Bayesian Prediction Analysis for Growth Curve Model Using Noninformative Priors

We apply a Bayesian approach to the problem of prediction in an unbalanced growth curve model using noninformative priors. Due to the complexity of the model, no analytic forms of the predictive densities are available. We propose both approximations and a prediction-oriented Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm for two types of prediction, namely the prediction of future observations for a new subject and the prediction of future values for a partially observed subject. They are illustrated and compared through real data and simulation studies. Two of the approximations compare favorably with the approximation in Fearn (1975, Biometrika, 62, 89–100) and are very comparable to the more accurate Rao-Blackwellization from Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm.     

Reductions of interval noncooperative games

Noncooperative games of a finite number of persons with interval-valued payoff functions are considered. The concept of an equilibrium situation is introduced. A reduction of such games to deterministic noncooperative games is proposed. Properties of the reduced games are discussed. Interval antagonistic and bimatrix games are examined, and illustrative examples are considered.     

用力敏传感器测量乙醇水溶液的表面张力系数与浓度的关系

用硅压阻式力敏传感器测量了纯水、乙醇的表面张力系数，并测量了不同浓度的乙醇水溶液的表面张力系数，得到了乙醇水溶液的表面张力系数随浓度的变化曲线．     

Global Solution of Optimization Problems with Parameter-Embedded Linear Dynamic Systems

This paper develops a theory for the global solution of nonconvex optimization problems with parameter-embedded linear dynamic systems. A quite general problem formulation is introduced and a solution is shown to exists. A convexity theory for integrals is then developed to construct convex relaxations for utilization in a branch-and-bound framework to calculate a global minimum. Interval analysis is employed to generate bounds on the state variables implied by the bounds on the embedded parameters. These bounds, along with basic integration theory, are used to prove convergence of the branch-and-bound algorithm to the global minimum of the optimization problem. The implementation of the algorithm is then considered and several numerical case studies are examined thoroughly     

水平管外强化凝结传热的数值解

以Nusselt理论为基础,运用三维坐标建立了肋片侧面的冷凝传热模型,对肋片侧面的冷凝传热机理进行了分析,得出了肋片侧面表面传热系数的积分表达式。利用此法对水平环肋单管表面传热系数进行计算并将结果与传统解法进行比较。     

高功率固体激光放大系统相位自校正方法研究

就光学元件间低频相位误差叠加提出用相关系数作为叠加相位结果的估计参量，并通过模拟计算和验证实验证明了相关系数能有效地对低频相位叠加结果进行比较估计，在此基础上就高功率固体激光放大系统中放大片的选取和安装提出了自校正方法并实现了自校正过程。     

Half-width temperature dependence of nitrogen broadened lines in the ν2 band of H2O

Forty-seven N₂ broadened water vapor line-widths have been measured in the 1845-2140 cm⁻¹ spectral range with a Fourier Transform spectrometer in the 258-330 K temperature range at a spectral resolution of 0.005 cm⁻¹ for the lines with upper state rotational quantum number up to 16. The measured exponents of the temperature dependence of the width exhibit a large range of values from 1.60 to −0.86. Theoretical calculations were made using a semi-empirical technique based on the Anderson theory. The calculated broadening coefficients as well as the temperature exponents for the half-width agree satisfactory with measured values.     

地面附近的高空核爆电磁脉冲环境

 主要研究在高空核爆的双指数类型电磁脉冲平面波入射时，地面附近的电磁脉冲环境。计算给出了在不同入射波状态，不同地表介质电气特性和距地面不同高度等条件下的电磁脉冲环境参数，归纳了一些规律性认识。结果显示：地面附近的电场会随距地面高度的不同而发生显著的变化，对于水平场分量，其反射场总是试图抵消入射场，而对于垂直场分量，其反射场叠加在入射场上，使得地面附近的垂直场强幅值一般大于入射波场强幅值；当入射波仰角增大时，合成电场波形的脉冲宽度会变宽；地表介质的电气特性参数不同也会对地面附近电场的波形和幅值造成一定的影响。     

变系数计量经济学联立模型的局部线性工具向量估计及其性质

联立方程计量经济学模型在经济政策制定、经济结构分析和经济预测方面起着重要作用。本文首次提出了我国宏观经济的一类变系数联立模型,并建立了函数系数的局部线性工具向量估计,同时在时间点列固定设计、经济变量随机设计条件下,研究了估计量的大样本性质。与我国宏观经济经典线性联立模型相比,变系数联立模型拟合效果更优。另外它也有助于克服我国宏观经济数据不多而造成的非参数方法应用困难的现实情况。     

湖南省各市州经济发展水平评价

本文利用主成分分析法分析了湖南各市州的经济发展水平和经济综合实力,对湖南省14个市州的经济发展情况做出综合评价,得出了各市州在湖南省的经济地位.最后用系统聚类分析法进行了验证,结果表明用多元统计分析法来评价地区经济发展水平是可行的.