水电站坝的砂层地基地震液化可靠度研究

对四川地区江河上数座水电站坝基砂层的26组动力三轴试验资料进行了统计分析,基于动剪应力比法的液化判别方法推导了的地震液化的极限状态方程,使用蒙特卡洛随机抽样的方法计算了砂层液化的失效概率,并对某水电站的厂房地基砂层的液化可靠度进行了计算分析。研究表明,统计按粉砂样总体和中细砂样总体划分较为合理;砂层的动剪应力比可采用正态分布;电站砂层地基地震液化的最危险工况为,闸坝盖重加稳定的向上渗流及遭遇Ⅶ度地震荷载,为高液化风险,其液化概率随埋深加大而增大,最危险部位为砂层底板,对坝基砂层应进行抗液化处理。     

On the effects of non-linear elements in the reliability-based optimal design of stochastic dynamical systems

The aim of the present paper is to study the effects of non-linear devices on the reliability-based optimal design of structural systems subject to stochastic excitation. One-dimensional hysteretic devices are used for modelling the non-linear system behavior while non-stationary filtered white noise processes are utilized to represent the stochastic excitation. The reliability-based optimization problem is formulated as the minimization of the expected cost of the structure for a specified failure probability. Failure is assumed to occur when any one of the output states of interest exceeds in magnitude some specified threshold level within a given time duration. Failure probabilities are approximated locally in terms of the design variables during the optimization process in a parallel computing environment. The approximations are based on a local interpolation scheme and on an efficient simulation technique. Specifically, a subset simulation scheme is adopted and integrated into the proposed optimization process. The local approximations are then used to define a series of explicit approximate optimization problems. A sensitivity analysis is performed at the final design in order to evaluate its robustness with respect to design and system parameters. Numerical examples are presented in order to illustrate the effects of hysteretic devices on the design of two structural systems subject to earthquake excitation. The obtained results indicate that the non-linear devices have a significant effect on the reliability and global performance of the structural systems.     

A model of longitudinal dispersion in non–homogeneous porous media

This paper is concerned with a model of the longitudinal dispersion of a set of tagged particles in a flow through nonhomogeneous stratified porous media. The model is a particular homogeneous Markov jump process, the successive states visited forming a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The passage time of alevel x of this Markov process is an additive stochastic process.This property is used to evaluate the general form of the longitudinal concentration function of the tagged particles in the flow.     

Reliability analysis of a single warm-standby system subject to repairable and nonrepairable failures

An n-unit system provisioned with a single warm standby is investigated. The individual units are subject to repairable failures, while the entire system is subject to a nonrepairable failure at some finite but random time in the future. System performance measures for systems observed over a time interval of random duration are introduced. Two models to compute these system performance measures, one employing a policy of block replacement, and the other without a block replacement policy, are developed. Distributional assumptions involving distributions of phase type introduce matrix Laplace transformations into the calculations of the performance measures. It is shown that these measures are easily carried out on a laptop computer using Microsoft Excel. A simple economic model is used to illustrate how the performance measures may be used to determine optimal economic design specifications for the warm standby.     

Reliability assessment on interfacial failure of thermal barrier coatings

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime owing to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability assessment method is proposed based on failure probability analysis. First, a limit state equa-tion is established to demarcate the boundary between failure and safe regions, and then the failure probability is calculated by the integration of a probability density function in the failure area according to the first-or second-order moment. It is shown that the parameters related to interfacial failure follow a Weibull distribution in two types of TBC. The inter-facial failure of TBCs is significantly affected by the thermal mismatch of material properties and the temperature drop in service.     

Análise da confiabilidade de estruturas de concreto armado com uma metodologia para inclusão de efeitos estocásticos de propriedades dos materiais

In this paper, special emphasis is given to the inclusion of uncertainties in the evaluation of structural behaviour aiming at a better representation of the system characteristics and the quantification of the importance of these uncertainties in the project. It deals with the structural reliability analysis problem accounting the effect of spatial variability of material properties. To this end it is proposed a finite element model to represent the behaviour of reinforced concrete for short and long-term loads, which includes the main features observed in this material. It was developed a model for the generation of multidimensional non-Gaussian stochastic fields for the material properties that is independent of the finite element mesh. First, an example of a two-dimensional non-Gaussian stochastic field generation in a square steel plate is presented. Latter, the reliability analysis is performed to a limit state function based on prescribed values of mid-span displacements on a simply-supported reinforced beam. Finally, the influence of long-term effects on the reliability of a reinforced concrete beam is studied considering the effect of steel reinforcement corrosion.     

