新疆的生态旅游及其可持续发展研究

中国新疆旅游资源丰富多彩且具特色，但由于特殊的地理位置和当地经济条件，这里的旅游业还不发达，随着西部大开发脚步的加快，新疆的生态环境必将受到冲击和影响，如何保障生态环境免遭破坏，又能在大力开放旅游资源的前提下寻求可持续发展，对上问题，本文在探讨生态旅游的现状利弊基础上，结合西部大开发将面临的平等一系列生态问题及生态旅游资源的可持续利用问题进行了讨论。     

证据理论在新产品开发方案可行性评估中的应用

研究证据理论在新产品开发方案可行性评估中的应用。证据理论是一种不确定性的推理方法，能较好地反映可行性评估中客观证据和专家意见对评估结果的影响。通过对宽带可视电话开发方案可行性评估过程的分析表明，证据理论为企业新产品开发方案的可行性评估提供了客观的、操作性好的的模型和方法。     

多学科跨专业物理实验教学研究

本文以跨专业物理实验的教学实践为例,阐述了开设具有特色的适用多专业的实验内容,是实现素质教育的途径之一。     

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS APPLIED TO WILDERNESS PRESERVATION—OPTION VALUE UNCERTAINTY AND DITONICITY

It has been recognized for some time that when cost-benefit analysis is applied to irreversible environmental decisions, such as that of developing or preserving wilderness land, there can be an option value associated with the preservation decision, which arises when there is future uncertainty with respect to the benefits of development or preservation. In this paper the provenance of option value is examined and it is shown that an important cause is a special kind of uncertainty, viz. the possibility of reversals in direction of the relative valuations of wilderness land and developed land, a property we refer to as ditonicity. It is shown that the more ditonic the relative valuation process the greater the deviance between the certainty-equivalence development policy and the stochastically optimal one, and thus by implication the greater the option value. In the two cases with zero ditonicity, when relative wilderness valuations always increase or always decrease (even though in a stochastic fashion), there is zero option value. The model used assumes that service flows from wilderness and developed land are size-dependent, with future relative values known only in terms of a stochastic process, which can take jumps up or down of the same proportional size, at random times. Development can be partial or total and can occur in impulses at any time over an infinite time horizon.     

A review of Bayesian dynamic forecasting models: Applications in marketing

We briefly review the main developments of Bayesian dynamic models. The emphasis is on marketing applications. Typical examples in this area are discussed. The concepts of monitoring and intervention are carefully explained with illustrative examples and open source computational routines. We avoid algebraic developments and instead use graphical examples to illustrate theoretical aspects. Two real-world problems using Bayesian dynamic models are discussed. Finally, we describe recent developments and alternative proposals to formally address the dependence when dealing with the modeling of multiple time series.     

地质环境与城市发展研究综述

该文概述了城市地质环境与城市发展国内外研究现状,指出了我国城市工程地质工作存在的问题,论证了地质环境与城市发展中主要问题的解决途径,提出了地质环境与城市发展研究与工作的一些建议。论文还介绍了与地质环境与城市发展密切相关的我国工程地质专业设置现状与发展趋势。     

LY12铝疲劳裂纹在冲击载荷下的演化研究

对LY12铝合金在低周疲劳条件下的裂纹情况和随后进行的动态拉伸条件下裂纹的发展给予了观察和统计分析，发现裂纹的累积数密度分布在损伤演化过程中保持指数形式，用NAG模型对实验结果进行分析，得出该材料裂纹演化发展方程的各种参数。     

Flow development of xanthan solutions in capillary rheometers

Flow experiments through capillaries with 0.2% xanthan in aqueous solution and 0.1 N NaCl brine were carried out to study the influence of the molecular conformation on the flow development at relatively low shear rates, from 20s^–1 to 400s^–1. Capillaries with a wide range of length-to-diameter ratios, L/D = 4.5 to 1015 were used.The apparent viscosity as a function of L/D at a constant shear rate shows a continuous decrement of the viscosity as L/D increases, until an asymptotic value is reached. The decrement in the apparent viscosity is partially explained in terms of slip. It was found that slip is a function of L/D as well as shear stress, i.e., slip develops during flow, thus inducing spatial anisotropy in the fluid until a stable state is reached. However, the substantial difference in apparent viscosity between short capillaries and capillaries longer than 300 D may be attributed to dominant elongational flow due to the contraction in the small capillaries and slip in long capillaries.The flow in a sufficiently long capillary can be divided in four regions rather than three, as is usually assumed. In the first region, which corresponds to the entry, elongational and shear flow coexist and elongational flow dominant. In the second region, end effects and slip development are coupled. In the third region the flow is fully developed and end effects are negligible. However, the fluid shows physical characteristics different from those of the fluid at rest, as a consequence of prior slip development. The fourth zone is the exit region in which the velocity rearranges due to the change of boundary conditions. The length of each region depends on the conformation of the macromolecules and shear rate. In addition, it was found that the stiffness of xanthan increases with the increase of the ionic strength.Finally, a performance of Bagley's analysis in the whole range of L/D studied showed that the use of the Bagley correction is not a reliable way to correct for end effects when the flow is not fully developed and/or in the presence of slip.Dedicated to Arthur S. Lodge at the occasion of his 70th birthday and his retirement from the University of Wisconsin.     

Micromechanics of residual stress and texture development due to poling in polycrystalline ferroelectric ceramics

This paper presents micromechanics based analysis of elastic strain and changes in the texture of poled polycrystalline ferroelectric PZT ceramics for direct comparison with synchrotron X-ray measurements. The grains are modelled as spherical inclusions, to which transformation strains are assigned depending on the fractions of different ferroelectric domains. Eshelby's inclusion problem with the classical self-consistent method is applied to evaluate the elastic state of the grains. In particular, the elongation due to lattice elastic strain is calculated as a function of inclination Ψ relative to the polar axis. The ratio of diffraction peak intensities, corresponding to the domain fractions, is also expressed as a function of Ψ. This analysis identifies the special character of the reflection, for which the lattice strain along in the stress free state is independent of ferroelectric domain population and hence unaffected by poling. The elongation due to the lattice strain parallel to and peak intensity ratio are expressed in terms of the overall macroscopic strain of a poled specimen, each having a dependence.