The oscillation of stock price by majority orienting traders with investment position

We consider an interacting particle system for the stock price fluctuation. The change of the stock price with a feedback by the price considering the herding behavior (majority orienting behavior) of traders, gives the van der Pol equation as a deterministic approximation. Considering the investment position of each trader, we introduce the delayed van der Pol equation. The history of investment positions, for example sell or buy, of each trader for a stock makes a memory effect, which is modeled by using the time retardation. The delayed van der Pol equation model seems to be natural and explains typical phenomena, for example triangle pattern, volatility jumps, price jumps and price trends, known for the time series of a stock price.     

Analysis of housing prices by GEE and GLMM methodologies: a longitudinal study

The Spanish economic crisis has led to a significant reduction in housing sales, and therefore, there has been a decrease in housing prices. In this paper, we analyze changes in the average housing price throughout Spain. We use quarterly data from a random sample of 150 municipalities from the first quarter (Q1) of 2005, before the financial crisis started, to Q1 2010. Our analysis uses generalized estimating equation and generalized linear mixed model approaches. Data published for Q2, Q3, and Q4 2010 are compared with the data fitted using these models. Finally, the methods are compared with time‐series models. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Utility maximization in an illiquid market

We consider a stochastic optimization problem of maximizing the expected utility from terminal wealth in an illiquid market. A discrete time model is constructed with few additional state variables. The dynamic programming approach is then developed and used for numerical studies. No-arbitrage conditions were also discussed.     

An extension of the Clark–Haussmann formula and applications

ABSTRACT

This work considers a financial market stochastic model where the uncertainty is driven by a multidimensional Brownian motion. The market price of the risk process makes the transition between real world probability measure and risk neutral probability measure. Traditionally, the martingale representation formulas under the risk neutral probability measure require the market price of risk process to be bounded. However, in several financial models the boundedness assumption of the market price of risk fails; for example a financial market model with the market price of risk following an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. This work extends the Clark–Haussmann representation formula to underlying stochastic processes which fail to satisfy the standard requirements. Our methodology is classical, and it uses a sequence of mollifiers. Our result can be applied to hedging and optimal investment in financial markets with unbounded market price of risk. In particular, the mean variance optimization problem can be addressed within our framework.     

多服务商竞争环境下的服务价格与服务能力决策:以物流服务为例

以物流服务为研究对象,通过对不同服务商物流服务能力差异性的分析,建立了多服务商竞争环境下的排队模型,以利润最大化为目标,对服务商的服务价格和服务能力决策进行了研究,研究结果对进一步探讨多服务商横向联盟、区域物流市场规模等问题提供了一定的基础.     

基于SARIMA模型的居民消费价格指数预测分析

本文基于SARIMA模型对我国1990—2010年的居民消费价格指数月度数据进行预测分析。利用Eviews6.0对统计数据的变化趋势及季节性进行验证,结果表明该模型合理、有效,预测值与实际值的估计误差控制的很好。     

基于价格极差的GARCH模型

本文利用资产价格的极差序列,基于常规GARCH模型的框架,构造了一类关于波动率的新模型,即GARCH-R模型以及能够表达波动率变化非对称性特性的AGARCH-R模型。利用上证综合指数日收益率及相应的高频数据,通过比较不同模型对波动率以及VAR的预测效果,揭示了这种包含了极差信息的新的模型比传统的GARCH类模型的预测效果具有显著的优势。     

Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Regime Switching Market

Abstract

We study option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of a stock depends on a finite state Markov chain. Using a minimal martingale measure we show that the risk minimizing option price satisfies a system of Black–Scholes partial differential equations with weak coupling.     

Real-World Scenarios With Negative Interest Rates Based on the LIBOR Market Model

ABSTRACT

In this article, we present a methodology to simulate the evolution of interest rates under real-world probability measure. More precisely, using the multidimensional Shifted Lognormal LIBOR market model and a specification of the market price of risk vector process, we explain how to perform simulations of the real-world forward rates in the future, using the Euler?Maruyama scheme with a predictor?corrector strategy. The proposed methodology allows for the presence of negative interest rates as currently observed in the markets.     

A note on “Price discount based on early order commitment in a single manufacturer-multiple retailer supply chain”

In a recent paper by Xie et al. [Xie, J., Zhou, D., Wei, J.C., Zhao, X., 2010. Price discount based on early order commitment in a single manufacturer-multiple retailer supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research 200, 368-376], the authors have studied the early order commitment (EOC) strategy for a decentralized, two-level supply chain consisting of a single manufacturer and multiple retailers. They fail to provide an algorithm to determine the optimal EOC periods to minimize the total supply chain cost. This note proposes a polynomial-time algorithm to find the optimal solutions, and provides a new set of sufficient conditions under which the wholesale price discount scheme coordinates the whole supply chain.