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601.
602.
Robust supply chain network design with service level against disruptions and demand uncertainties: A real-life case 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Atefeh Baghalian Shabnam Rezapour Reza Zanjirani Farahani 《European Journal of Operational Research》2013
We have developed a stochastic mathematical formulation for designing a network of multi-product supply chains comprising several capacitated production facilities, distribution centres and retailers in markets under uncertainty. This model considers demand-side and supply-side uncertainties simultaneously, which makes it more realistic in comparison to models in the existing literature. In this model, we consider a discrete set as potential locations of distribution centres and retailing outlets and investigate the impact of strategic facility location decisions on the operational inventory and shipment decisions of the supply chain. We use a path-based formulation that helps us to consider supply-side uncertainties that are possible disruptions in manufacturers, distribution centres and their connecting links. The resultant model, which incorporates the cut-set concept in reliability theory and also the robust optimisation concept, is a mixed integer nonlinear problem. To solve the model to attain global optimality, we have created a transformation based on the piecewise linearisation method. Finally, we illustrate the model outputs and discuss the results through several numerical examples, including a real-life case study from the agri-food industry. 相似文献
603.
On the use of fuzzy inference techniques in assessment models: part II: industrial applications 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
In this paper, we study the applicability of the monotone output property and the output resolution property in fuzzy assessment
models to two industrial Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) problems. First, the effectiveness of the monotone output
property in a single-input fuzzy assessment model is demonstrated with a proposed fuzzy occurrence model. Then, the usefulness
of the two properties to a multi-input fuzzy assessment model, i.e., the Bowles fuzzy Risk Priority Number (RPN) model, is
assessed. The experimental results indicate that both the fuzzy occurrence model and Bowles fuzzy RPN model are able to fulfill
the monotone output property, with the derived conditions (in Part I) satisfied. In addition, the proposed rule refinement
technique is able to improve the output resolution property of the Bowles fuzzy RPN model. 相似文献
604.
本文运用ARMA-GARCH-M计量经济学模型,以及国际上通行的风险评价指标VAR,通过计算沪深两市的VAR值,比较两市的整体投资风险,以及各自的风险特点,并对模型的有效性进行了Kupiec检验,为投资者控制市场风险提供参考. 相似文献
605.
In the Lee–Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables. 相似文献
606.
将复合广义齐次poisson过程的多险种风险模型推广到带干扰的一种新模型,运用鞅方法破产概率满足的Lundberg不等式和一般公式. 相似文献
607.
608.
Nikolas Topaloglou Hercules Vladimirou Stavros A. Zenios 《European Journal of Operational Research》2008
We develop a multi-stage stochastic programming model for international portfolio management in a dynamic setting. We model uncertainty in asset prices and exchange rates in terms of scenario trees that reflect the empirical distributions implied by market data. The model takes a holistic view of the problem. It considers portfolio rebalancing decisions over multiple periods in accordance with the contingencies of the scenario tree. The solution jointly determines capital allocations to international markets, the selection of assets within each market, and appropriate currency hedging levels. We investigate the performance of alternative hedging strategies through extensive numerical tests with real market data. We show that appropriate selection of currency forward contracts materially reduces risk in international portfolios. We further find that multi-stage models consistently outperform single-stage models. Our results demonstrate that the stochastic programming framework provides a flexible and effective decision support tool for international portfolio management. 相似文献
609.
In the field of portfolio selection, variance, semivariance and probability of an adverse outcome are three best-known mathematical definitions of risk. Lots of models were built to minimize risk based on these definitions. This paper gives a new definition of risk for portfolio selection and proposes a new type of model based on this definition. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is employed to solve the optimization problem in general cases. One numerical example is also presented for the sake of illustration. 相似文献
610.
Operating reserve assessment has become increasingly important in the new utility environment in which ancillary services have been assigned a value. This paper presents a procedure for compulsory provision of spinning reserve using a risk-constrained cost-based mechanism. In this mechanism, the electrical energy and spinning reserve are dealt with simultaneously because the provision of reserve cannot be decoupled from the provision of energy. Generators are paid the opportunity cost associated with their reduced energy because compulsion is financially unattractive among them. The transmission system reliability is considered in a simplified manner when computing composite system risk. In the proposed structure, the Independent System Operator (ISO) is responsible for reliability management and is thus responsible for providing sufficient reserve on behalf of the users of the system. The method is applied to the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS Rev. 140) is used to solve the mixed integer nonlinear co-optimization problems. 相似文献