Development of Near-Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy Models for Quantitative Determination of Water-Soluble Carbohydrate Content in Wheat Stem and Glume

Water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) reserved in stem is an important agronomic trait for crop improvement. The intact samples and pieces of chipped samples were employed to determine WSC content by near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS). Three NIRS models were developed to predict WSC content in wheat stem lower internode, upmost internode, and wheat glume, respectively. Moreover, a mixed model was developed for WSC quantitative analysis in the mixed sample of the three wheat organs. Statistics analysis indicated that the four models showed a high determination coefficient (R² ≥ 0.97) and ratio of standard deviation to RMSECV (RPD ≥ 5.99). The NIRS models would allow rapid and high throughout assessments and selections of WSC contents in wheat genetics and breeding programs.     

Large sample prediction intervals for future geometric mean a comparative study

This paper provides simulation comparisons among the performance of 11 possible prediction intervals for the geometric.mean of a Pareto distribution with parameters (αB, ). Six different procedures were used to obtain these intervals , namely; true inter -val , pivotal interval , maximum likelihood estimation interval, centrallimit teorem interval, variance stabilizing interval and a mixture of the above intervals . Some of these intervals are valid if the observed sample size m,are large , others are valid if both, n and the future sample size m, are large. Some of these intervals require a knowledge of α or B, while others do not. The simulation validation and efficiency study shows that intervals depending on the MLE's are the best. The second best intervalsare those obtained through pivotal methods or variance stabilization transformation. The third group of intervals is that which depends on the central limit theorem when λ is known. There are two intervals which proved to be unacceptable under any criterion.     

Extension of polar GC-SAFT to systems containing some oxygenated compounds: Application to ethers, aldehydes and ketones

The GC-SAFT equation of state proposed by Tamouza et al. (2004) [51], extended to polar molecular fluids NguyenHuynh et al. (2008) [32], is here applied to model vapor-liquid phase equilibria of various binary mixtures containing at least one oxygenated compound belonging to ethers, ketones or aldehydes chemical families.These systems are modeled using a polar version of the three different versions of SAFT-EOS (original, VR-SAFT and PC-SAFT) in a predictive manner: binary interaction parameters k_ij and l_ij are all set to zero.In the case of alcohol + ether, +ketone, +aldehyde systems, a cross-association interaction between an oxygenated compound (non self-associating compound) and an alcohol is necessary to model/predict accurately the mixture VLE. The corresponding association parameters are assumed to be equal to the self-association parameters of pure 1-alkanols.The above-cited systems have been treated in a comprehensive manner. The general agreement between polar GC-SAFT and experimental data is good (within 4-5% deviation on pressure), similar to the one obtained on previously investigated systems using GC-SAFT.     

A simplified prediction of entropy of melting for energetic compounds

A new widely applicable model for the prediction of the entropy of melting of organic compounds is presented. The use of three simple geometry based parameters: rotational symmetry, flexibility, and eccentricity enables the simple and accurate prediction of this important property. This paper demonstrates the use of the model for energetic compounds.     

基于定量构效关系设计自乳化系统

将定量构效关系引入到自乳化系统中, 采用HF/6-31G^*方法优化分子结构, 在此基础上计算出组分的量子化学参数, 考察组分含量、立体效应、疏水效应、静电效应对自乳化体系的微乳区域面积和粒径的影响, 通过多元线性回归建立了分子结构参数和组分比例与体系的微乳区域面积/粒径间的定量函数模型, 并对模型外的组分组成的测试集进行了预测. 研究结果表明: 乳化剂与助乳化剂的用量比是影响自乳化体系相行为的主要因素, 油相和助乳化剂含量增大, 粒径增加, 乳化剂含量增大, 粒径减小; 而组分间的相互作用力对系统性质影响较小. 除以肉豆蔻酸异丙酯(IPM)为油相建立的模型外, 其余模型均具有较好的预测效果, 利用这些规律可为自乳化系统的组分筛选提供理论指导, 提高实验效率.     

