Analysis of risk bounds in partially specified additive factor models

The study of worst case scenarios for risk measures (e.g. the Value at Risk) when the underlying risk vector (or portfolio of risks) is not completely specified is a central topic in the literature on robust risk measurement. In this paper we discuss partially specified factor models as introduced in Bernard et al. (2017) in more detail for the class of additive factor models which admit more explicit results. These results allow to describe in more detail the reduction of risk bounds obtainable by this method in dependence on the degree of positive resp. negative dependence induced by the systematic risk factors. The insight may help in applications of this reduction method to get a better qualitative impression on the range of influence of the partially specified factor structure.     

Allostatic load as a complex clinical construct: A case‐based computational modeling approach

Allostatic load (AL) is a complex clinical construct, providing a unique window into the cumulative impact of stress. However, due to its inherent complexity, AL presents two major measurement challenges to conventional statistical modeling (the field's dominant methodology): it is comprised of a complex causal network of bioallostatic systems, represented by an even larger set of dynamic biomarkers; and, it is situated within a web of antecedent socioecological systems, linking AL to differences in health outcomes and disparities. To address these challenges, we employed case‐based computational modeling (CBM), which allowed us to make four advances: (1) we developed a multisystem, 7‐factor (20 biomarker) model of AL's network of allostatic systems; (2) used it to create a catalog of nine different clinical AL profiles (causal pathways); (3) linked each clinical profile to a typology of 23 health outcomes; and (4) explored our results (post hoc) as a function of gender, a key socioecological factor. In terms of highlights, (a) the Healthy clinical profile had few health risks; (b) the pro‐inflammatory profile linked to high blood pressure and diabetes; (c) Low Stress Hormones linked to heart disease, TIA/Stroke, diabetes, and circulation problems; and (d) high stress hormones linked to heart disease and high blood pressure. Post hoc analyses also found that males were overrepresented on the High Blood Pressure (61.2%), Metabolic Syndrome (63.2%), High Stress Hormones (66.4%), and High Blood Sugar (57.1%); while females were overrepresented on the Healthy (81.9%), Low Stress Hormones (66.3%), and Low Stress Antagonists (stress buffers) (95.4%) profiles. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 291–306, 2016     

微量元素与脑卒中(2)

脑卒中是目前中国最重要的公共卫生问题,正以其高发病率、高死亡率对我国造成巨大的社会、经济困难。从脑卒中的流行病学特征、脑卒中发病的危险因素、脑卒中患者的微量元素失衡及微量元素检测的临床意义四个方面阐述了微量元素与脑卒中的关系。     

A non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modelling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind index is bounded from both above and below and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard in the context of modelling the wind power production index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically generated assuming a constant level of installed capacity. Also, based on 1 year of observed prices for wind power futures with different delivery periods, we study the market price of risk. Generally, we find a negative risk premium whose magnitude decreases as the length of the delivery period increases. To further demonstrate the benefits of our proposed model, we address the pricing of European options written on wind power futures, which can be achieved through Fourier techniques.     

On the inclusion of collisional correlations in quantum dynamics

We present a formalism to describe collisional correlations responsible for thermalization effects in finite quantum systems. The approach consists in a stochastic extension of time dependent mean field theory. Correlations are treated in time dependent perturbation theory and loss of coherence is assumed at some time intervals allowing a stochastic reduction of the correlated dynamics in terms of a stochastic ensemble of time dependent mean-fields. This theory was formulated long ago in terms of density matrices but never applied in practical cases because of its complexity. We propose here a reformulation of the theory in terms of wave functions and use a simplified 1D model of cluster and molecules allowing to test the theory in a schematic but realistic manner. We illustrate the performance in terms of several observables, in particular global moments of the density matrix and single particle entropy built on occupation numbers. The occupation numbers remain fixed in time dependent mean-field propagation and change when evaluating the correlations, then taking fractional values. They converge asymptotically towards Fermi distributions which is a clear indication of thermalization.     

Large‐scale Experimental Study on the Effects of Flooring Materials on Combustion Behavior of Thermoplastics

The effects of flooring materials on the combustion behavior of thermoplastics is investigated. Based on the ISO 9705 fire test setup, an experimental rig was designed. Full‐scale experiments of PP combustion were carried out using five flooring boards, namely gypsum, steel, wood, ceramic tile and PVC. The experimental results indicate that the flooring boards play an important role in the heat release rates of typical thermoplastics combustion. Specifically, the time for the sharp increase of heat release rate is generally later for the flooring boards with larger thermal conductivity, except for the case of PVC. Preliminary analyses suggest that the reason for the exception of PVC is the expansion and carbonization of PVC at high temperature. In addition, experimental results also show that the corresponding peak heat release rate of thermoplastics combustion would be generally smaller for the flooring board with a larger thermal mass, except for the case of gypsum. The primary cause for the exception of gypsum may be the heat absorption by the crystal water released from the gypsum during the burning of hot pool oil.     

Electronuclear multiconfiguration time‐dependent hartree calculations on the confined H atom with mobile electron and nucleus

A multiconfiguration time‐dependent Hartree method oriented toward calculations of a non‐Born‐Oppenheimer nature has been applied to the calculation of the dynamical properties of a confined H atom. The calculation is fully six‐dimensional and does not take into account constraints arising from linear or angular momentum conservation. The orbital evolution is monitored and the energy level spectrum of the system, as well as the dependence of the results on the decomposition of the Hamiltonian and on the correlation between radial degrees of freedom, is determined. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.