汶川地震滑坡与地震参数及地质地貌因素之间的相关关系

采用大涡模拟方法,模拟了槽道湍流,得到了不同雷诺数下槽道湍流的结果. 在此基 础上,研究了平均速度、雷诺应力、脉动动能和脉动速度均方根的分布;讨论了平均速度的 壁面律问题;给出了雷诺应力、脉动动能和脉动速度均方根随雷诺数的变化规律,其中雷诺 应力、脉动动能给出了定量公式.     

甘肃省舟曲8.7特大泥石流调查研究

本文通过对甘肃省舟曲县城后山三眼峪沟和罗家峪沟特大泥石流灾害的现场调查,从泥石流形成的地形、地质和降雨条件入手,分析了特大泥石流灾害的特征与成因：三眼峪沟和罗家峪沟泥石流形成区在2010年8月7日23～24时的1h降雨量达77.3mm,暴雨形成强大洪水依次冲毁两条沟内的天然堆石坝和人工拦挡坝,形成规模巨大的高容重黏性泥石流,泥石流冲出总量和泥沙总量分别为 144.2×10⁴m³和97.7×10⁴m³; 泥石流携带具有强大冲击力的巨石冲毁房屋5500余间; 在白龙江内形成长约550m,宽约70m,高约10m的堰塞坝并形成堰塞湖,堰塞湖回水长3km,使县城一半被淹; 泥石流造成1744人死亡和失踪。分析研究表明,三眼峪沟和罗家峪沟泥石流如果在近期遭遇强降雨还会暴发泥石流,但规模比87特大泥石流小;如果强降雨发生在数年后,暴发的泥石流规模比87特大泥石流略小;在20a或更长的时期内,没有发生新的地震影响下,在三眼峪沟和罗家峪沟经历一次大规模泥石流暴发后,泥石流的规模将回到汶川地震前的水平。     

汶川特大地震中山岭隧道变形破坏特征及影响因素分析

汶川大地震造成位于震中附近的都江堰-汶川公路多座隧道严重受损。本文通过现场调研、资料收集与分析,将地震区山岭隧道变形破坏的基本类型概括为洞口边坡崩塌与滑塌、洞门裂损、衬砌及围岩坍塌、衬砌开裂及错位、底板开裂及隆起、初期支护变形及开裂等。分析其影响因素,认为发震断裂的次级断层、基覆界面、洞口不稳定斜坡、高地应力环境下的软弱围岩对隧道强烈震害具有控制作用。以汶川地震给予隧道抗震的启示,建议强震区的山岭隧道应将洞口边坡防护、洞口明洞和洞门结构作为一个系统进行综合设计,在条件允许的情况下尽可能采用削竹式洞门结构;隧道穿越活动断裂带的次级断层时在其两侧一定范围内二次衬砌应采用钢筋混凝土结构;基覆界面、围岩软岩与硬岩之间的过渡地带、围岩质量突变地带等应采用改善围岩力学性质且让其渐变的措施进行处理。     

A Linear Complementarity Approach for the Non-convex Seismic Frictional Interaction between Adjacent Structures under Instabilizing Effects*

The paper deals with a numerical treatment of the dynamic hemivariational inequality problem concerning the elastoplastic-fracturing unilateral contact with friction between neighboring structures under second-order geometric effects during earthquakes. The numerical procedure is based on an incremental problem formulation and on a double discretization, in space by the finite element method and in time by the Houbolt method. The generally nonconvex constitutive contact laws are piece-wise linearized, and in each time-step a nonconvex linear complementarity problem is solved with a reduced number of unknowns.     

埋设管线穿过不同介质时的地震反应研究

本文应用表面波理论计算埋设管线穿过不均匀场地时的地震反应。用带竖直断面的分层介质模拟不均匀场地。从断面两侧的变形、应力连续条件近似确定两侧由表面波引起的场地运动,将所得的场地运动输入到以弹性地基梁模拟的管线上,得出管线的地震反应。最后通过计算实例对结果进行了比较分析。     

Bayesian approaches for analyzing earthquake catastrophic risk

Extreme value theory has been widely used in analyzing catastrophic risk. The theory mentioned that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) could be used to estimate the limiting distribution of the excess value over a certain threshold; thus the tail behaviors are analyzed. However, the central behavior is important because it may affect the estimation of model parameters in GPD, and the evaluation of catastrophic insurance premiums also depends on the central behavior. This paper proposes four mixture models to model earthquake catastrophic loss and proposes Bayesian approaches to estimate the unknown parameters and the threshold in these mixture models. MCMC methods are used to calculate the Bayesian estimates of model parameters, and deviance information criterion values are obtained for model comparison. The earthquake loss of Yunnan province is analyzed to illustrate the proposed methods. Results show that the estimation of the threshold and the shape and scale of GPD are quite different. Value-at-risk and expected shortfall for the proposed mixture models are calculated under different confidence levels.     

Prediction problem for target events based on the inter-event waiting time

In this paper we address the problem of forecasting the target events of a time series given the distribution ξ of time gaps between target events. Strong earthquakes and stock market crashes are the two types of such events that we are focusing on. In the series of earthquakes, as McCann et al. show [W.R. Mc Cann, S.P. Nishenko, L.R. Sykes, J. Krause, Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries, Pure and Applied Geophysics 117 (1979) 1082-1147], there are well-defined gaps (called seismic gaps) between strong earthquakes. On the other hand, usually there are no regular gaps in the series of stock market crashes [M. Raberto, E. Scalas, F. Mainardi, Waiting-times and returns in high-frequency financial data: an empirical study, Physica A 314 (2002) 749-755]. For the case of seismic gaps, we analytically derive an upper bound of prediction efficiency given the coefficient of variation of the distribution ξ. For the case of stock market crashes, we develop an algorithm that predicts the next crash within a certain time interval after the previous one. We show that this algorithm outperforms random prediction. The efficiency of our algorithm sets up a lower bound of efficiency for effective prediction of stock market crashes.     

Earthquake Forecasting Using Neural Networks: Results and Future Work

In 1994, a new earthquake forecasting method was developed, that integrated in a neural network several forecasting tools that had been originally developed for financial analysis. This method was tested with the seismicity of the Azores, predicting the July, 1998, and the January, 2004, earthquakes, albeit within very wide time and location windows. Work is beginning to integrate physical precursors in the neural network, in order to narrow the forecasting windows     

Variations of soil radon and thoron concentrations in a fault zone and prospective earthquakes in SW Taiwan

An automatic station for soil gas monitoring was set up on an active fault zone of SW Taiwan. After more than one year of continuous measurements, some spike-like anomalous high radon and thoron concentrations could be observed. A similar soil radon spectrum was also obtained from an independent monitoring station, which was only 100 m away. These anomalous peaks usually occurred a few days or weeks before the earthquakes (M_L4.5). This indicates that variations of both soil radon and thoron can serve as useful tools for earthquake surveillance, esp. at fault zones.     

土质边坡震裂机制物理模拟研究

为了研究地震中土质边坡(包括覆盖层边坡)在强震作用下破裂的成因机制,以 "5 ·12" 汶川特大地震为背景资料,采用震动台模拟试验进行了研究。模拟试验结果表明:斜坡震裂变形破坏与斜坡外形结构特征具有相关性。坡面转折点应力最易集中,破坏的可能性较大。震动条件下土质边坡完全破坏也具有一般性的规律,即以"一垮到底"的方式堆积于坡脚。本次震裂边坡形成机制研究初步显示了一定规律,但在地震条件下的动力响应问题还需进行更深入研究。