THE EXPERIMENTS OF SEASONAL PREDICTION USING THE ANALOGY-DYNAMICAL MODEL

From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal predictions. All of the predictions were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year predictions show certain skill in seasonal prediction, and the skill scores of prediction are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.     

INVERSION OF A NONLINEAR DYNAMICAL MODEL FROM THE OBSERVATION

A technique for inversion of a nonlinear dynamical model from the observations has been developed, and examined by using the Lorenz system. The results show that the Lorenz system can be accurately inversed by using the observation data set. This technique will be broadly used in establishing the nonlinear dynamical model from an actual data set.     

基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值实验

基于由历史相似信息对模式预报误差进行预报的思路,发展了一种针对季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正新方法（FACEPC）,目的是识别模式预报结果中对初值相对不够敏感的可预报分量,将其作为对象进行历史相似选取和误差订正.该方法被应用到国家气候中心业务季节预报模式实验中,对不同区域给出有针对性的相似选取指标和预报方案.25年的交叉检验结果表明,夏季降水和环流的预报技巧评分相对于系统误差订正有明显提高,在发生中等及以上强度ENSO事件年和可预报分量贡献较大地区的预报技巧提高更为显著.特别是中国区域降水和关键区环流的 关键词： 短期气候预测 相似误差订正 可预报分量     

聚对苯二甲酸-己二酸丁二酯/聚3-羟基丁酸酯4-羟基丁酸酯共混材料的制备及性能表征

采用熔融共混制备了聚对苯二甲酸-己二酸丁二酯(poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate),PBAT)与聚3-羟基丁酸酯4-羟基丁酸酯(poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-4-hydroxybutyrate),P34HB)的共混材料。研究了P34HB含量(0 wt%, 5 wt%、 10 wt%、 15 wt%、 20 wt%)对共混材料熔体流动性能、力学性能、热性能和界面微观形貌的影响,及其PBAT/P34HB吹塑薄膜的力学性能和氧气阻隔性能。结果表明,P34HB的加入降低了材料的熔体黏度,提高了材料的流动性以及薄膜的直角撕裂性能、穿刺性能和氧气阻隔性能。当P34HB含量为5wt%时,共混材料综合性能最佳,两相相容性良好,共混材料和吹塑薄膜均具有优异的力学性能,薄膜的拉伸性能和穿刺强度最高,是性能优异的包装和农膜材料。     

氢化奎尼定衍生物的合成及其催化性能研究

以价格较低的奎尼丁为原料，常压催化加氢后，采用全新的方法与1,4-二氯酞嗪、1,4-二氯苯并[G]-2,3-二氮杂萘和卤代芳烃进行偶联，合成了氢化奎尼定1,4-(2,3-二氮杂萘)二醚(8a)、氢化奎尼定1,4-(苯并[G]-2,3-二氮杂萘)二醚(8b)、氢化奎尼定1-萘醚(8c)、氢化奎尼定9-菲醚(8d)和对氯苯甲酸氢化奎尼丁酯(8e),并通过FT-IR和NMR进行表征确认其结构。选用(22E,24S)-5α-豆甾-2,22-烯-6-酮作为底物，对目标化合物进行催化性能的测试。结果表明，8b和8d的选择性更佳，ee值达到77.8%,且8b的反应时间仅需两天，回收率高达81.3%。