概率神经网络及FAAS在植物药分类研究中的应用

用火焰原子吸收法（FAAS）测定了植物药中Fe、Mg、Mn、Cu、Zn和Ca元素的含量,采用主成分分析法对所测数据进行预处理,结合概率神经网络模型对中药功效类别进行识别预测研究,取得了较满意的结果。     

基于层次分析法的隧道综合地质预报优化

隧道综合地质预报是解决隧道施工期地质问题、降低施工风险的一项重要技术手段。鉴于目前综合预报多为简单的数量上的综合,为更加有效地利用综合预报技术,首先归纳地质分析辨识常见不良地质体的方法,通过地质分析法初步判定隧道掌子面前方可能存在的地质异常,并结合层次分析法的基本思路,将影响预报手段的指标量化,即赋予预报方法权重,建立二级综合评价指标体系,研究不同预报方法对特定工程地质条件的适用性,以选择几种最优预报方法。主要研究结论如下:利用地质分析法定性、层次分析法定量的方法优选预报手段,减少了综合超前地质预报中物探手段选择的随意性,并据此建立综合预报体系。最后将该体系应用于紫荆山隧道F2断层的预报中,成功预报了ZK221+960处地下暗河,避免了施工事故的发生,取得了一定的经济效益,证明了通过层次分析法来优化综合预报方法的可行性。     

The deterministic grey dynamic model with convolution integral DGDMC(1, n)

Although the grey forecasting models have been successfully utilized in many fields and demonstrated promising results, literatures show their performance still could be improved. The grey prediction theory is methodology and it is necessary to constantly present new models or algorithm based on the theory to improve its performance, prediction accuracy especially. For this purpose, this paper proposes a new prediction model called the deterministic grey dynamic model with convolution integral, abbreviated as DGDMC(1, n). Improvements upon the existing grey prediction model GM(1, n) are made to a large extent and the messages for a system can be inserted sufficiently. The major improvements include determining the unbiased estimates of the system parameters by the deterministic convergence scheme, introducing the first derivative of the 1-AGO data of each associated series into the DGDMC(1, n) model to strengthen the indicative significance and evaluating the modelling 1-AGO data of the predicted series by the convolution integral. The indirect measurement of the tensile strength of a material for a higher temperature is adpoted for demonstration. The results show that the accuracy of indirect measurement is higher by the DGDMC(1, n) model than by the existing GM(1, n) model.     

Modeling churn using customer lifetime value

The definition and modeling of customer loyalty have been central issues in customer relationship management since many years. Recent papers propose solutions to detect customers that are becoming less loyal, also called churners. The churner status is then defined as a function of the volume of commercial transactions. In the context of a Belgian retail financial service company, our first contribution is to redefine the notion of customer loyalty by considering it from a customer-centric viewpoint instead of a product-centric one. We hereby use the customer lifetime value (CLV) defined as the discounted value of future marginal earnings, based on the customer’s activity. Hence, a churner is defined as someone whose CLV, thus the related marginal profit, is decreasing. As a second contribution, the loss incurred by the CLV decrease is used to appraise the cost to misclassify a customer by introducing a new loss function. In the empirical study, we compare the accuracy of various classification techniques commonly used in the domain of churn prediction, including two cost-sensitive classifiers. Our final conclusion is that since profit is what really matters in a commercial environment, standard statistical accuracy measures for prediction need to be revised and a more profit oriented focus may be desirable.     

农民收入增长波动关系预测分析:基于小波变换

新农村建设背景下,保持农民收入快速、稳定增长对于构建社会主义和谐社会、不断缩小城乡差距具有重要的战略意义。本文运用小波变换(WT)对1976-2006年间农民收入的波动关系进行预测分析,实证检验结果显示:全国农民人均纯收入增长具有7年和40年左右的特征时间尺度,与农民人均纯收入变化存在着7年和40年两个主要周期振荡保持一致。两个特征时间尺度叠加,可以预见在未来的数年内,全国农民人均纯收入将呈现绝对值快速增长、增长率在波动中有所放缓的特征。最后,文章就如何保持农民收入稳定增长提出了点简短的对策建议。