Predictability and model selection in the context of ARCH models

Most of the methods used in the ARCH literature for selecting the appropriate model are based on evaluating the ability of the models to describe the data. An alternative model selection approach is examined based on the evaluation of the predictability of the models in terms of standardized prediction errors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

放射性9C束流不同贯穿深度上的线能谱测量

为阐述放射性⁹C束流应用于治癌的物理基础, 运用一个球形生物组织等效正比计数器测量了⁹C束流不同贯穿深度上的线能谱, 得到了沿束流贯穿深度上的剂量平均线能分布. 将实验测量得到的线能谱转换成为不同传能线密度在吸收剂量中所占份额的分布, 得到了该⁹C束流在不同贯穿深度上的剂量平均传能线密度分布. 将生物组织等效正比计数器测量得到的与先前通过平行板正比计数器测量得到的该⁹C束流的剂量平均传能线密度分布进行比较, 发现: 在束流入射通道上, 两者测量数据符合很好, 而在束流Bragg峰附近⁹C离子的沉积区域, 由组织等效正比计数器测量得到的剂量平均传能线密度值大于由平行板正比计数器测量得到的值.     

NCD系统的数学理论

无索赔折扣系统(No Claim Discount system,简记为NCD系统)是世界各国机动车辆险中广泛采用的一种经验费率厘定机制.本文尝试建立了NCD系统严谨的数学理论, 重点讨论了NCD系统的数学建模和稳态分析.此外,作为本文必要的数学前提,首先在第2节着重探讨了随机矩阵间的随机优序关系,并将所得结论运用至齐次不可约且遍历的马尔科夫链的研究中,这些内容也有其独立的数学上的兴趣.     

二次阳极氧化方法制备有序多孔氧化铝膜

通过二次阳极氧化方法制备多孔氧化铝膜与一次阳极氧化方法制备多孔氧化铝膜孔排布规律性的对比 ,结果发现 ,二次阳极氧化方法制取的多孔氧化铝膜孔排布规律性明显好于一次阳极氧化法制取的多孔膜 .在几个微米范围内 ,孔呈理想的六角排布 .去除一次阳极氧化膜后 ,二次阳极氧化得以在更良好的表面进行 ,制取的氧化铝膜孔规律性和有序度更高 .有序区域的尺寸与晶粒内的亚晶大小有一定关系     

The benefit of practice for sound localization without sight

An experiment was designed to determine whether normally sighted human subjects would be able to adapt to the handicapping effects of sudden deprivation of visual cues on horizontal plane sound localization. Two groups of sighted normal-hearing young adults participated. One group was allowed the benefit of sight. The other group was blindfolded. Measurements of accuracy and the time to respond were made daily over the course of five consecutive days, in a semi-reverberant sound proof booth that modeled listening in a small office. Sound localization was assessed using an array of eight speakers that surrounded the subject in space. Each day, one block of 120 trials was presented for each of three stimuli, two one-third octave noise bands, centred at 0.5 and 4 kHz, and broadband noise, to assess the utilization of interaural temporal difference cues, interaural level difference cues and binaural and spectral cues in combination. Blindfolded subjects were relatively less accurate than sighted subjects. Both groups showed gains with practice, the blindfolded group to a greater degree, largely due to improvements in the use of spectral cues. The blindfolded group took longer to respond than the sighted group, but showed greater decrements in response time with practice.     

Radiation effect on the 400-nm-thermoluminescence emission of a potassium-rich feldspar

The UV-blue thermoluminescence (TL) emission of exsolved and twinned potassium feldspars is potentially valid to be employed in the field of dating and retrospective dosimetry. This paper reports about the following results: (i) The dose dependence of the 400 nm TL intensity of a K-rich feldspar exhibits an excellent linearity in the range of 50 mGy–8 Gy. (ii) The stability of the TL signal after 6 months of storage, shows an initial rapid decay (ca. 45%) maintaining the stability from 40 days onwards which indicates that the electron population decreases asymptotically by the X-axis and the involved electrons are located in deeper traps at room temperature. The fading process can be fitted to a first-order decay equation of the sort y=y₀+A exp(−x/t). (iii) The tests of thermal stability at different temperatures confirm a continuous trap distribution with progressive changes in the glow curve shape, intensity and temperature position of the maximum peak. According to this behaviour some physical parameters are defined.     

High-Power CO2 Laser System with Repetition Rate Operation for High Current Multicharged Heavy Ion Generations

Experimental and numerical calculation results devoted to development of an optical system for an ion source based on a repetition rate CO₂ laser are described. The laser chain consists of a master oscillator, gas absorber cells, and a four-pass amplifier. The optical system provides smooth laser pulses with variable duration and high spatial quality that ensures efficiency for plasma heating and ion generation. The parameters of the plasma ion component measured in the CERN laboratory are applied for a lead target illumination.     

Physical Interpretation of the Motion of a Laser Pulse within the Framework of the Four-Oscillator Model

A physical multidimensional local model of the propagation process of a laser pulse in air having no analogy to famous models in laser physics is constructed. It is based on the representations of classical wave mechanics characteristic of the theory of scalar wave fields.     

Viscosity,particle size distribution,and structural investigation of tetramethyloxysilane/2‐hydroxyethyl methacrylate sols during the sol–gel process with acid and base catalysts

The tetramethoxysilane (TMOS)/2‐hydroxylethyl methacrylate (HEMA) hybrid gels were synthesized with acid and base catalysts, via the in situ polymerization of HEMA, with and without the cosolvent methanol. With methanol in the TMOS/HEMA sol, the enhanced esterification and depolymerization reactions of the silanols resulted in a slower growth of silica particles. The silica particles that were synthesized with an acid catalyst were less than 40 nm. The thermal resistance of the poly(2‐hydroxyethyl methacrylate) (PHEMA) chains was enhanced by the addition of colloidal silica. The Fourier transform infrared characterizations and the exothermal peaks on the differential scanning calorimetry traces of these hybrid gels indicated chemical hybridization occurring as a result of condensation of the colloid silica and PHEMA at higher temperatures. Hence, the residual weight content of the hybrid gel after its synthesis with the base catalyst was even higher than the content of TMOS in the hybrid sol. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 42: 3476–3486, 2004