节点抗攻击存在差异的无尺度网络恶意软件传播研究

在考虑节点抗攻击能力存在差异情形下,研究了恶意软件在无尺度网络中的传播行为.基于元胞自动机理论,建立了节点具有攻击差异的恶意软件传播模型.通过定义脆弱性函数,以描述不同度节点的抗攻击差异,使得模型更具普遍性.研究了不同形式的脆弱性函数对恶意软件在无尺度网络中的传播临界值和时间演化的影响.研究表明,节点抗攻击能力的差异对传播行为会产生重要影响,如导致传播临界值改变、传播速度减缓.研究指出,脆弱性函数是网络选择适合的免疫策略的重要依据.     

利用邻域“结构洞”寻找社会网络中最具影响力节点

识别复杂网络中的关键节点对网络结构优化和鲁棒性增强具有十分重要的意义. 经典的关键节点测量方法在一定程度上能够辨识网络中影响力节点, 但存在一定局限性: 局部中心性测量方法仅考虑节点邻居的数目, 忽略了邻居间的拓扑关系, 不能在计算中反映邻居节点间的相互作用; 全局测量方法则由于算法本身的复杂性而不能应用于大规模社会网络的分析, 另外, 经典的关键节点测量方法也没有考虑社会网络特有的社区特征. 为高效、准确地辨识具有社区结构的社会网络中最具影响力节点, 提出了一种基于节点及其邻域结构洞的局部中心性测量方法, 该方法综合考虑了节点的邻居数量及其与邻居间的拓扑结构, 在节点约束系数的计算中同时体现了节点的度属性和“桥接”属性. 利用SIR(易感-感染-免疫)模型在真实社会网络数据上对节点传播能力进行评价后发现, 所提方法可以准确地评价节点的传播能力且具有强的鲁棒性.     

Prediction of epidemics dynamics on networks with partial differential equations: A case study for COVID-19 in China

Since December 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic has repeatedly hit countries around the world due to various factors such as trade, national policies and the natural environment. To closely monitor the emergence of new COVID-19 clusters and ensure high prediction accuracy, we develop a new prediction framework for studying the spread of epidemic on networks based on partial differential equations (PDEs), which captures epidemic diffusion along the edges of a network driven by population flow data. In this paper, we focus on the effect of the population movement on the spread of COVID-19 in several cities from different geographic regions in China for describing the transmission characteristics of COVID-19. Experiment results show that the PDE model obtains relatively good prediction results compared with several typical mathematical models. Furthermore, we study the effectiveness of intervention measures, such as traffic lockdowns and social distancing, which provides a new approach for quantifying the effectiveness of the government policies toward controlling COVID-19 via the adaptive parameters of the model. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to apply the PDE model on networks with Baidu Migration Data for COVID-19 prediction.     

一种基于元胞自动机的自适应网络病毒传播模型

自适应网络是节点动力学和网络动力学相互作用和反馈的演化网络. 基于元胞自动机建立自适应网络中易感-感染-易感(susceptible-infected-susceptible)的病毒传播模型,研究节点为了规避病毒传播所采取的多种网络重连规则对病毒传播及网络统计特征的影响. 结果表明:自适应网络中的重连规则可以有效减缓病毒传播速度,降低病毒传播规模;随机重连规则使得网络统计特征趋于随机网络;基于元胞自动机建立的传播模型清晰地表达了病毒在传播过程中的双稳态现象. 关键词： 自适应网络 传播动力学 网络动力学 元胞自动机     

Epidemic propagation on adaptive coevolutionary networks with preferential local-world reconnecting strategy

In the propagation of an epidemic in a population, individuals adaptively adjust their behavior to avoid the risk of an epidemic. Differently from existing studies where new links are established randomly, a local link is established preferentially in this paper. We propose a new preferentially reconnecting edge strategy depending on spatial distance (PR- SD). For the PR-SD strategy, the new link is established at random with probability p and in a shortest distance with the probability 1 p. We establish the epidemic model on an adaptive network using Cellular Automata, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by numerical simulations. The results show that the smaller the value of parameter p, the more difficult the epidemic spread is. The PR-SD strategy breaks long-range links and establishes as many short-range links as possible, which causes the network efficiency to decrease quickly and the propagation of the epidemic is restrained effectively.     

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection.