Predicting vibration signals of automobile engine using chaos theory

Condition monitoring and life prediction of the vehicle engine is an important and urgent problem during the vehicle development process. The vibration signals that are closely associated with the engine running condition and its development trend are complex and nonlinear. The chaos theory is used to treat the nonlinear dynamical system recently. A novel chaos method in conjunction with SVD (singular value decomposition)denoising skill are used to predict the vibration time series. Two types of time series and their prediction errors are provided to illustrate the practical utility of the method.     

Fatigue Loading and Life Prediction in Three Fretting Fatigue Fixtures

Three fixtures for conducting laboratory fretting fatigue tests are described and their respective testing methods and the results of the analysis are compared. Each of these fixtures has been used to investigate the effects of various parameters of interest in fretting fatigue. These fixtures include a unique apparatus in which all load applied to the specimen is transferred to the fretting pads, an apparatus similar to many found in the literature where partial load transfer occurs across the pads, and a simplified dovetail fixture in which the clamping load, P, and the shear load, Q, are varied in phase. Select test conditions from prior experiments performed on identical material and resulting in similar lives ranging from one to ten million cycles from these fixtures are identified. The various testing conditions were used to compute the unique stress field for each case. The resulting contact stresses were used to calculate crack initiation based criteria, and to calculate stress intensity factors. The three fixtures were shown to be able to accommodate a range of loads, fretting pad contours, and specimen geometries that produced a variety of stress fields. A crack-initiation-based criterion was shown to predict the failure lives of thinner specimens accurately. The stress intensity factor calculations showed the possibility of a crack arresting for a stress field that decays rapidly and the possibility of a local minimum for K as a function of depth. The fixtures are shown to be complementary in generating data for development of robust fretting fatigue models that use these criteria.     

Long-Term Prediction of Creep Strain of Expanded Polystyrene

Data obtained in investigating the creep of expanded polystyrene in compression are discussed. An analysis of the results of creep tests 65–608 days long showed that the creep can be predicted for 50 years based on experiments of less duration than the 605 days indicated in EN 13163. For this purpose, it is suggested to employ a 95-fold extrapolation in time if the creep curves are described by a power function (as recommended by EN 13163) or a 50-fold extrapolation if the exponential equation proposed in the present paper is used. __________ Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 41, No. 6, pp. 795–802, November–December, 2005.     

具有离散参数齐次随机场的线性预测(V)

本文提出并研究下列四类线性预测问题：2（n0），6（n0），5（NO，n0）及3（N0，n0）．不仅求出了它们的预测误差，而且也求出了它们的预测值．因而不仅推广了而且也改进了[2－5]中的结果．本文还给出了场｛X（m，n）｝的一个新形式的表示式．     

Long-range predictive adaptive fuzzy relational control

A class of long-range predictive adaptive fuzzy relational controllers is presented. The plant behavior is described over an extended time horizon by a fuzzy relational model which is identified based on input-output closed-loop observations of the plant variables. In this class of adaptive controllers the control law attempts to minimize a quadratic cost over an extended control horizon. When used with linear models, this approach has revealed a significant potential for overcoming the limitations of one-step ahead schemes, such as the stabilization of non-minimum phase plants. Here, a uniform framework is adopted for implementing both the fuzzy model and the fuzzy controller, namely distributed fuzzy relational structures gaining from their massive parallel processing features and from the learning capabilities typical of the connectivist approaches. Issues such as maintenance during the adaptation process of the meaning of linguistic terms used at both fuzzy systems interfaces are addressed, namely by introducing a new design methodology for on-line fuzzy systems interface adaptation. The examples presented reinforce the claim of the usefulness of this new approach.     

