Current problems in insurance economics

This paper presents a survey of the lectures held within the B.V.V.O.-chair for insurance economics, 1990–1991. Within this context, a ‘company mission’ for the Center for Insurance Studies is formulated. Future topics to be tackled are given and some results to questions raised during the lectures are presented. In this respect, the corporate strategist will be interested in Sections 2 (positioning of the industry vis-à-vis the competitive forces) and 4 (potential competition from 1992 and synergy with banks). The economist will find some reflections on the nature of insurance from both partial (industrial organisation) and general equilibrium analyses.     

Hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression analysis in claims reserving with geometric separation method

Claims reserving is obviously necessary for representing future obligations of an insurance company and selection of an accurate method is a major component of the overall claims reserving process. However, the wide range of unquantifiable factors which increase the uncertainty should be considered when using any method to estimate the amount of outstanding claims based on past data. Unlike traditional methods in claims analysis, fuzzy set approaches can tolerate imprecision and uncertainty without loss of performance and effectiveness. In this paper, hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression, which is proposed by Chang (2001), is used to predict future claim costs by utilizing the concept of a geometric separation method. We use probabilistic confidence limits for designing triangular fuzzy numbers. Thus, it allows us to reflect variability measures contained in a data set in the prediction of future claim costs. We also propose weighted functions of fuzzy numbers as a defuzzification procedure in order to transform estimated fuzzy claim costs into a crisp real equivalent.     

随机利率下的增额寿险

寿险中的利率随机性问题，是近年来保险精算研完的热点之一，本文以即时给付的毒额寿险为对象，对随机利率采用Gauss过程建模，研究给付现值及其各阶矩，并在死亡均匀分布假设下得到矩的简洁表达式。     

委托-代理理论在保险代理激励机制中的应用

本文将委托 代理模型应用于保险人与保险代理人之间的激励机制中 ,在外生环境服从指数分布的随机变量时 ,针对对称信息与不对称信息情况分别进行讨论 .     

Pricing long-dated insurance contracts with stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

We consider the pricing of long-dated insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility. In particular, we focus on the valuation of insurance options with long-term equity or foreign exchange exposures. Our modeling framework extends the stochastic volatility model of Schöbel and Zhu (1999) by including stochastic interest rates. Moreover, we allow all driving model factors to be instantaneously correlated with each other, i.e. we allow for a general correlation structure between the instantaneous interest rates, the volatilities and the underlying stock returns. As insurance products often incorporate long-term exposures, they are typically more sensitive to changes in the interest rates, volatility and currencies. Therefore, having the flexibility to correlate the underlying asset price with both the stochastic volatility and the stochastic interest rates, yields a realistic model which is of practical importance for the pricing and hedging of such long-term contracts. We show that European options, typically used for the calibration of the model to market prices, and forward starting options can be priced efficiently and in closed-form by means of Fourier inversion techniques. We extensively discuss the numerical implementation of these pricing formulas, allowing for a fast and accurate valuation of European and forward starting options. The model will be especially useful for the pricing and risk management of insurance contracts and other exotic derivatives involving long-term maturities.