教学质量的时齐马尔可夫链评估法

本文研究了教学质量评估中的一种定量分析方法──时齐马尔可夫链评估法．阐明了这种方法的理论依据及其实施程序、并指出它较之其他教学质量评估法更显合理．     

排球比赛中的二传最优过程

为了研究排球比赛中的二传最优过程 ,本文基于决策论的理论和方法建立了排球二传最优过程的数学模型 .通过对模型的分析研究分别给出了最大概率准则和最大期望准则下的最优传球方式 .本文所得到的结果对排球队的训练和比赛有一定的指导意义 .     

模糊事件贝叶斯公式

讨论了模糊事件的概率及其基本性质 ,并通过对经典贝叶斯公式的推广 ,提出了模糊事件的贝叶斯公式 .     

Path properties of l_p-valued Gaussian random fields

General limit theorems are established for l~p-valued Gaussian random fields indexed by a multidimensional parameter,which contain both almost sure moduli of continuity and limits of large increments for the l~p-valued Gaussian random fields under(?)explicit conditions.     

Robust Dynamics and Control of a Partially Observed Markov Chain

In a seminal paper, Martin Clark (Communications Systems and Random Process Theory, Darlington, 1977, pp. 721–734, 1978) showed how the filtered dynamics giving the optimal estimate of a Markov chain observed in Gaussian noise can be expressed using an ordinary differential equation. These results offer substantial benefits in filtering and in control, often simplifying the analysis and an in some settings providing numerical benefits, see, for example Malcolm et al. (J. Appl. Math. Stoch. Anal., 2007, to appear). Clark’s method uses a gauge transformation and, in effect, solves the Wonham-Zakai equation using variation of constants. In this article, we consider the optimal control of a partially observed Markov chain. This problem is discussed in Elliott et al. (Hidden Markov Models Estimation and Control, Applications of Mathematics Series, vol. 29, 1995). The innovation in our results is that the robust dynamics of Clark are used to compute forward in time dynamics for a simplified adjoint process. A stochastic minimum principle is established.     

带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型的不破产概率

本文讨论了带干扰的Erlang(2)风险模型,通过构造一个延迟更新过程,我们得到了不破产概率满足的积分-微分方程,进而得到了不破产概率的明确表达式．     

Two-sided bounds for the distribution of the deficit at ruin in the renewal risk model

We obtain lower and upper bounds for the severity of ruin in the renewal (Sparre Andersen) model of risk theory. We present two types of bounds: (i) bounds applicable generally; and (ii) exponential bounds for the case where the adjustment coefficient of the risk process exists. Many of these bounds are obtained using existing bounds and the integral equation for the severity of ruin.     

Lower bounds for transition probabilities on graphs

The paper presents two results. The first one provides separate conditions for the upper and lower estimates of the distribution of the time of exit from balls of a random walk on a weighted graph. The main result of the paper is that the lower estimate follows from the elliptic Harnack inequality. The second result is an off-diagonal lower bound for the transition probability of the random walk.