Evaluation of the Kushida Method of short-term earthquake prediction

Kushida and Kushida found that FM radio waves from stations at distances over-the-horizon are received before earthquakes. Based on this finding, since the mid-1990’s, the Kushidas have been practicing “Earthquake Precursor Detection Experiment”. The performance of the Kushida method during 2000–2003 has been evaluated by checking their predictions against the actual seismicity. During the period, there were 92 Kushida predictions mentioning the possibility of M ≥ 5.5 event, whereas there were 49 M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in the Japanese region. If the criteria for successful prediction are set as: the errors in date is less than one day, epicentral position is roughly within specified area, and error in M is less than 0.5, the success rate was 20% and the alarm rate was 12%. If we relax the criteria to: the errors in dates within 10 days, epicenter within additional 100 km of specified area and the magnitude error less than 1.0, the success rate was 40% and the alarm rate was 27%. These rates may look insufficient for a practical prediction method. Considering, however, the fact that no other short-term prediction has ever been made in Japan so far it is a significant achievement. Moreover, it was found that in almost all failed predictions, meaningful signals were detected although the interpretations were incorrect. This indicates that the method is promising provided further investigation is carried out. The same evaluation at the M ≥ 6.0 level showed that the general performance was similar to the M ≥ 5.5 level, except that both success rate and alarm rate were lower at the M ≥ 6.0 level. If this unexpected finding is real, it might be inherent to the methodology using scattering of short-wave length radio waves as suggested by M. Hayakawa and may contain important information in understanding the earthquake physics and LAI-coupling. The results of the present study indicate strongly that the earthquake prediction research using anomalous transmission of VHF FM radio waves should be enhanced in parallel with complementary research in other frequency ranges.     

多级轴流压气机全工况特性计算

本文使用三维粘性流动计算软件Fine／Numeca,对某十五级轴流压气机进行了内流流场和全工况特性的数值计算尝试。分析了该压气机在设计工况和非设计工况的性能,同时把整机计算结果和前七级叶片的计算结果进行了比较。计算结果表明,当计算的级数较少时,目前的软件和硬件平台可以比较合理地预测压气机的全工况特性;而当计算的级数较多时,准确的数值模拟仍需要更为准确的多级模型和数值方法。     

An accurate method to predict the stress concentration in composite laminates with a circular hole under tensile loading

The paper presents a theoretical-numerical hybrid method for determining the stresses distribution in composite laminates containing a circular hole and subjected to uniaxial tensile loading. The method is based upon an appropriate corrective function allowing a simple and rapid evaluation of stress distributions in a generic plate of finite width with a hole based on the theoretical stresses distribution in an infinite plate with the same hole geometry and material. In order to verify the accuracy of the method proposed, various numerical and experimental tests have been performed by considering different laminate lay-ups; in particular, the experimental results have shown that a combined use of the method proposed and the well-know point-stress criterion leads to reliable strength predictions for GFRP or CFRP laminates with a circular hole. Russian translation published in Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 531–570, July–August, 2007.     

模糊神经网络在复合地基沉降量预测中的应用

复合地基后期沉降变形对于建筑物设计及安全具有重要意义,针对通过长期沉降观测以得到复合地基的最终沉降需要耗费较多资源的问题,提出了一种基于模糊神经网络的预测方法.该方法考虑沉降变化过程有较大的随机性和模糊性,直接将样本数据进行模糊化,所得的模糊数代表了样本点集与控制点集中各分量之间的相关度,并依此建立模糊BP神经网络进行学习和估算.实验结果表明了该方法对沉降进行预测是可行与有效的,且在相对误差的有效控制方面优于BP网络方法与灰色方法.     

不同常压流化床煤气化方案的模型预测 Ⅰ. 模型建立及验证

为评价不同气化方案对常压流化床气化的影响，从化学动力学角度并结合化学平衡建立了流化床气化模型，该模型考虑了煤热解和气化所经历的各反应过程。模型预测结果与文献报道的试验数据吻合较好，气化组分的平方误差和在10%左右，表明该模型可以用来预测各种气化方案对常压流化床气化的气化过程、生成煤气组分和气化效率等方面的影响。