Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

Fractional Derivatives Applied to Phase-Space Reconstructions

The concept and application of phase-space reconstructions are reviewed. Fractional derivatives are then proposed for the purpose of reconstructing dynamics from a single observed time history. A procedure is presented in which the fractional derivatives of time series data are obtained in the frequency domain. The method is applied to the Lorenz system. The ability of the method to unfold the data is assessed by the method of global false nearest neighbors. The reconstructed data is used to compute recurrences and correlation dimensions. The reconstruction is compared to the commonly used method of delays in order to assess the choice of reconstruction parameters, and also the quality of results.     

Special Theory of Relativity in Electrodynamics

A method of teaching of one of the divisions of electrodynamics devoted to relativity theory is suggested. The presentation is based on the four-dimensional formalism, which allows a number of fundamental physical phenomena to be considered from a unified position. The content is in full conformity with the approved standard programs for students and postgraduates of radio physical and radio technical specialities of universities. The methods can be useful to the teachers, scientific workers, and engineers concerned with other directions and specialities.     

Justification of the Shallow-Water Limit for a Rigid-Lid Flow with Bottom Topography

The so-called lake equations arise as the shallow-water limit of the rigid-lid equations—three-dimensional Euler equations with a rigid-lid upper boundary condition—in a horizontally periodic basin with bottom topography. We prove an a priori estimate in the Sobolev space H ^m for m≥ 3 which shows that a solution to the rigid-lid equations can be approximated by a solution of the lake equations for an interval of time which can be estimated in terms of the initial deviation from a columnar configuration and the magnitude of the initial data in H ^m , the gradient of the bottom topography in H ^m+1 , and the aspect ratio of the basin. In particular, any solution to the lake equations remains close to some solution of the rigid-lid equations for an interval of time that can be made arbitrarily large by choosing the aspect ratio of the basin small. Received 10 October 1996 and accepted 15 May 1997     

Silver nitrate-acetonitrile and iodine-benzene complexes as studied by NMR in thermotropic liquid crystals

Silver nitrate-acetonitrile and π iodine-benzene complexes in thermotropic liquid crystals have been studied by ¹H, ²H, and ¹³C NMR spectroscopy and by optical microscopy. Evidence for at least two silver complexes in each liquid crystal is presented.     

Needle Variations and Almost Lower Semicontinuous Differential Inclusions

It is shown that the construction of needle variations can be carried out for almost lower semicontinuous differential inclusions rather than for the case of ordinary single-valued continuously differentiable vector fields usually considered in the literature. The construction leads to needle variations whose flows are in general set-valued but still have good differentiability properties. The variations are constructed by using single-valued selections that are not necessarily continuous with respect to the state variable, but have instead a much weaker 'integral continuity' property, somewhat more general that the 'directional continuity' considered in previous work by A. Cambini and S. Querci, A. Pucci, and A. Bressan. The existence of many such selections is proved by slightly adapting an argument due to Bressan, extending it from the lower semicontinuous to the almost lower semicontinuous case, and strengthening it to yield not only directional continuity at all points but also full continuity at a specified point.     

Comparisons of pharynx, source, formant, and pressure characteristics in operatic and musical theatre singing

Belting, a vocal technique typically cultivated in musical theatre singing, differs timbrally from operatic singing in many interesting respects. The underlying phonatory differences have not been previously investigated in detail. Yet, belting is frequently associated with disturbances of voice function. Articulatory and phonatory characteristics are investigated in a female subject who is a professional singer (co-author JL) trained in both the operatic and belting styles and in an intermediate vocal technique (“mixed”). This article presents data obtained from this subject by video-fiberoptic observation of the pharynx, inverse filtering of airflow, and measurement of subglottal pressure. The results reveal that belting was characterized by very high subglottal pressures and sound levels, and apparently also by a comparatively high degree of glottal adduction. Comparisons with other investigations of related aspects of belting and operatic singing support the assumption that the data obtained from our subject are representative for these vocal techniques.     

Combined-modality treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia with botulinum toxin and voice therapy

A combined-modality treatment program consisting of botulinum toxin injection (Botox) and voice therapy was used to treat 17 subjects diagnosed with adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADD SD). Ten subjects with ADD SD served as the control and were given Botox only. Voice therapy after Botox injection was directed toward reducing the hyperfunctional vocal behaviors, primarily glottal overpressure at voice onset and anterior-posterior squeezing. The results indicated that subjects who underwent combined-modality treatment maintained significantly higher mean airflow rates for significantly longer periods. Moreover, there was a carryover effect in these patients when they received Botox only. Adductor spasmodic dysphonia is treated most effectively when intrinsic laryngeal muscle spasms are reduced or eliminated by Botox injection and extrinsic hyperfunctional vocal behaviors are treated with voice therapy