Modeling and analysis of system reliability using phase‐type distribution closure properties

Phase‐type distribution closure properties are utilized to devise algorithms for generating reliability functions of systems with basic structures. These structures include series, parallel, K‐out‐of‐N, and standby structures with perfect/imperfect switch. The algorithms form a method for system reliability modeling and analysis based on the relationship between the system lifetime and component lifetimes for general structures. The proposed method is suitable for functional system reliability analysis, which can produce reliability functions of systems with independent components instead of only system reliability values. Once the system reliability function is obtained, other reliability measures such as the system's hazard function and mean time to failure can be obtained efficiently using only matrix algebra. Dimensional and numerical comparisons with computerized symbolic processing are also presented to show the superiority of the proposed method.     

Expected reliability of communication protocols

We consider the problem of sending a message from a sender $s$ to a receiver $r$ through an unreliable network by specifying in a protocol what each vertex is supposed to do if it receives the message from one of its neighbors. A protocol for routing a message in such a graph is finite if it never floods $r$ with an infinite number of copies of the message. The expected reliability of a given protocol is the probability that a message sent from $s$ reaches $r$ when the edges of the network fail independently with probability $1?p$.We discuss, for given networks, the properties of finite protocols with maximum expected reliability in the case when $p$ is close to 0 or 1, and we describe networks for which no one protocol is optimal for all values of $p$. In general, finding an optimal protocol for a given network and fixed probability is challenging and many open problems remain.     

一类改进最大熵方法的可调参数分析

在结构可靠性分析中,引入含可调参数的转换函数能对传统的最大熵方法进行改进,获得更高的失效概率预测精度。但是,此可调参数的最佳取值很难确定。针对这一问题,引入概率守恒方程,从功能函数转换前后所得概率密度函数出发,建立其最大熵值的变化关系,给出转换前后最大熵值之差的理论形式。通过对三种典型单调非线性转换函数开展算例研究,发现功能函数转换前后的最大熵值之差与转换函数的最佳可调参数值有关。改变可调参数值驱使最大熵值之差变化的同时,改进最大熵方法能遍历到更好的失效概率估计值。     

Stochastic modeling of quality of systems operating in a heterogeneous environment

We consider systems that are subject to an external mixed Poisson shock process. Each shock can result in a failure of a system with a given probability and is survived with the complementary probability. Each shock additionally decreases the quality function that describes the performance of a system, thus forming the corresponding stochastic process. Expectations (unconditional and conditional on survival) and relevant variability characteristics for the stochastic quality function are derived. Some monotonicity properties of the conditional quality function are investigated and the future values of this function are derived.     

An interview with Sam C. Saunders

Sam C. Saunders, the son of Elizabeth Cundiff and Winston E. Saunders, was born in Richland, OR, on February 24, 1931. The family moved to La Grande, OR, in 1944, where Sam completed high school and two years at Eastern Oregon College. He then received the BSc degree in Mathematics from the University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, in 1952, and he attended the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, receiving a PhD degree under Z. W. Birnbaum. After graduating, he accepted employment at the Boeing Company in its Mathematical Services Unit and, in 1972, a position as a Full Professor at Washington State University, Pullman, WA, from which he retired in 1996.     

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??The reliability of gas fire-extinguishing system is difficult to calculate because of the small sample size, so this paper uses Bayesian method to calculate reliability of the gaseous fire-extinguishing system. The method process includes conversion of multi-source prior information, information fusion, information check, weight calculation and reliability calculation of unit and system. The method properly solves the problem of reliability calculation by combining the field sample information with multi-source prior information.     

Computational analysis for the determination of deleterious nsSNPs in human MTHFD1 gene

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are the most common genetic polymorphisms and play a major role in many inherited diseases. Methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase 1 (MTHFD1) is one of the enzymes involved in folate metabolism. In the present study, the functional and structural consequences of nsSNPs of human MTHFD1 gene was analyzed using various computational tools like SIFT, PolyPhen2, PANTHER, PROVEAN, SNAP2, nsSNPAnalyzer, PhD-SNP, SNPs&GO, I-Mutant, MuPro, ConSurf, InterPro, NCBI Conserved Domain Search tool, ModPred, SPARKS-X, RAMPAGE, FT Site and PyMol. Out of 327 nsSNPs form human MTHFD1 gene, total 45 SNPs were predicted as functionally most significant SNPs, among which 17 were highly conserved and functional, 17 were highly conserved and structural residues. Among 45 most significant SNPs, 15 were predicted to be involved in post translational modifications. The p.Gly165Arg may interfere in homodimer interface formation. The p.Asn439Lys and p.Asp445Asn may interfere in binding interactions of MTHFD1 protein with cesium cation and potassium. The two SNPs (p.Asp562Gly and p.Gly637Cys) might interfere in interactions of MTHFD1 with ligand.     

数学模型在高校领军人才评审中的应用

教育评估的可靠性决定了评估结果的可信性,影响着教育评估的声誉和发展.结合高校领军人才评审探讨了数学可靠性模型在教育评估中的应用,通过建立数学可靠性模型,计算评审系统的可靠性,并结合可靠性计算结果分析了影响评审系统可靠性的因素.     

考虑时滞的框架结构控制可靠性研究

提出了一种适合于确定框架结构可靠性计算方法．利用模态变换，把系统变为模态独立的振动方程，根据Field提出的假设，先定义阈值，假设控制后系统响应对阚值的穿阚率服从泊松分布，然后根据各模态的控制结果确定相应的可靠性．最后根据Veneziano提出的方法给出系统的可靠性。本文提出针对框架重点部位的控制输出来确定系统可靠性概念。考虑到实际情况，在控制方法选择针对系统不确定性具有较好控制效果的广义预测控制并考虑时滞影响。本文最后给出了计算实例。