仪对剖面进行了5天原位连续观测，共采集了280个土样用于烘干法测定SMC。原始高光谱图像经数字量化值（DN）校正、黑白校正、拼接、几何校正、剪切和掩膜等一系列预处理后，提取各采样点的平均光谱反射率。提取光谱（Raw）经吸光度[LOG₁₀(1/R)]，Savitzky-Golay平滑（SG）、一阶微分（FD）、二阶微分（SD）、多元散射校正（MSC）和标准正态变量（SNV）转换后，采用偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）和最小二乘支持向量机（LS-SVM）方法建立SMC预测模型，并对比分析不同光谱预处理方法与建模方法组合条件下SMC的预测精度。结果表明，光谱反射率随SMC增加逐渐降低，不同光谱预处理方法的预测精度有所差异，除MSC方法外，同一光谱预处理方法的LS-SVM模型预测精度均高于PLSR模型，并且基于LOG₁₀(1/R)光谱的LS-SVM模型对SMC预测精度最高，其建模集的决定系数（R2_c）和均方根误差（RMSE_c）分别为0.96和0.65%，预测集的决定系数（R2_p）、均方根误差（RMSE_p）和相对分析误差（RPD_p）分别为0.88，1.05%和2.88。利用最优模型进行剖面SMC的高空间分辨率精细制图，通过比较SMC反演图中提取的预测值与实测值关系发现预测精度较高（R2: 0.85～0.95, RMSE: 0.94%～1.02%），且两者在剖面中的变化趋势基本一致，说明SMC反演图不仅能很好地反映出土壤水分在整个剖面中毫米级的含量分布信息，也可反映出同一位置处不同天数间的含量差异。因此，利用近红外高光谱成像结合优化的预测模型，能够实现土壤剖面SMC的定量预测及精细制图，有助于快速、有效监测田间剖面土壤水分状况。     

Classical Backfitting for Smooth-Backfitting Additive Models

Smooth backfitting has been shown to have better theoretical properties than classical backfitting for fitting additive models based on local linear regression. In this article, we show that the smooth backfitting procedure in the local linear case can be alternatively performed as a classical backfitting procedure with a different type of smoother matrices. These smoother matrices are symmetric and shrinking and some established results in the literature are readily applicable. The connections allow the smooth backfitting algorithm to be implemented in a much simplified way, give new insights on the differences between the two approaches in the literature, and provide an extension to local polynomial regression. The connections also give rise to a new estimator at data points. Asymptotic properties of general local polynomial smooth backfitting estimates are investigated, allowing for different orders of local polynomials and different bandwidths. Cases of oracle efficiency are discussed. Computer-generated simulations are conducted to demonstrate finite sample behaviors of the methodology and a real data example is given for illustration. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

基于ABC-SV R算法的拉曼光谱检测混合油脂肪酸含量

提出了一种基于激光拉曼光谱和人工蜂群智能优化支持向量回归机(ABC-SVR)算法的快速定量检测三组分混和油中3种脂肪酸含量的方法。该方法针对光谱数据信息与样本之间非线性、高维度的关系，建立了预测精度及建模效率均高于同类对比算法的数学模型，同时避免了气相色谱法、液相色谱法等对混合油脂肪酸含量的检测方式，根据纯种油中3种脂肪酸含量的国际标准，由油品配置体积得到脂肪酸质量，有效降低了检测成本与实验复杂程度，提高了检测工作的实用价值。首先根据一定梯度配置66组混合油检测样品，使用便携式拉曼光谱仪采集样本的拉曼光谱信息，扣除背景噪声；观察多组样本的拉曼光谱图可知，由于官能团浓度的差异，食用油的拉曼特征峰位移基本相同，特征峰的峰值明显不同，因此基于特征峰信息可以区分食用调和油的不同混合物；其次对拉曼光谱做背景扣除、光谱平滑、最大值谱线归一化三步预处理，以降低实验中不可控的外界因素及背景荧光的影响，准确提取光谱特征峰强度信息；然后根据纯种油中3种脂肪酸的国际标准含量，结合国家食品法典委员会标准CODEX STAN210-1999《指定的植物油法典标准》中规定的纯种油密度中值，由油品体积得到脂肪酸质量数；随机选取56组样本数据作为训练集，剩余10组样本数据作为预测集；以训练集光谱特征峰强度和脂肪酸质量分别作为回归模型的输入及输出值，建立SVR和PSO-SVR，ABC-SVR三种混合优化算法对比的定量分析模型，对测试集的3种脂肪酸含量分别进行预测；最后通过均方误差(MSE)、相关系数(r)及建模时间(Elapsed time)分别进行对比，建立数据表对模型精准度进行检验。实验结果表明，通过ABC-SVR定量分析模型效果最佳，3种脂肪酸含量预测值与真实值的均方差分别为0.88×10-4，16×10-4和8×10-4，均低于0.002；相关系数分别为93.43%，99.65%和99.43%，均高于93%；预测时间(Elapsed time)分别为1.26，2.42和2.14 s。因此，所提出的检测方法，具备较高的精确度、较快的建模时间，且在理论上的类似条件下可适用于其他样品检测工作，可为振动光谱学对食用油掺伪分析的进一步工作提供可行的理论依据。     

基于NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据的山西省GDP空间化模拟

选取山西省为研究对象，以美国国家极轨合作仪件-可见红外成像辐射计套件（NPP-VIIRS）夜间灯光数据、GDP统计数据等为数据源，构建GDP空间化拟合模型，建立山西省GDP密度图，据此研究山西省经济的空间差异性。通过对NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据的空间化处理，提取灯光指数，并将其与GDP进行回归拟合，建立最佳回归模型，得到GDP密度拟合图；利用县级GDP数据进行线性纠正，从而提高GDP的模拟精度。结果表明：（1）NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据与GDP的相关性较高，可用于山西省GDP模拟；（2）与GDP分区建模相比，GDP整体建模的精度更高；（3）山西省GDP的空间分布整体呈由城市中心逐渐向周边辐射的特点，构成GDP过渡带。