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1.
稻农对不同农业技术的采用能够促进其推广应用。基于湖北五市320户稻农的调研数据,利用二元Probit模型和ISM模型,分别探讨了稻农采用新品种技术、病虫害防治技术、机械化技术的影响因素及其层次结构。研究结果表明:是否参加农业保险、国家粮食补贴金额、水稻种植规模、家庭人均年收入、种粮积极性、家庭人口数量显著影响稻农采用新品种技术。其中,种粮积极性和家庭人口数量是深层根源因素;水稻种植规模、对粮补政策态度、国家粮食补贴金额、年龄、家庭人口数量、家庭人均年收入显著影响其病虫害技术采用。其中,年龄、家庭人口数量和家庭人均年收入是深层根源因素;国家粮食补贴金额、水稻种植规模、性别、健康状况、农业保险、是否兼业显著影响其机械化技术采用。其中,性别、健康状况、是否兼业和农业保险是深层根源因素。  相似文献
2.
基于信息不对称考量的我国上市公司融资优序及探因   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
资本结构啄序理论认为,为了减少信息不对称导致的股权价值低估所引起的投资不足等问题,公司的融资优序应为内部融资—债务融资—股权融资。基于有序probit模型和似然比检验的实证结果表明,我国上市公司的融资优序表现为内部融资-股权融资-债务融资,资本成本在这种融资优序中所起的作用大于信息不对称的不利影响。  相似文献
3.
中国优质企业环境会计信息披露决策研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
环境保护是我国社会与经济能否实现可持续发展的关键,而环境保护必须通过企业行为得到落实,因此分析企业环境保护的积极性是经济理论和实践的迫切命题.选取代表我国优质企业的上市公司,利用Probit模型对它们环境信息披露的现状和披露的积极性进行分析研究,得出了能够对上市公司的环境会计信息披露倾向构成显著性影响的三个主要因素,它们为是否获得ISO14000环境管理体系认证、主营业务利润增长率的高低和国有股在该公司资本结构中所占比例.所研究的是国内首个通过计量方法分析企业环境会计信息披露倾向的影响因素的论文,具有较大的理论指导意义.  相似文献
4.
We present a unified semiparametric Bayesian approach based on Markov random field priors for analyzing the dependence of multicategorical response variables on time, space and further covariates. The general model extends dynamic, or state space, models for categorical time series and longitudinal data by including spatial effects as well as nonlinear effects of metrical covariates in flexible semiparametric form. Trend and seasonal components, different types of covariates and spatial effects are all treated within the same general framework by assigning appropriate priors with different forms and degrees of smoothness. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses MCMC techniques for posterior analysis. The approach in this paper is based on latent semiparametric utility models and is particularly useful for probit models. The methods are illustrated by applications to unemployment data and a forest damage survey.  相似文献
5.
The value of the customer has been widely recognized in terms of financial planning and efficient resource allocation including the financial service industry. Previous studies have shown that directly observable information can be used in order to make reasonable predictions of customer attrition probabilities. However, these studies do not take full account of customer behavior information. In this paper, we demonstrate that efficient use of information can add value to financial services industry and improve the prediction of customer attrition. To achieve this, we apply an orthogonal polynomial approximation analysis to derive unobservable information, which is then used as explanatory variables in a probit–hazard rate model. Our results show that derived information can help our understanding of customer attrition behavior and give better predictions. We conclude that both researchers and the financial service industry should gather and use derived financial information in addition to directly observable information.  相似文献
6.
This paper looks at the development of dynamic hedging strategies for typical pension plan liabilities using longevity-linked hedging instruments. Progress in this area has been hindered by the lack of closed-form formulae for the valuation of mortality-linked liabilities and assets, and the consequent requirement for simulations within simulations. We propose the use of the probit function along with a Taylor expansion to approximate longevity-contingent values. This makes it possible to develop and implement computationally efficient, discrete-time delta hedging strategies using q-forwards as hedging instruments.The methods are tested using the model proposed by Cairns et al. (2006a) (CBD). We find that the probit approximations are generally very accurate, and that the discrete-time hedging strategy is very effective at reducing risk.  相似文献
7.
This paper presents a procedure that incorporates scatter search and threshold accepting to find the maximum likelihood estimates for the multinomial probit (MNP) model. Scatter search, widely used in optimization-related studies, is a type of evolutionary algorithm that uses a small set of solutions as the selection pool for mating and generating new solutions to search for a globally optimal solution. Threshold accepting is applied to the scatter search to improve computational efficiency while maintaining the same level of solution quality. A set of numerical experiments, based on synthetic data sets with known model specifications and error structures, were conducted to test the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed framework. The results indicated that the proposed procedure enhanced performance in terms of likelihood function value and computational efficiency for MNP model estimation as compared to the original scatter search framework.  相似文献
8.
Using data from China’s individual health-insurance market, we study the problem of information asymmetry. Our preliminary results appear to contradict standard-model predictions, showing that higher-risk buyers are more likely to purchase “additional” insurance than lower-risk buyers, but that they also tend to purchase lower limits of “basic” insurance coverage. We therefore develop a theoretical model to capture the effects of buyers’ wealth levels and loss amounts, and show empirically that these effects, in the context of asymmetric information, lead to the coexistence of adverse selection and advantageous selection in China’s health-insurance market.  相似文献
9.
本文将多项Probit模型推广到更一般的形式, 研究了推广的多项Probit模型的逆回归性质,给出了回归系数的逆回归估计方法, 并证明了在满足一些条件时估计是渐近正态的. 模拟表明逆回归估计方法有良好的表现.  相似文献
10.
The computation of marginal posterior density in Bayesian analysis is essential in that it can provide complete information about parameters of interest. Furthermore, the marginal posterior density can be used for computing Bayes factors, posterior model probabilities, and diagnostic measures. The conditional marginal density estimator (CMDE) is theoretically the best for marginal density estimation but requires the closed-form expression of the conditional posterior density, which is often not available in many applications. We develop the partition weighted marginal density estimator (PWMDE) to realize the CMDE. This unbiased estimator requires only a single Markov chain Monte Carlo output from the joint posterior distribution and the known unnormalized posterior density. The theoretical properties and various applications of the PWMDE are examined in detail. The PWMDE method is also extended to the estimation of conditional posterior densities. We carry out simulation studies to investigate the empirical performance of the PWMDE and further demonstrate the desirable features of the proposed method with two real data sets from a study of dissociative identity disorder patients and a prostate cancer study, respectively. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.  相似文献
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