Robustness of optimal portfolios under risk and stochastic dominance constraints

Solutions of portfolio optimization problems are often influenced by a model misspecification or by errors due to approximation, estimation and incomplete information. The obtained results, recommendations for the risk and portfolio manager, should be then carefully analyzed. We shall deal with output analysis and stress testing with respect to uncertainty or perturbations of input data for static risk constrained portfolio optimization problems by means of the contamination technique. Dependence of the set of feasible solutions on the probability distribution rules out the straightforward construction of convexity-based global contamination bounds. Results obtained in our paper [Dupa?ová, J., & Kopa, M. (2012). Robustness in stochastic programs with risk constraints. Annals of Operations Research, 200, 55–74.] were derived for the risk and second order stochastic dominance constraints under suitable smoothness and/or convexity assumptions that are fulfilled, e.g. for the Markowitz mean–variance model. In this paper we relax these assumptions having in mind the first order stochastic dominance and probabilistic risk constraints. Local bounds for problems of a special structure are obtained. Under suitable conditions on the structure of the problem and for discrete distributions we shall exploit the contamination technique to derive a new robust first order stochastic dominance portfolio efficiency test.     

Info-gap forecasting and the advantage of sub-optimal models

We consider forecasting in systems whose underlying laws are uncertain, while contextual information suggests that future system properties will differ from the past. We consider linear discrete-time systems, and use a non-probabilistic info-gap model to represent uncertainty in the future transition matrix. The forecaster desires the average forecast of a specific state variable to be within a specified interval around the correct value. Traditionally, forecasting uses a model with optimal fidelity to historical data. However, since structural changes are anticipated, this is a poor strategy. Our first theorem asserts the existence, and indicates the construction, of forecasting models with sub-optimal-fidelity to historical data which are more robust to model error than the historically optimal model. Our second theorem identifies conditions in which the probability of forecast success increases with increasing robustness to model error. The proposed methodology identifies reliable forecasting models for systems whose trajectories evolve with Knightian uncertainty for structural change over time. We consider various examples, including forecasting European Central Bank interest rates following 9/11.     

Spatial multicriteria decision support for robust land-use suitability: The case of landfill site selection in Northeastern Greece

Multicriteria spatial decision support systems (MC-SDSS) have emerged as an integration of geographical information systems (GIS) and multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods for incorporating conflicting objectives and decision makers’ preferences into spatial decision models. In this paper, we present spatial UTASTAR (S-UTASTAR), a raster-based MC-SDSS for land-use suitability analysis. The multicriteria component of the system is based on the UTA-type disaggregation-aggregation approach. S-UTASTAR is applied in a raster-based case study concerning land-use suitability analysis to identify appropriate municipal solid waste landfill (MSW) sites in Northeast Greece. Moreover, robustness analysis tools are implemented to guarantee robust decision support results. More specifically, during the aggregation phase, the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) is used to indicate the frequency at which a site achieves the best ranking positions within a large set of alternative landfill sites.     

Distributionally robust scheduling on parallel machines under moment uncertainty

This paper investigates a distributionally robust scheduling problem on identical parallel machines, where job processing times are stochastic without any exact distributional form. Based on a distributional set specified by the support and estimated moments information, we present a min-max distributionally robust model, which minimizes the worst-case expected total flow time out of all probability distributions in this set. Our model doesn’t require exact probability distributions which are the basis for many stochastic programming models, and utilizes more information compared to the interval-based robust optimization models. Although this problem originates from the manufacturing environment, it can be applied to many other fields when the machines and jobs are endowed with different meanings. By optimizing the inner maximization subproblem, the min-max formulation is reduced to an integer second-order cone program. We propose an exact algorithm to solve this problem via exploring all the solutions that satisfy the necessary optimality conditions. Computational experiments demonstrate the high efficiency of this algorithm since problem instances with 100 jobs are optimized in a few seconds. In addition, simulation results convincingly show that the proposed distributionally robust model can hedge against the bias of estimated moments and enhance the robustness of production systems.     

Risk Sensitive Filtering with Poisson Process Observations

In this paper we consider risk sensitive filtering for Poisson process observations. Risk sensitive filtering is a type of robust filtering which offers performance benefits in the presence of uncertainties. We derive a risk sensitive filter for a stochastic system where the signal variable has dynamics described by a diffusion equation and determines the rate function for an observation process. The filtering equations are stochastic integral equations. Computer simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance gain for the risk sensitive filter compared with the risk neutral filter. Accepted 23 July 1999     

An optimal capacity assignment for the robust design problem in capacitated flow networks

This paper proposes an exact algorithm to solve the robust design problem in a capacitated flow network in which each edge has several possible capacities. A capacitated flow network is popular in our daily life. For example, the computer network, the power transmission network, or even the supply chain network are capacitated flow networks. In practice, such network may suffer failure, partial failure or maintenance. Therefore, each edge in the network should be assigned sufficient capacity to keep the network functioning normally. The robust design problem (RDP) in a capacitated flow network is to search for the minimum capacity assignment of each edge such that the network still survived even under the edge’s failure. However, how to optimally assign the capacity to each edge is not an easy task. Although this kind of problem was known of NP-hard, this paper proposes an efficient exact algorithm to search for the optimal solutions for such a network and illustrates the efficiency of the proposed algorithm by numerical examples.     

Robustness of networks against cascading failures

Inspired by other related works, this paper proposes a non-linear load-capacity model against cascading failures, which is more suitable for real networks. The simulation was executed on the B-A scale-free network, E-R random network, Internet AS level network, and the power grid of the western United States. The results show that the model is feasible and effective. By studying the relationship between network cost and robustness, we find that the model can defend against cascading failures better and requires a lower investment cost when higher robustness is required.     

抗JPEG压缩和几何攻击的鲁棒零水印算法

针对数字图像传输时经常面临JPEG压缩和几何攻击,提出一种抗JPEG压缩和几何攻击的鲁棒零水印算法.将原始图像分割成互不重叠的子块,对每个子块进行奇异值分解,对奇异值矩阵进行harr小波变换,通过比较相邻两个子块奇异值矩阵小波低频逼近子带对角线元素的均值大小关系产生零水印序列.数学理论分析表明:通过比较相邻两个子块奇异值矩阵所有奇异值的均值大小关系产生零水印序列,算法实质上没有对原始图像做任何改动,具有非常好的不可见性.实验结果表明,该算法在抵抗JPEG压缩和旋转、尺寸缩放、随机删除行列、偏移行列、打印-扫描几种几何攻击表现出比较强的鲁棒性.     

Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection

In decision analysis, difficulties of obtaining complete information about model parameters make it advisable to seek robust solutions that perform reasonably well across the full range of feasible parameter values. In this paper, we develop the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology which extends Preference Programming methods into portfolio problems where a subset of project proposals are funded in view of multiple evaluation criteria. We also develop an algorithm for computing all non-dominated portfolios, subject to incomplete information about criterion weights and project-specific performance levels. Based on these portfolios, we propose a project-level index to convey (i) which projects are robust choices (in the sense that they would be recommended even if further information were to be obtained) and (ii) how continued activities in preference elicitation should be focused. The RPM methodology is illustrated with an application using real data on road pavement projects.