Salesforce contracting under model uncertainty

This paper considers a firm's salesforce contracting problem under model uncertainty. Based on the notion of multiplier preferences, we capture model uncertainty and explicitly characterize the structure of the optimal contract. Our findings provide guidelines on the design of salesforce compensation contracts in practical situations.     

基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。     

Sharper uncertainty principles associated with Lp-norm

Motivated by the well-established phase derivative embedded technique, this study devotes to sharper uncertainty principles related to the L^p-norm type of uncertainty product, giving rise to two kinds of uncertainty inequalities that improve the classical result through providing tighter lower bounds. The conditions that truly reach these better estimates are obtained. Examples and simulations are carried out to verify the correctness of the derived results, and finally, possible applications in time-frequency analysis are also given.     

Measurement Uncertainty and Its Connection to Quantum Coherence in an Inertial Unruh–DeWitt Detector

The dynamic characteristics of measured uncertainty and quantum coherence are explored for an inertial Unruh–DeWitt detector model in an expanding de Sitter space. Using the entropic uncertainty relation, the uncertainty of interest is correlated with the evolving time t, the energy level spacing δ, and the Hubble parameter H. The investigation shows that, for short time, a strong energy level spacing and small Hubble parameter can result in a relatively small uncertainty. The evolution of quantum coherence versus the evolving time and Hubble parameter, which varies almost inversely to that of the uncertainty, is then discussed, and the relationship between uncertainty and the coherence is explicitly derived. With respect to the l₁ norm of coherence, it is found that the environment for the quantum system considered possesses a strong non-Markovian property. The dynamic behavior of coherence non-monotonously decreases with the growth of evolving time. The dynamic features of uncertainty and coherence in the expanding space with those in flat space are also compared. Furthermore, quantum weak measurement is utilized to effectively reduce the magnitude of uncertainty, which offers realistic and important support for quantum precision measurements during the undertaking of quantum tasks.     

水力劈裂问题的态型近场动力学建模

将态型近场动力学理论引入水力劈裂问题的模拟。构建了能反映岩土类材料准脆性断裂特征的态型近场动力学本构模型,并在物质点间相互作用力模型中加入等效水压力项,以实现在新生裂纹面上跟踪施加水压力。同时,考虑裂纹面间的接触,引入物质点间的短程排斥力作用,并设计了相应的接触算法。通过自编程序将模型和算法应用于含初始裂纹、不含初始裂纹以及含坝基软弱结构面的混凝土重力坝在高水头作用下的水力劈裂过程模拟,并与扩展有限元等模拟结果对比,验证了本文模型和算法的可行性和准确性。     

A safe minimum standard,the elasticity of substitution,and the cleanup of the Ganges in Varanasi

Despite repeated calls for a thorough cleanup of water pollution in the Ganges river, there are only two papers in the social sciences by Batabyal and Beladi (2017, 2019) that have shed theoretical light on this cleanup problem and its connection to the sustainability of tourism in Varanasi. Hence, we extend the above‐mentioned analyses and focus on two specific questions. First, we introduce the notion of a safe minimum standard (SMS) into the study and show how to analyze a probabilistic model of the Ganges cleanup problem when the SMS is accounted for. Second, for a representative citizen of Varanasi, we study how the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution between a composite consumption good and water quality in the Ganges—modeled by the SMS—affects the tradeoff between consumption and water quality maintenance.     

Back to the future: A retrospective assessment of model‐based scenarios for the management of the shrimp fishery in French Guiana facing global change

While the number of models dedicated to predicting the consequences of alternative resource management strategies has increased, instances in which authors look back at past predictions to learn from discrepancies between these and observed developments are scarce. In the past decades, the French Guiana shrimp fishery has experienced shrimp market globalization and decreasing levels of shrimp recruitment due to environmental changes. In 2006, a bio‐economic model of this fishery was developed to simulate its possible responses to economic and environmental scenarios up to 2016. Here, we compare here these predictions to the observed trajectories. While the number of active vessels corresponds to that which was predicted, the estimated shrimp stock does not. Important driving factors had not been anticipated, including a general strike, natural disasters, and the end of the global financial crisis. These results show the importance of participative approaches involving stakeholders in the co‐construction and shared representation of scenarios. Recommendations for resource managers

• Effective fisheries resources management and a fortiori, the capacity of the fisheries to adapt to global change, requires understanding of both ecological and economics dynamics.
• The temporal trajectory of the trawling shrimp fisheries has been well monitored, and the decline of both stock and fleet is understood regarding ecological and economic changes: Changes in the environmental conditions of shrimp recruitment, and oil price increase and selling price decrease.
• However, our bio‐economic modeling work showed that, even with a good understanding of the dynamics explaining past trajectories, unpredictable events (strike, natural disasters…) have acted as other key driving factors altering the capacity of the model to represent possible futures.
• These results led us to recommend a better integration of the expertise of social and political scientists in developing models of bio‐economic systems to increase the quality of scenario predictions, and to argue for more participative approaches involving the stakeholders.

     

Infinite propagation speed of a weakly dissipative modified two-component Dullin–Gottwald–Holm system

We consider the infinite propagation speed of a weakly dissipative modified two-component Dullin–Gottwald–Holm (mDGH2) system. The infinite propagation speed is derived for the corresponding solution with compactly supported initial data that does not have compact support any longer in its lifespan.     

Analysis of risk bounds in partially specified additive factor models

The study of worst case scenarios for risk measures (e.g. the Value at Risk) when the underlying risk vector (or portfolio of risks) is not completely specified is a central topic in the literature on robust risk measurement. In this paper we discuss partially specified factor models as introduced in Bernard et al. (2017) in more detail for the class of additive factor models which admit more explicit results. These results allow to describe in more detail the reduction of risk bounds obtainable by this method in dependence on the degree of positive resp. negative dependence induced by the systematic risk factors. The insight may help in applications of this reduction method to get a better qualitative impression on the range of influence of the partially specified factor structure.     

Welfare Cost of Model Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy

This paper extends the canonical small open-economy real-business-cycle model, when considering model uncertainty. Domestic households have multiplier preferences, which leads them to take robust decisions in response to possible model misspecification for the economy’s aggregate productivity. Using perturbation methods, the paper extends the literature on real business cycle models by deriving a closed-form solution for the combined welfare effect of the two sources of uncertainty, namely risk and model uncertainty. While classical risk has an ambiguous effect on welfare, the addition of model uncertainty is unambiguously welfare-deteriorating. Hence, the overall effect of uncertainty on welfare is ambiguous, depending on consumers preferences and model parameters. The paper provides numerical results for the welfare effects of uncertainty measured by units of consumption equivalence. At moderate (high) levels of risk aversion, the effect of risk on household welfare is positive (negative). The addition of model uncertainty—for all levels of concern about model uncertainty and most risk aversion values—turns the overall effect of uncertainty on household welfare negative. It is important to remark that the analytical decomposition and combination of the effects of the two types of uncertainty considered here and the resulting ambiguous effect on overall welfare have not been derived in the previous literature on small open economies.