A stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations involving age and race

In this paper, we derive a stochastic model for the HIV epidemic in homosexual populations involving age and race. To account for effects of different mixing patterns, a low risk selection rule is introduced. The model is then formulated in terms of chain multinomial distributions by means of which the means are derived. Some simulation studies by computer indicate clearly that age and race have a significant impact on the HIV epidemic.     

A methodology for measuring the relative effectiveness of healthcare services

^** Email: giorgio.vittadini{at}unimib.it^*** Email: simona.minotti{at}unicatt.it In this paper we propose a methodology for measuring the ‘relativeeffectiveness’ of healthcare services (i.e. the effectof hospital care on patients) under general conditions, in which:) a healthcare outcome underlies qualitative and quantitativeobservable indicators; ß) we are interested in studyingthe simultaneous dependency of multiple outcomes on covariates(where the outcomes can also be correlated to each other); )the relative effectiveness is adjusted for hospital-specificcovariates; ) we hypothesise a general distribution for randomdisturbances and the random parameters of relative effectiveness.For this topic, a generalisation of the SURE (seemingly unrelatedregression equations) multilevel model is proposed. The solutionsare obtained by means of Bayesian inference methods. Since thereis currently no software available to estimate this model, anSAS procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods hasbeen developed by the authors, in line with Goldstein &Spiegelhalter (1996, J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A, 159, 385–443),Spiegelhalter et al. (1996, Bayesian Using Gibbs Sampling Manual.Cambridge: MRC Biostatistic Unit, Institute of Public Health)and Albert & Chib (1997, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 92, 916–925).In addition, a new theoretical result regarding the joint posteriordistribution for the parameters is provided. The model proposedhas been implemented for an effectiveness study of a selectionof Lombard hospitals.     

The Distributions of the Frequency of Occurrence of Nucleotide Subsequences

The objective is to derive the probability distribution of the frequency of occurrence of a subsequence within a nucleotide sequence under the hypothesis that the four nucleotides occur at random and with equal probability. We also consider the Compound Poisson approximation for the same distribution. The exact probability distribution can be obtained by the finite Markov chain imbedding technique introduced by Fu and Koutras (1994), however we can manage the case as well if the probabilities are not all equal. The compound Poisson approximation by Stein-Chen's method can be used to develop an approximate probability distribution with proper setting of the definition of the sets of dependence. Such structure gives a bound on the total variation distance, which tends to get relatively larger as the frequency goes up. AMS 2000 Subject Classification: Primary: 60E05; Secondary: 60J10     

Cu2Sc2Ge4O13, a novel germanate isotypic with the quasi-1D compound Cu2Fe2Ge4O13 between 100 and 298 K

The germanate compound Cu₂Sc₂Ge₄O₁₃ has been synthesized by solid-state ceramic sintering techniques between 1173 and 1423 K. The structure was solved from single-crystal data by Patterson methods. The title compound is monoclinic, a=12.336(2) Å, b=8.7034(9) Å, c=4.8883(8) Å, β=95.74(2), space group P2₁/m, Z=4. The compound is isotypic with Cu₂Fe₂Ge₄O₁₃, described very recently. The structure consists of crankshaft-like chains of edge-sharing ScO₆ octahedra running parallel to the crystallographic b-axis. These chains are linked laterally by [Cu₂O₆]⁸⁻ dimers forming a sheet of metal-oxygen-polyhedra within the a-b plane. These sheets are separated along the c-axis by [Ge₄O₁₃]¹⁰⁻ units. Cooling to 100 K does not alter the crystallographic symmetry of Cu₂Sc₂Ge₄O₁₃. While the b, c lattice parameter and the unit cell volume show a positive linear thermal expansion (α=6.4(2)×10⁻⁶, 5.0(2)×10⁻⁶ and 8.3(2)×10⁻⁶ K⁻¹ respectively), the a lattice parameter exhibits a negative thermal expansion (α=−3.0(2)×10⁻⁶ K⁻¹) for the complete T-range investigated. This negative thermal expansion of a is mainly due to the increase of the Cu-Cu interatomic distance, which is along the a-axis. Average bond lengths remain almost constant between 100 and 298 K, whereas individual ones partly show both significant shortages and lengthening.     

