三峡库区柑子溪桥头库岸塌岸预测

  三峡库区柑子溪桥头库岸段为土质岸坡。依据分段原则,将该库岸塌岸类型分为冲蚀磨蚀型和滑移型。对库岸稳定性评价,结果表明,3-3′、4-4′、5-5′剖面在工况6情况下处于欠稳定状态,其他工况情况下处于稳定~基本稳定状态。     

Evaluation analysis of prediction methods for two-phase flow pressure drop in mini-channels

Two-thousand and ninety-two data of two-phase flow pressure drop were collected from 18 published papers of which the working fluids include R123, R134a, R22, R236ea, R245fa, R404a, R407C, R410a, R507, CO₂, water and air. The hydraulic diameter ranges from 0.506 to 12 mm; Re_l from 10 to 37,000, and Re_g from 3 to 4 × 10⁵. Eleven correlations and models for calculating the two-phase frictional pressure drop were evaluated based upon these data. The results show that the accuracy of the Lockhart–Martinelli method, Mishima and Hibiki correlation, Zhang and Mishima correlation and Lee and Mudawar correlation in the laminar region is very close to each other, while the Muller-Steinhagen and Heck correlation is the best among the evaluated correlations in the turbulent region. A modified Chisholm correlation was proposed, which is better than all of the evaluated correlations in the turbulent region and its mean relative error is about 29%. For refrigerants only, the new correlation and Muller-Steinhagen and Heck correlation are very close to each other and give better agreement than the other evaluated correlations.     

基于空间填充准则的交叉验证方法及其应用

在统计学与机器学习中,交叉验证被广泛应用于评估模型的好坏.但交叉验证法的表现一般不稳定,因此评估时通常需要进行多次交叉验证并通过求均值以提高交叉验证算法的稳定性.文章提出了一种基于空间填充准则改进的k折交叉验证方法,它的思想是每一次划分的训练集和测试集均具有较好的均匀性.模拟结果表明,文章所提方法在五种分类模型(k近邻,决策树,随机森林,支持向量机和Adaboost)上对预测精度的估计均比普通k折交叉验证的高.将所提方法应用于骨质疏松实际数据分析中,根据对预测精度的估计选择了最优的模型进行骨质疏松患者的分类预测.     

Void fraction prediction in two-phase flows independent of the liquid phase density changes

Gamma-ray densitometry is a frequently used non-invasive method to determine void fraction in two-phase gas liquid pipe flows. Performance of flow meters using gamma-ray attenuation depends strongly on the fluid properties. Variations of the fluid properties such as density in situations where temperature and pressure fluctuate would cause significant errors in determination of the void fraction in two-phase flows. A conventional solution overcoming such an obstacle is periodical recalibration which is a difficult task. This paper presents a method based on dual modality densitometry using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which offers the advantage of measuring the void fraction independent of the liquid phase changes. An experimental setup was implemented to generate the required input data for training the network.ANNs were trained on the registered counts of the transmission and scattering detectors in different liquid phase densities and void fractions. Void fractions were predicted by ANNs with mean relative error of less than 0.45% in density variations range of 0.735 up to 0.98 gcm⁻³. Applying this method would improve the performance of two-phase flow meters and eliminates the necessity of periodical recalibration.     

隧道工程地质预报方法探讨

本文从一些隧道工程事故实例出发，讨论了引起坍方和涌水灾害的工程、水文地质条件，不同工程阶段的预报方法以及预报研究的重大经济效益。最后提出五点提高预报符合率的原则和方法。     

隧洞围岩力学性态预报的随机介质模型

本文基于系统学观点,利用随机过程以及概率与数理统计方法,视岩体为一随机不确定性系统,建立了描述变形概率密度函数演化所服从的方程,详细讨论了变形发展的概率预报,最后给出了一些有意义的结论和意见。     

顺层蠕动边坡变形破坏机理及稳定性动态分析

本文以阜新海州露天矿边坡为例, 分析了边坡变形规律和破坏机制。在弱层流变试验的基础上, 建立了弱层流变力学模型, 通过确定加速蠕变阶段来临的极限应变量和应变速率, 建立了弱层长期强度的时间效应方程, 对于不同边坡工况进行了动态稳定性评价, 为采取抗滑措施控制蠕动边坡的变形破坏发展提供了科学依据。最后提出了一个边坡加速蠕变阶段来临的预测预报方法, 分析结果和实测资料较为一致。     

泥石流预测、预报技术方法的研究现状浅析

泥石流灾害的预测、预报是减灾防灾重要环节和基础。在充分研究泥石流形成条件基础上 ,正确预测、预报泥石流 ,是目前最大限度减少泥石流灾害损失所采取的主要方法。本文综合了当前泥石流预测预报的方法 ,分析了泥石流长期、中期、短期预报及泥石流预报的原理 ,不同时期泥石流预报的特征及存在的问题。我国是受泥石流危害最为严重的国家之一。每年由泥石流造成的直接经济损失约达几十亿元之多 ,减少泥石流灾害造成的损失主要取决于预测预报工作等。     

混沌时间序列预测的局域法在边坡变形分析中的应用

边坡作为一个复杂系统,其本身的各种参量是不确定的和随机的,在其演化过程中,表现出复杂的非线性行为,发生一系列的混沌现象。本文运用现代混沌理论,对边坡变形的预测问题进行探索性研究,把混沌时间序列理论引入到边坡工程研究中,对该理论的建立及预测方法进行系统地讨论,为该领域的研究提供完整的技术方法。通过对新滩滑坡的研究结果表明,混沌时间序列方法对混沌序列的预测较线性时间序列具有较高的精度。     

滑坡分维特征及其预测意义

本文依据分形理论，采用盒维数法计算了西藏樟木地区滑坡及其水系的空间分维。分析了分维的变化特征。发现滑坡高潮期前存在不同幅度的降维现象，滑坡区滑坡活动程度不同，其水系分维在不同观察尺度下变化幅度有显着的差别。探讨了分维的预测意义。