The influence of the different distributed phase-randomized on the experimental data obtained in dynamic analysis

I.IntroductionSince1980manyscholarsaroundtheworldhavepaidmoreattentiontothequestionsoftimeseries.Inthereallifesometimeseriesrepresentthecharacterthatisdeterminedasrandomprocesstimeseries,andothersrepresentthecharacterthatisdeterminedasnonlinearchaotictilneseries.Soitisveryimportanttodistinguishthepropertyoftherealtimeseries.Ref.[11gaveustheftlndamentalmethodtodifferentiatethenonlinearchaotictimeseriesfromrandomtimeseries(thatiscalledphase-randomizedmethod).Ref.[2]gaveusthecalculatingmethodofc…     

STUDY FOR THE BIFURCATION TOPOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND THE GLOBAL COMPLICATED CHARACTER OF A KIND OF NONLINEAR FINANCE SYSTEM (Ⅰ)

Based on the mathematical model of a kind of complicated financial system, all possible things that the model shows in the operation of our country’s macro-financial system were analyzed, such as balance, stable periodic, fractal, Hopf-bifurcation, the relationship between parameters and Hopf-bifurcations,and chaotic motion etc. By the changes of parameters of all economic meanings, the conditions on which the complicated behaviors occur in such a financial system, and the influence of the adjustment of the macro-economic policies and adjustment of some parameter on the whole financial system behavior were analyzed. This study will deepen people’s understanding of the lever function of all kinds of financial policies.     

STUDY FOR THE BIFURCATION TOPOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND THE GLOBAL COMPLICATED CHARACTER OF A KIND OF NONLINEAR FINANCE SYSTEM(Ⅱ)

Based on the work discussed on the former study, this article first starts from the mathematical model of a kind of complicated financial system, and analyses all possible things that the model shows in the operation of our country’s macro-financial system: balance, stable periodic, fractal, Hopf-bifurcation, the relationship between parameters and Hopf-bifurcation, and chaotic motion etc. By the changes of parameters of all economic meanings, the conditions on which the complicated behaviors occur in such a financial system, and the influence of the adjustment of the macro-economic policies and adjustment of some parameter on the whole financial system behavior have been analyzed. This study will deepen people’s understanding of the lever function of all kinds of financial policies.     

STUDY FOR THE BIFURCATION TOPOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND THE GLOBAL COMPLICATED CHARACTER OF A KIND OF NONLINEAR FINANCE SYSTEM(Ⅱ)

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一类非线性混沌系统混沌吸引子的冲击控制

在国内外研究工作的基础上,给出了一类非线性混沌系统混沌吸引子的冲击控制方案,运用普适方程的冲击控制理论导出了这类混沌系统混沌吸引子的冲击控制渐进稳定的条件,利用这一条件给出了混沌吸引子渐进稳定冲击控制的区间上界,最后给出了许多数据结果,这些结果对于混沌吸引子的控制将有重要的参考价值．     

基于非线性混沌时序动力系统的预测方法研究

主要研究由混沌时序所确定的非线性动力系统的预测方法．研究了非线性自相关混沌模型的结构,模型阶数的确立技术．将神经网络和小波理论相结合,研究了小波变换神经网络的结构,给出了小波神经网络的学习方法;提出了一种新的基于小波网络的参数辨识方法．该方法可以有选择地提取时序中的不同的时间、频率尺度,实现原时序的趋势或细节预测．通过对混沌时序进行预处理,并比较预处理后的预测结果,得到了一些有益的结果:用非线性自相关混沌模型采用小波网络对模型参数进行辨识,其辨识的准确程度较高,用该模型对混沌时序(包括含有噪声)的预测比较有效．     

低维混沌时序非线性动力系统的预测方法及其应用研究

主要研究由低维混沌时序所确定的非线性动力系统的预测方法及其应用。在国外学者研究工作的基础上,应用一种非线性混沌模型在相空间内对时序进行重构工作,先通过改进的最小二乘方法来估计模型的参数,满足一定精度后,再采用最优化方法来估计模型的参数,并用所求得的混沌时序模型在其相空间内对时序的未来值进行预测。给出了非常有代表性的实例对文中模型和算法进行验证。结果发现采用该算法能较准确地求得模型的参数,在相空间中对混沌时序进行预测,将传统方法中的外推变成了相空间中的内插,及选取最佳的模型阶数等工作都能增加预测的准确程度,且混沌时序不可能进行长期的预测。     

动力系统实测数据的非线性混沌模型重构

动力系统实测非线性混沌数据的模型重构技术是相空间重构的重要内容。在判定了实测数据的非线性混沌特征,计算了实测数据的分维数,Lyapunov指数,并对其进行了本征值分解和噪声去除及确定其模型阶数以后,提出了一个动力系统实测数据的非线性混沌模型,给出了相应的模型参数辨识方法,并用其确立的混沌模型进行了预测工作,计算结果表明:模型参数辨识方法能迅速地将参数估计值带到多峰目标函数的全局最少值附近,然后再采用优化理论能较准确地求出模型的参数,用得到的混沌模型对系统进行预测工作其预测效果良好,且混沌时序不可能作长期预测。