Optimum step-stress accelerated degradation test for Wiener degradation process under constraints

To assess a product's reliability for subsequent managerial decisions such as designing an extended warranty policy and developing a maintenance schedule, Accelerated Degradation Test (ADT) has been used to obtain reliability information in a timely manner. In particular, Step-Stress ADT (SSADT) is one of the most commonly used stress loadings for shortening test duration and reducing the required sample size. Although it was demonstrated in many previous studies that the optimum SSADT plan is actually a simple SSADT plan using only two stress levels, most of these results were obtained numerically on a case-by-case basis. In this paper, we formally prove that, under the Wiener degradation model with a drift parameter being a linear function of the (transformed) stress level, a multi-level SSADT plan will degenerate to a simple SSADT plan under many commonly used optimization criteria and some practical constraints. We also show that, under our model assumptions, any SSADT plan with more than two distinct stress levels cannot be optimal. These results are useful for searching for an optimum SSADT plan, since one needs to focus only on simple SSADTs. A numerical example is presented to compare the efficiency of the proposed optimum simple SSADT plans and a SSADT plan proposed by a previous study. In addition, a simulation study is conducted for investigating the efficiency of the proposed SSADT plans when the sample size is small.     

基于光谱分析的重载车辆变速箱可靠性评估方法研究

润滑油光谱分析是变速箱磨损状态监测的重要手段。以某重载车辆变速箱台架试验中润滑油原子发射光谱分析得到的元素成分含量检测数据为基础,通过相关性分析和磨损机理分析确定了能够反映整机磨损状态和失效特点的金属元素,并对补油、换油后的光谱检测数据进行了修正,将变速箱试验过程中特征金属元素的含量随试验时间的变化规律表示为线性函数的形式。然后,综合考虑检测数据的时序规律与离散性,利用不同时刻光谱检测数据的正态分布均值和标准差进行变速箱可靠性评估,进一步讨论了失效阈值对可靠性评估结果的影响。研究表明,重载车辆变速箱润滑油中的Cu元素浓度与其他金属元素浓度的相关性较高、绝对值较大,既能够反映变速箱整体磨损状态,又便于检测,利用多个试验样本的润滑油Cu元素浓度光谱检测时序数据,可以对重载车辆变速箱进行可靠性评估;若失效阈值取定值,则失效阈值越大,同一时刻变速箱的可靠度越高;若失效阈值取随机分布,则失效阈值的离散度越大,可靠度随时间延长而降低的趋势越缓慢。当可靠度R大于0.9时,失效阈值的均值对可靠性评估结果的影响十分显著,同一时刻变速箱的可靠度随失效阈值标准差的增大而降低。将光谱分析与概率统计学结合进行变速箱可靠性评估方法研究,扩展了光谱分析技术的应用范围,具有创新性。     

基于LabVIEW的水下航行器 航行控制系统通信模块设计

为了保证水下航行器的航行安全,航行控制系统内部通信和航行系统与综合控制台之间的通信的性能需要具有较高的实时性和可靠性。本文基于以太网搭建系统,详细地介绍了系统通信的组成和传输数据的类型,结合系统要求以及TCP/IP、UDP通信协议的特点,选取合适的协议和数据传递方式;对于出现通信堵塞和数据包丢失以及链路不稳定情况,采取自动重连和数据自动重发机制;并采用图形化软件LabVIEW的封装函数实现数据的收发和保存,借助LabVIEW和C语言混合编程实现数据的高效处理;在实验室搭建半实物仿真平台进行测试,结果表明,航行控制系统内部以及和综合控制台之间的数据传输准确、可靠。     

E-Bayesian estimation of the reliability derived from Binomial distribution

This paper introduces a new parameter estimation method, named E-Bayesian estimation method, to estimate reliability derived from Binomial distribution. The definition of E-Bayesian estimation of the reliability is proposed, the formulas of E-Bayesian estimation and hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the reliability are also provided. Finally, it is shown, through a numerical example, that the new method is much simpler than hierarchical Bayesian estimation in practice.