Growth of Lévy trees

We construct random locally compact real trees called Lévy trees that are the genealogical trees associated with continuous-state branching processes. More precisely, we define a growing family of discrete Galton–Watson trees with i.i.d. exponential branch lengths that is consistent under Bernoulli percolation on leaves; we define the Lévy tree as the limit of this growing family with respect to the Gromov–Hausdorff topology on metric spaces. This elementary approach notably includes supercritical trees and does not make use of the height process introduced by Le Gall and Le Jan to code the genealogy of (sub)critical continuous-state branching processes. We construct the mass measure of Lévy trees and we give a decomposition along the ancestral subtree of a Poisson sampling directed by the mass measure. T. Duquesne is supported by NSF Grants DMS-0203066 and DMS-0405779. M. Winkel is supported by Aon and the Institute of Actuaries, EPSRC Grant GR/T26368/01, le département de mathématique de l’Université d’Orsay and NSF Grant DMS-0405779.     

Colliding stacks: A large deviations analysis

We analyze the performance of a prototypical scheme for shared storage allocation: two initially empty stacks evolving in a contiguous block of memory of size m. We treat the case in which the stacks are more likely to shrink than grow, but with the probabilities of insertion and deletion allowed to depend arbitrarily on stack height as a fraction of m. New results are obtained on the m → ∞ asymptotics of the stack collision time, and of the final stack heights. The results of Wentzell and Freidlin on the large deviations of Markov chains are used, and the relation of their formalism to the Hamiltonian formulation of classical mechanics is emphasized. Certain results on higher-order asymptotics follow from WKB expansions.     

利用微悬臂梁表面应力研究聚N-异丙基丙烯酰胺分子的构象转变

提出了一种基于微悬臂梁传感技术研究大分子折叠/构象转变的新方法.通过分子自组装的方法将热敏性的聚N-异丙基丙烯酰胺(PNIPAM)分子链修饰到微悬臂梁的单侧表面，用光杠杆技术检测温度在20—40℃之间变化时由于微悬臂梁上的PNIPAM分子在水中的构象转变所引起的微悬臂梁变形.实验结果显示：在升温过程中，微悬臂梁的表面应力发生了变化并且导致微悬臂梁产生了弯曲变形，这个过程对应着微悬臂梁上的PNIPAM分子从无规线团构象到塌缩小球构象的构象转变.在降温过程中，微悬臂梁发生了反方向的弯曲变形，这对应着PNIPA 关键词： 构象转变 聚N-异丙基丙烯酰胺分子链 表面应力 微悬臂梁     

火工品可靠性试验数据的综合分析方法

升降法试验数据和固定刺激量下的成败型试验数据,是两种最常见的火工品可靠性试验数据．我们应用Markov链,研究了升降法试验数据下,感度分布参数的极大似然估计的特性．在此基础上,应用Bootstrap方法和Bayes方法,给出了综合分析两种试验数据的方法．最后,将该方法应用于520底火的可靠性鉴定,得出了有益的结论．     

Nonparametric Density Estimation in Hidden Markov Models

Let { X n} be a Markov chain that is either f -mixing or satisfies the Poisson equation.In this note we obtain the convergence rate under L 1 -criterion for bounded functions of the X k 's. And in the hidden Markov model setup { (X n ,Y n ) }we study the kernel estimate of the density of the observed variables { Y n }when a 'stable' status is reached.     

Chaotic oscillations and noise transformations in a simple dissipative system with delayed feedback

We analyze the statistical behavior of signals in nonlinear circuits with delayed feedback in the presence of external Markovian noise. For the special class of circuits with intense phase mixing we develop an approach for the computation of the probability distributions and multitime correlation functions based on the random phase approximation. Both Gaussian and Kubo-Andersen models of external noise statistics are analyzed and the existence of the stationary (asymptotic) random process in the long-time limit is shown. We demonstrate that a nonlinear system with chaotic behavior becomes a noise amplifier with specific statistical transformation properties.     

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Since 1990:Some Personal Reflections

Abstract I reflect upon the development of nonlinear time series analysis since 1990 by focusing on five majorareas of development. These areas include the interface between nonlinear time series analysis and chaos,thenonparametric/semiparametric approach,nonlinear state space modelling,financial time series and nonlinearmodelling of panels of time series.     

标的股价服从混合过程的期权定价公式及有限元算法

本文将马尔科夫跳跃过程叠加于 Ito过程 ,形成混合过程 ,并用该过程来刻画股价走势情况。而后在标的股价服从混合过程的基础上 ,推导出了欧式看涨期权的定价公式 ,并对美式看跌期权定价给出了有限元算法。