Asymptotic Behaviour of the Number of Labelled Essential Acyclic Digraphs and Labelled Chain Graphs

We provide an asymptotic formula for the number of labelled essential DAGs a_n and show that lim_na_n/a_n=c, where a_n is the number of labelled DAGs and c13.65, which is interesting in the field of Bayesian networks. Furthermore, we present an asymptotic formula for the number of labelled chain graphs.Acknowledgment. I would like to thank Prof. Peter Grabner for his support and very helpful discussions, which where constitutive for this article. I am also thankful to the referees for their comments.This Research was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF), START-Project Y96-MATFinal version received: January 28, 2004     

Quantum Computation in a Ising Spin Chain Taking into Account Second Neighbor Couplings

We consider the realization of a quantum computer in a chain of nuclear spins coupled by an Ising interaction. Quantum algorithms can be performed with the help of appropriate radio-frequency pulses. In addition to the standard nearest-neighbor Ising coupling, we also allow for a second neighbor coupling. It is shown, how to apply the 2π k method in this more general setting, where the additional coupling eventually allows to save a few pulses. We illustrate our results with two numerical simulations: the Shor prime factorization of the number 4 and the teleportation of a qubit along a chain of 3 qubits. In both cases, the optimal Rabi frequency (to suppress non-resonant effects) depends primarily on the strength of the second neighbor interaction.     

Layouts for mobility management in wireless ATM networks

In this paper, we present a new model that combines quality of service and mobility aspects in wireless ATM networks. Namely, besides the hop count and load parameters of the basic ATM layouts, we introduce a new notion of distance that estimates the time needed to reconstruct the virtual channel of a wireless user when he moves through the network. Quality of service guarantee dictates that the rerouting phase must be imperceptible, that is, the maximum distance between two virtual channels must be maintained as low as possible. Therefore, a natural combinatorial problem arises in which suitable trade-offs must be determined between the different performance measures. We first show that establishing the existence of a layout with maximum hop count h, load l and distance d is NP-complete, even in the very restricted case h=2, l=1 and d=1. We then provide optimal layout constructions for basic interconnection networks, such as chains and rings.     

Ultrasound irradiation alters the spatial structure and improves the antioxidant activity of the yellow tea polysaccharide

In this study, the impact of ultrasound irradiation on the structural characteristics and antioxidant properties of yellow tea polysaccharides with different molecular weights (Mw) were investigated. Native yellow tea polysaccharide containing YTPS-3N, YTPS-5N and YTPS-7N were prepared through precipitation with ethanol at various concentrations of 30%, 50%, and 70%, respectively, and irradiated with high intensity ultrasound (20 kHz) for 55 min to yield yellow tea polysaccharide including YTPS-3U, YTPS-5U and YTPS-7U. The molecular weight (Mw) of YTPS-3N (from 37.7 to 15.1 kDa) and YTPS-5N (from 14.6 to 5.2 kDa) sharply decreased upon ultrasound irradiation, coincidentally particle size (Zavg) was also significantly reduced for YTPS-3N (40%), YTPS-5N (48%) and YTPS-7N (54%). The high-performance liquid chromatography and Fourier transform-infrared spectroscopy analysis revealed a partial degradation of native yellow tea polysaccharide treated with ultrasound, though the monosaccharide composition was not altered. Furthermore, changes in morphology and the breakdown of native yellow tea polysaccharide upon irradiation was confirmed with the circular dichroism spectrum, atomic force and scanning electron microscopy. As a consequence, irradiation of yellow tea polysaccharide increased free radical scavenging activity with YTPS-7U exhibiting the highest levels of 2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl free radical, superoxide and hydroxyl radicals scavenging activity. These results suggest that the alteration of the spatial structure of yellow tea polysaccharide can enhance its antioxidant activity which is an important property for functional foods or medicines.     

“Exact” and Approximate Methods for Bayesian Inference: Stochastic Volatility Case Study

We conduct a case study in which we empirically illustrate the performance of different classes of Bayesian inference methods to estimate stochastic volatility models. In particular, we consider how different particle filtering methods affect the variance of the estimated likelihood. We review and compare particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), RMHMC, fixed-form variational Bayes, and integrated nested Laplace approximation to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters. Additionally, we conduct the review from the point of view of whether these methods are (1) easily adaptable to different model specifications; (2) adaptable to higher dimensions of the model in a straightforward way; (3) feasible in the multivariate case. We show that when using the stochastic volatility model for methods comparison, various data-generating processes have to be considered to make a fair assessment of the methods. Finally, we present a challenging specification of the multivariate stochastic volatility model, which is rarely used to illustrate the methods but constitutes an important practical application.