Forecasting daily supermarket sales using exponentially weighted quantile regression

Inventory control systems typically require the frequent updating of forecasts for many different products. In addition to point predictions, interval forecasts are needed to set appropriate levels of safety stock. The series considered in this paper are characterised by high volatility and skewness, which are both time-varying. These features motivate the consideration of forecasting methods that are robust with regard to distributional assumptions. The widespread use of exponential smoothing for point forecasting in inventory control motivates the development of the approach for interval forecasting. In this paper, we construct interval forecasts from quantile predictions generated using exponentially weighted quantile regression. The approach amounts to exponential smoothing of the cumulative distribution function, and can be viewed as an extension of generalised exponential smoothing to quantile forecasting. Empirical results are encouraging, with improvements over traditional methods being particularly apparent when the approach is used as the basis for robust point forecasting.     

A RAPID APPROXIMATION FOR PREDICTING THE HYDROCARBON DISCOVERY RATE: PART 2. IMPROVING THE ACCURACY

In Part 1 of this paper, we noted the systematic errors in the estimates of means and standard deviations produced by a rapid approximation applied to a model of hydrocarbon discovery. In Part 2, we apply regression to predict the approximation errors, as functions of model parameters and approximation output. With the regression model, we can correct much of the error in the approximation, as we illustrate with data from the Nisku-Shelf play of western Canada.     

W-Mo系复合材料的制备及其特性波阻抗

 采用放电等离子烧结技术，在相同的温度（1 473 K）及压力（30 MPa）下，制备出不同配比的致密的W-Mo系复合材料样品。采用高精度超声波脉冲回波重合方法，精确测量了超声波在样品中传播的横、纵波声速，并由此得到样品的特性波阻抗值。对样品的相组成分析及电子探针分析的结果表明，W-Mo系复合材料主要是以W、Mo机械混合的形式通过粘结相获得致密化的。因此，选用混合物模型对其特性波阻抗值进行了理论预测，与实测值的比较表明该模型能对W-Mo系复合材料的特性波阻抗作出比较准确的预测。     

Delivery performance in vendor selection decisions

Increased reliance upon outsourcing has made the issue of vendor selection even more critical to the success of the modern manufacturing organization. The usual performance measure on which selection is based has been the distribution of the vendor’s delivery lead-time (LT), often as characterized by the mean and variance. In this paper, we show that the distribution of demand per unit time (DPUT) must also be considered if an optimal decision is to be made.     

应用线性回归方法对无形资产进行收益预测

无形资产评估对引导列形资产的建立和完善具有重要作用，收益法是常用的无形资产评估方法，而收益的预测是无形资产评估中的一个难题，本文以新疆某上市公司为例，尝试在无形资产评估方法中用多元线性回归进行收益预测。     

Uncertainty of chemical oxygen demand determination in wastewater samples

 The measurement uncertainty of the result of chemical oxygen demand determination in wastewater was evaluated. The major sources of uncertainty of the result of measurement were identified as the purity of reagents, volumetric operations, gravimetric operations, bias, and the repeatability of the method. Identification and evaluation of uncertainty sources was followed by combined uncertainty calculations. The combined uncertainty was compared to the experimentally determined variation and good agreement was found, indicating that the major uncertainty sources had been identified. The results show that the major sources of uncertainty arose from repeatability at high concentration level and volumetric steps at low concentration level, thus revealing the target operations for reducing the measurement uncertainty of this determination. Received: 5 August 2002 Accepted: 5 November 2002 Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Sport of the Republic of Slovenia (Project Z2–3530). Presented at CERMM-3, Central European Reference Materials and Measurements Conference: The function of reference materials in the measurement process, May 30–June 1, 2002, Rogaška Slatina, Slovenia Correspondence to A. Drolc     

基于预测有效度的组合预测方法冗余信息的判定

基于预测方法有效度的概念 ,建立了考虑预测精度标准差的预测有效度的组合模型 ,提出了几个新的概念 ,给出冗余信息出现的两个判定定理 .并用实例说明判定定理的有效性 .     

Joint pricing and inventory control with a Markovian demand model

We consider the joint pricing and inventory control problem for a single product over a finite horizon and with periodic review. The demand distribution in each period is determined by an exogenous Markov chain. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. The surplus costs as well as fixed and variable costs are state dependent. We show the existence of an optimal (s, S, p)-type feedback policy for the additive demand model. We extend the model to the case of emergency orders. We compute the optimal policy for a class of Markovian demand and illustrate the benefits of dynamic pricing over fixed pricing through numerical examples. The results indicate that it is more beneficial to implement dynamic pricing in a Markovian demand environment with a high fixed ordering cost or with high demand variability.     

基于对数灰关联度的加权几何平均组合预测模型的有效性

基于对数灰关联度的加权几何平均组合预测是一种新的非线性组合预测。针对该方法提出新的优性组合预测、预测方法优超、冗余度等概念,给出优性组合预测存在的充分条件,最后证明冗余预测方法的一个判定定理。     

生产率、需求率、变质率及损失率均随时间变化的生产库存模型

建立了生产率、需求率、变质率及损失率均随时间变化的生产库存模型,在假定了(I)变质率线性依赖于时间及库存开始点;(II)损失率线性依赖于时间及短缺量拖后供货的结束点的前提下,给出了寻求最优策略的方法,指出了文[10]中不合理的假设,并以实际的例子与已有结果作比较,其结果为生产管理部门的决策提供了理论依据.